Experts

  • Affiliation : Chairman of the Executive Board, PIR Center; Co-Chair of the Trialogue Club International.
  • Affiliation : Director, Bylim Karvoni Nongovernental Research and Training Center
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International Security Index iSi increased to 2810 points. Tolipov, Buzhinsky comment events of the week.

26.06.2013

MOSCOW, JUNE 26, 2013. PIR PRESS  “In April was announced the upcoming signing of the agreement "On strategic partnership" between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and in June, during the visit of President Nursultan Nazarbayev to Tashkent, the official signing of this important document took place. Such rapprochement is an important positive sign in context of regional development of the entire Central Asia”,director of the private research and educational center "Bilim Karvon" ("Caravan of knowledge") Farhad Tolipov.

The new weekly International Security Index iSi was published in Kommersant (in Russian).

During the week of June 17-24, 2013, the International Security Index iSi increased to 2810 points. In Syria, the fighting between the army and the opposition continued on the outskirts of Damascus and Aleppo; clashes took place on the border of Syria and Jordan, as well as near the border of Syria and Turkey. In Egypt, on the eve of opposition demonstrations against the policies of the Islamists, the rallies in support of President Mohammed Morsi took place. In Turkey, anti-government protests continued; the agreement between the government and protesters on the peaceful end of the protests was broken by the authorities. In Afghanistan, the Taliban attacked a U.S. military base in Bagram. Meanwhile, in Qatar negotiations between the United States and the Taliban were thwarted because of the refusal of Hamid Karzai to participte. In the north of Nigeria, 48 people were killed due to the militants’ massacre.  Terrorist attacks occurred in Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Somalia. In Brazil, mass protests due to the authorities heavy spending for preparing to the World Cup 2014 occurred. In Bulgaria demonstrations against the policies of the government continued. Global stock markets experienced the largest fall of quotations in the last year and a half. Russia and the United States signed a new framework agreement on nuclear threat reduction. In Northern Ireland G-8 the summit took place.  

Comments on the week's events by members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center

Farhad Tolipov (Uzbekistan) - Director of the private research and educational center "Bilim Karvon"("Caravan of knowledge") - by phone from Tashkent: The state of security in Central Asia has deteriorated. The latest unrest in Kyrgyzstan reminded of the Arab Spring and exacerbated the situation in the region. Instability on the Uzbek-Kyrgyz border, prevailing since January 2013, drew attention to the unresolved border issue. The introduction of the visa regime between the Russian Federation and the republics of Central Asia may affect regional situation in the negative sense. Obviously, if this happened the relationship of the region with Russia would significantly worsen. Among the positive developments should be mentioned an improvement of the Uzbek-Kazakh relations. In April was announced the upcoming signing of the agreement "On strategic partnership" between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and in June, during the visit of President Nursultan Nazarbayev to Tashkent, the official signing of this important document took place. Such rapprochement is an important positive sign in context of regional development of the entire Central Asia

In general, I think, with the approach of an important for the region 2014 – security situation in Central Asia will improve. In anticipation of this year Uzbekistan is likely to enter a phase of major political changes. In this context, the improvement of relations between the countries of the region is a positive trend of development.

Statement by Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Robert Blake that the United States do not see signs of the terrorist threat in Central Asia growing after the scheduled for the end of 2014 withdrawal of ISAF from Afghanistan, lead us to expect that the Fall-Winter of 2013 will be quiet.

Evgeny Buzhinsky (Russia), PIR Center Senior Vice President, Lieutenant General (Retired)  by phone from Moscow: The armed conflict in Syria continues to have the most negative impact on security in the Middle East. In recent months it has gained a new dimension due to the open intervention of Hezbollah on the side of Bashar al-Assad. The conflict is likely to spread to the territory of Lebanon. Recent successes of the government forces, claims of the authorities that opposition fighters used and continue to plan the use of chemical weapons in Syria, the growing dissatisfaction of the Turkish population with th anti-Asad policy of Erdogan - all these events make the U.S. government and the European Union nervous. They begin to realize that without outside intervention Assad could not be defeated. But the intervention without UN Security Council mandate is unacceptable for them (especially for the Europeans). I think in the near future the opposition will be strongly pressured in order to start negotiating with representatives of the Syrian government in the framework of United States and Russia proposed peace conference in Geneva.

EU cancel of the embargo on arms supplies to the Syrian opposition forces, does not mean an immediate start of deliveries. The Europeans have the right to make decisions on the matter themselves. The intention of Russia to implement the contract on deliveries of S-300 for government forces in Syria is an evidence of the ongoing war of nerves between the West and Russia over the possibility of the beginning of an external intervention in the conflict. In the foreseeable future there will be no mass deliveries of weapons by Western countries to Syrian opposition (in addition to those already made by Britain and France after Qatar and Saudi Arabia), or S-300 to Syrian government. The latter can only be shipped in case of an attempt to install over Syria a no-fly zone.

For all the questions concerning the International Security Index please contact Galiya Ibragimova by e-mail ibragimova at pircenter.org

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