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  • Position : Columnist
  • Affiliation : Daily FT
  • Affiliation : Independent Libyan Academic, Journalist
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International Security Index iSi decreased to 2760 points. Jayatilleka, Fetouri comment events of the week.

06.05.2014

MOSCOW, MAY 6, 2014. PIR PRESS - “The diplomatic containment in Geneva of a potentially dangerous situation between the West and Russia over Ukraine; the continued commitment to a diplomatic resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue and the non-abandonment of the search for a diplomatic and political solution to the crisis in Syria, have had a positive impact on the region. All these positives have involved the rational approach and realistic diplomacy of Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov”, - former Ambassador, Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva, Senior Lecturer in Politics at the University of Colombo, Dayan Jayatilleka.

The new weekly International Security Index iSi was published in Kommersant (in Russian).

During the week of April 28 – May 5, 2014, the International Security Index iSi decreased to 2760 points. In eastern regions of Ukraine, authorities began the military operation against the supporters of federalization; there were victims. In Odessa, during clashes between pro-Russian activists with radicals and followed fire in the House of Trade Unions 46 people died. USA and European Union expanded sanctions against Russia because of the situation in the east of Ukraine. In Syria, militants opened fire at Aleppo University and residential neighborhood in Damascus; in Homs a ceasefire came into force. In Egypt, there were clashes between Islamists and civilians; there were victims. In Libya, the rebels seized the parliament building and attacked the headquarters of the security forces. North Korea conducted a live fire near the western border with South Korea in the Yellow Sea. In eastern India separatist group shot 10 people. Terrorist attacks were occurred in Iraq, Syria, Egypt, India, China and Somalia. In Afghanistan, as a result of landslide in northeastern Badakhshan province about 300 people were killed.

Comments on the week's events by members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center

Dayan Jayatilleka (Sri Lanka), Ambassador, former Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva, Senior Lecturer in Politics at the University of Colombo – by e-mail from Colombo: The situation has deteriorated because of the attempt by certain circles in the US and the EU, to revive the project of NATO expansion up to the borders of Russia. These elements encouraged the de-stabilisation of the elected presidency in Kiev and regime change by putschist, even coercive means. The so-called uprising in Kiev was reminiscent of attempts by certain adventurist elements in the West to create unrest in Russia's neighborhood, going back to the counterrevolutionary upheaval in Hungary in 1956, encouraged by Radio Free Europe and the CIA.

The entirely comprehensible though regrettable outcome in the Crimea, where the citizenry of Russian origin felt so threatened by the neo-fascist currents in the Kiev parliament and regime and thereby detached themselves from the Ukraine, and were accepted by Russia as a pre-emptive defense of its own historically vulnerable security buffer, gave an opportunity for anti-Russian hysteria in the West.

Summer of 2014 will be a period of transformation and changes. The diplomatic containment in Geneva of a potentially dangerous situation between the West and Russia over Ukraine; the continued commitment to a diplomatic resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue and the non-abandonment of the search for a diplomatic and political solution to the crisis in Syria, have had a positive impact on the region. All these positives have involved the rational approach and realistic diplomacy of Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.     

Mustafa Fetouri (Libya), Independent Libyan Academic, Journalist – by e-mail from Tripoli: Globally we have witnessed the old NATO ambitions of bordering Russia come back again but this time camouflaged, disguised, well wrapped in a nice packaging called “popular revolt” against a tyrannical regime. Kiev in Ukraine was chosen as a perfect location to launch the latest NATO attempts to humiliate Russia and threaten its security. What started as small demonstrations by small minority of   Ukrainians demanding that their government sign a deal with the EU was later exploited by pro EU nationalist elements with their own agenda and supported by European Union and the United States. However the Russian action in Crimea could not have been the only solution to the crises.

In Middle East and North Africa region the public frustration with the government continues to be the norm in Libya. From April 1 and until April 14 the public disobedience continues to disrupt some government departments and blocking main roads around main cities in Tripoli and Benghazi. In Azawia, west of the capital the main road connecting Tripoli to the western parts of the country was blocked by angry demonstrators. Housing the only oil refinery in western Libya this action created shortages of fuel leading to long queues of cars at petrol stations across the capital and some other major cities. Then idea was to force the General National Conference out of office but it only relocated its chamber from Rixos hotel to another one; Radisson Blue – Mahari by the sea front.

Majority of Libyans would like to see this transitional government and the transitional GNC leave and call for earlier elections. Yet the Islamists in the GNC continue to dominate the political scene and manage to avoid any action that could render them out of power. The GNC chairman was briefly kidnapped in late March and he still refuses to quit nor publically explain what happened to him further alienating more people.

Sporadic shooting and indiscriminate killings continue to take place almost on daily basis in Tripoli, Benghjazi, and Derna. Every night residents of the capital and hear rounds of shooting.

So, more and more Libyans have lost any trust in their government and seem to be regretting the so called “Libyan resolution” of February 17, 2011 which led to eight month civil war.

For all the questions concerning the International Security Index please contact Galiya Ibragimova by e-mail ibragimova at pircenter.org

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