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Afghanistan in New Military-Political Realities

06.05.2015

MOSCOW, MAY 6, 2015. PIR PRESS – “Currently and in the foreseeable future there is no reason to expect a Taliban victory in Afghanistan and the establishment of its power in the north of the country.   Accordingly, there is a possibility of a massive invasion from there to Central Asia.  Haphazard interventions by small jihadist factions into countries of the region should obviously not be excluded, but they do not constitute the real threat to the ruling regimes and are easily neutralized by their armies.  Most likely, rather, the succession crises in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan serve as the only causes of regional destabilization, but to judge their future effects is not possible,” –Security Index journal editorial board member, Yuri Fedorov. 

“There is no hope for quick stabilization of the situation in Afghanistan.  A year ago, American military leadership recognized that the ability of the Afghan government to provide a leadership that is stable, effective and accountable to its citizens is slowly improving, but it faces significant challenges, including corruption at various levels, with inefficient control over program implementation and the failure of regional budgets.  Poor cooperation between central and regional authorities undermines long-term sustainability and public trust.  The bureaucracy’s limited abilities, combined with a lack of necessary education and training, continue to prevent the development of a sustainable system of authority,” says Security Index journal editorial board member, Yuri Fedorov, in his article.

According to Fedorov, “one should never exclude that the Taliban will incite an invasion into Central Asia.  Its leaders, for unknown reasons, may be interested destabilizing Central Asian countries or, more likely, removal under the plausible pretext of their too independent allies from controlled territories.  Analysts generally agree that an intervention in this region, if it occurs, will be carried out by non-Pashtun Islamist factions.  With a 90% Pashtun movement, the Taliban is locked in Afghan issues. If they invade Central Asia to Pashtun groups, linguistically and culturally alien to the population, will have to act in a hostile environment.”

 “Currently and in the foreseeable future there is no reason to expect a Taliban victory in Afghanistan and the establishment of its power in the north of the country.   Accordingly, there is a possibility of a massive invasion from there to Central Asia.  Haphazard interventions by small jihadist factions into countries of the region should obviously not be excluded, but they do not constitute the real threat to the ruling regimes and are easily neutralized by their armies.  Most likely, rather, the succession crises in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan serve as the only causes of regional destabilization, but to judge their future effects is not possible,” –Security Index journal editorial board member, Yuri Fedorov. 

The article, “Afghanistan in New Military-Political Realities: What Does This Mean for Its Neighbors in Central Asia?” was published in the first issue of the Security Index journal, №1 (112), Spring 2015, and is accessible on the PIR Center website (in Russian).

PIR Center researches the situation in Afghanistan and Central Asia within the “Security in Central Asia and Russia” project.

For more detailed information about the publication or advertising on the publication’s pages please call +7 (495) 987 1915 or fax +7 (495) 987 1914.

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