Experts

  • Position : Chairman of the Executive Board; Chairman of the "Trialogue" Club International
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
  • Affiliation : President, President, The Middle East Institute (MEI)
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International Security Index iSi increased to 2830 points. Buzhinsky, Satanovsky comment events of the week

10.04.2013

MOSCOW, APRIL 10, 2013. PIR PRESS –“The Korean peninsula where bellicose rhetoric between North and South Korea has gained momentum is another hotbed of tension. Despite the statement of the North’s readiness to start war with the South, I'm sure that there will be no real swar. Otherwise, it would mean the end of the North Korean regime. There are no reasons to rely on Russia’s and China’s (primarily China’s) military aid. And alone North Korea is clearly going to lose.  It should be taken into account that here is neither nuclear weapons in North Korea, no reliable delivering mechanisms with a range of over 1,800 km”, - PIR Center Senior Vice President, Lieutenant General (Retired) Evgeny Buzhinsky

During the week of April 1 - 8, 2013, the International Security Index iSi increased to 2830 points. The DPRK authorities advised foreign diplomats to leave the country due to increased tensions on the Korean peninsula. Meanwhile, the USA postponed the test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, not to provoke further escalation of the situation. In Syria, the army repelled the attacks of armed groups on the outskirts of Deraa and Aleppo; Dailami town on the highway Damascus-Deraa was captured by rebels. In Alma-Ata another round of talks between six of international mediators and Iran on the nuclear program of IRI ended without visible results. In Egypt, clashes between Christians and Muslims broke out. On the West Bank in several Palestinian cities protests due to the death of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails erupted. In response, the Israeli Air Force bombed the Gaza Strip. In Mali, the islamists entered the town of Timbuktu and clashed with the regular army. In Sudan, the government signed a peace agreement with the rebels of Darfur. Major terrorist attacks occurred in Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq. In Myanmar, a Muslim religious school caught fire; more than 13 people were killed. In Japan, at the storage plant Fukushima-1 47 tons of radioactive water leaked.

Comments on the week's events by members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center

Evgeny Buzhinsky (Russia), PIR Center Senior Vice President, Lieutenant General (Retired)  by phone from Moscow: The level of security in Eurasia has reduced considerably. Among the main reasons of deterioration of situation are the events in the Middle East. In Syria, the civil war continues. It is noteworthy that the recent talks about a diplomatic solution of the conflict have stopped. Now there are more talks on a war till the final victory. Destabilizing effect on the security of the region have renewed Israeli bombing of the Gaza Strip in response to Palestinian rocket attacks on Israeli towns. The Korean peninsula where bellicose rhetoric between North and South Korea has gained momentum is another hotbed of tension. Despite the statement of the North’s readiness to start war with the South, I'm sure that there will be no real swar. Otherwise, it would mean the end of the North Korean regime. There are no reasons to rely on Russia’s and China’s (primarily China’s) military aid. And alone North Korea is clearly going to lose.  It should be taken into account that here is neither nuclear weapons in North Korea, no reliable delivering mechanisms with a range of over 1,800 km.

The UN General Assembly adopted the International Arms Trade Treaty - the first legally binding instrument establishing common rules for arms market. But I think that the new agreement won’t bring anything substantial, except additional transparency in conventional arms. Eternal since the Cold War dispute between the West and Russia with China: terrorists or freedom fighters have not been decided once again. So everything will take its course - the West arming Syrian rebels, Russia - supply weapons to the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

Evgeny Satanovsky (Russia), President of the Institute of Middle East Studies – by phone from Moscow: In Astana in March and April took place negotiations between six international mediators and Iran on nuclear program of IRI. These talks were the first in six month’s period. The aim of the international community was to find compromise with Iran over its nuclear program. But the talks have failed again. In my view, the negotiations themselves are necessary for maintaining a dialogue between the parties. In this their effectiveness can be assessed as one hundred percent. But the effectiveness of negotiations of six international mediators or any other venues aimed to resolve the Iranian nuclear program equals zero.  

In Mali, the military campaign of France and the government forces against the Islamists who seized the north of the country is coming to its end. Assessing the progress and development of this operation, I can say that it was carried out with all possible errors that the U.S. and NATO forces have already committed in Afghanistan. Islamists went into the desert and French successes costs little. While each crisis is unique and each is solved in different ways, we have to remember that the politics is politics, and the war is war.

In the summer of 2013, the situation in the world will deteriorates due to the ongoing conflict in the Arab world; Islamists will fight with secular regimes, Salafi with Muslim Brotherhood, tribes, clans, and criminal groups, Muslims and Christians will confront each other. Above all the upcoming presidential elections in Iran will provoke chauvinist hysteria coupled with little success of the Western policy towards the Middle East.

For all the questions concerning the International Security Index please contact Galiya Ibragimova by e-mail ibragimova at pircenter.org

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