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  • Affiliation : Director, Bylim Karvoni Nongovernental Research and Training Center
  • Position : President
  • Affiliation : Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
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International Security Index iSi decreased to 2789 points. Duarte, Tolipov comment events of the week.

21.08.2013

MOSCOW, AUGUST 21, 2013. PIR PRESS “The situation in Egypt and in Syria is the most single reason for concern worldwide. The coup d’état in Egypt and the subsequent clashes between opponents and supporters of ousted President Mohamed Morsi led to the political turmoil in country. The authorities declared a state of emergency. The international community has been trying to take steps to stabilize the situation in the country, but all attempts to peaceful resolve the crisis so far in vain. So the violence in Egypt has significantly increased and there is much concern about the repercussions for the region”, – Ambassador (ret.), High Representative of the United Nations for Disarmament Affairs (2007-2012) Sergio Duarte. 

The new weekly International Security Index iSi has been published in Kommersant (in Russian).

During the week August 12 - 19, 2013, the International Security Index iSi decreased to 2789 points. In Egypt, there were violent clashes between Islamists and police, about 500 people were killed; state of emergency was announced in the country. The authorities have threatened to ban the Muslim Brotherhood movement; the United States canceled joint military exercises with Egypt because of the crisis in the country. In Syria, the army and the opposition continued in the suburbs of Damascus and Aleppo. Anti-government demonstrations took place in Tunisia and Bahrain. In the south of Algeria tribal clashes broke out, there were casualties. Israel and Palestine held the first in three years direct negotiations. Terrorist attacks occurred in Lebanon, Egypt, Iraq and Pakistan. In the UK, there was a march of protest against shale gas. Flooding in China, Nigeria, the heat in Japan, the epidemic of cholera in Afghanistan were among the negative events of the week.

Comments on the week's events by members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center

Sergio Duarte (Brazil), Ambassador (ret.), High Representative of the United Nations for Disarmament Affairs (2007–2012) – by e-mail from Brasilia: The situation in Egypt and in Syria is the most single reason for concern worldwide. The coup d’état in Egypt and the subsequent clashes between opponents and supporters of ousted President Mohamed Morsi led to the political turmoil in country. The authorities declared a state of emergency. The international community has been trying to take steps to stabilize the situation in the country, but all attempts to peaceful resolve the crisis so far in vain. So the violence in Egypt has significantly increased and there is much concern about the repercussions for the region. There is no less concern around the ongoing civil war in Syria and the inability of the parties to come to some compromise. Other factors such as Iran's nuclear program, Israel's action against Iran, etc., continue to be a source or worries. However, certain positive in the regional chaos brought the first in three years, direct Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Finally, the repercussions of the international espionage revelations continue to create mistrust.

South America continues to be one of the most stable regions of the world. The only significant change in the South American scene was the assumption of office by the new President of Paraguay Horacio Cartes. This is a positive sign that points to the possibility of normalization of the situation within Mercosul.

Farhad Tolipov (Uzbekistan) - Director of the private research and educational center Bilim Karvon (Caravan of knowledge- by phone from Tashkent: For Central Asia, summer 2013 was more or less stable. There were events that had a negative impact on regional security, but there were also some positive. Neither Iran nor Syria and Afghanistan have not shaken the strategic situation in the region. Among the negative events of regional importance should be noted skirmishes on the Uzbek-Kyrgyz and Uzbek-Tajik border with tragic consequences. A permanent problem of unresolved borders reiterated about itself. All this events in some way destabilized situation in the region. But there also were positive developments. It should be mentioned the signing of the strategic partnership between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. This agreement may give a significant impetus not only to bilateral relations, but to regional development. So there are great deals of waiting from that document.

In autumn–winter 2013 the fluctuations in regional security are likely to be minor. We can say that Central Asia is being focusing.

For all the questions concerning the International Security Index please contact Galiya Ibragimova by e-mail ibragimova at pircenter.org

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