Experts

  • Position : Chairman of the Executive Board; Chairman of the "Trialogue" Club International
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
  • Affiliation : Chairman and Founder, Gulf Research Center, President of Sager Group Holding
  • Affiliation : Director of OSCE Academy
  • Affiliation : Director General, Russian International Affairs Council
  • Position : President
  • Affiliation : Center on Global Interests
  • Position : President
  • Affiliation : Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
complete list

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PIR Center’s International Expert Group assesses global security in 2015

23.01.2015

MOSCOW, JANUARY 23, 2015. PIR PRESS – “The ability of international community to solve regional conflicts similar to the conflict in Ukraine will become a global security issue in 2015. The world learned to solve global issues: to maintain nuclear security, to combat climate change, but it still cannot settle regional conflicts. The crisis in Ukraine demonstrated that the global security system had for all this time existed within the Cold War paradigm,” – Nikolai Zlobin, President of the Center on Global Interests.

In its first number of 2015, the leading Russian weekly political magazine Kommersant Vlast has traditionally published an article with the global security forecasts from the experts of the PIR Center International Expert Group (in Russian). The experts also summed up major security developments in the world in 2014.

Chairman of PIR Center Executive Board, Lieutenant General (Ret.) Evgeny Buzhinsky in his comment drew attention to the Middle East. He said, “International coalition’s success or failure in its struggle with the Islamic State will determine the situation in the world and in the Middle East. We cannot rule out a possibility of the U.S. ground operation against Islamists, which, accordingly, will lead to all radical Islamist factions’ mobilization to fight Americans”. 

An expert from Brazil, UN High Representative for Disarmament Affairs in 2007-2012 Sergio Duarte emphasized global challenges before the international community. In his opinion, “aggravation of the relations between two most powerful nuclear states – the U.S. and Russia – because of the Ukrainian crisis will be a major threatening tendency for the world and indirectly for South America in 2015. In the context of global volatility non-state actors represented by terrorist and Islamist factions can get dangerous WMD technologies increasing instability in the world”.

Director of OSCE Academy in Bishkek Pal Dunay regards the Ukrainian crisis as a threat to European unity. He deems that in 2015 “even if the conflict in the South-East of Ukraine is not resolved, Brussels will start lifting sanctions against Moscow due to instability in its own economy”.

Nikolai Zlobin, President of the Center on Global Interests, forecasts: “The ability of international community to solve regional conflicts similar to the conflict in Ukraine will become a global security issue in 2015. The world learned to solve global issues: to maintain nuclear security, to combat climate change, but it still cannot settle regional conflicts. The crisis in Ukraine demonstrated that the global security system had for all this time existed within the Cold War paradigm”.

According to the Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrey Kortunov “the situation in Ukraine and influence of the sanctions against Russia on the U.S.-Russian relations will become major problems in 2015. Ability or disability of the parties to the Ukrainian conflict to start its de-escalation and to determine the status of the south-eastern regions will have a dramatic impact on regional and global security”. The expert also believes that despite crisis in the U.S.-Russia relations, “trying to maintain the dialogue” is important for the parties.

“Success of military operation of the international coalition against the Islamic State depends directly on the ability of Iran and six mediating countries to adopt a comprehensive agreement on the Tehran’s nuclear program,” – thinks Halil Karaveli, a Senior Associate at Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center, Johns Hopkins University. He believes that Iran enjoys a high potential to stabilize the situation in Syria and to combat the Islamic State.

“The 2015 will witness a diminishing role of the African Union in solving Africa’s problems,” – deems Sehlare Makgetlaneng, head of the Governance and Democracy Research Programme in Africa Institute of South Africa. The expert explains the AU inefficiency by “the lack of state organization or its illegitimacy in the majority of the AU members”.

Chairman of the Gulf Research Center Abdulaziz Sager forecasts that “growing radicalization of the Middle East, especially among young people” will become a major tendency in 2015. The expert correlates the emergence of the Islamic State and U.S. soldiers’ return in the region with inability to break the impasse in Syria. 

PIR Center International Expert Group members come from key countries and regions of the world from the global security perspective. The Group consists of experts from Russia, Argentina, Brazil, China, Hungary, India, Iran, Libya, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey, the U.S.A. and Uzbekistan.

For questions regarding PIR Center International Expert Group, please contact the PIR Center “Russia and Nuclear Nonproliferation” program Director Andrey Baklitskiy by telephone +7 (495) 987 19 15 or email at baklitsky at pircenter.org.

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