Experts

  • Position : Consultant
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
  • Position : Chairman of the Executive Board; Chairman of the "Trialogue" Club International
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
complete list

Related articles


Some time ago the U.S. administration, including their former President Barack Obama, has voiced more and more often the idea that it would be desirable to continue strategic offensive reductions. There are several reasons why the United States are so interested in intensifying nuclear arms reduct...


Modernization of nuclear arsenals is inevitable. Does this mean that strategic stability status quo is endangered by technological advancement of existing arsenals? It depends both on the understanding of strategic stability and strategies of modernizing weapons. The analysis of Russian and US exa...

PIR Center holds seminar on North Korea and Iran’s ballistic missile programs

14.03.2016

MOSCOW, MARCH 14, 2016. PIR PRESS – “Iranian missile launches do not violate country’s commitments or norms of international law.  All of the provisions of Resolution 1929, that prohibited Tehran from launching ballistic missiles, were terminated in January 2016, and the resolution 2231 merely “calls upon” Iran not to undertake any activity related to such launches, which is not legally binding; the JCPOA does not address the issue of ballistic missile launches.” – Andrey Baklitskiy, PIR Center “Russia and Nuclear Nonproliferation” Program Director.

On March 3, 2016, as part of its Midweek Brainstorming Session PIR Center held a seminar on “Ballistic missile threats from North Korea and Iran – myth or reality”. Tehran and Pyongyang’s plans to develop missile programs were discussed during the seminar, and participants attempted to answer the question of whether these programs could pose a threat to international security and Russia.

PIR Center fellows along with members of the PIR Center’s Advisory Board, representatives of the Russian Foreign Ministry Department for Non-Proliferation and Arms Control, experts from the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the MGIMO University, the National Research Institute “Higher School of Economics”, the Carnegie Moscow Center, and the Kommersant newspaper participated in the seminar.

Andrey Baklitskiy, PIR Center “Russia and Nuclear Nonproliferation” Program Director, presented a report on Iran’s ballistic missile program, along with its possible impact and influence upon the sanctions imposed on Iran.  He highlighted the position of Iran's missile program in the JCPOA and suggested that the USA could implement additional sanctions in response to Iran’s missile testing, although this seems unlikely, regarding difficulties in reaching the current agreement.

“Iranian missile launches do not violate country’s commitments or norms of international law.  All of the provisions of Resolution 1929, that prohibited Tehran from launching ballistic missiles, were terminated in January 2016, and the resolution 2231 merely “calls upon” Iran not to undertake any activity related to such launches, which is not legally binding; the JCPOA does not address the issue of ballistic missile launches”, concluded Andrey Baklitskiy.

Headnote prepared by Evgeny Buzhinsky, Chairman of the PIR Center Executive Board, was presented during the seminar.  According to expert opinion, a three-stage, liquid-fueled Unha-3 rocket, by means of which a small satellite was launched into Earth’s orbit on February 7, 2016, cannot be converted into an intercontinental ballistic missile. 

“Even if North Korean specialists were to replace second and third stage power plants with more powerful engines, they would still need to resolve the issue of overheating and the development of a suitable thermal protection shield in the third stage in order to enter the dense layers of the atmosphere, and to carry out the necessary flight test cycles.  Moreover, missiles of such large size and mass cannot be mobilized, and as soon as they are silo-launched, they are too vulnerable to preemptive strikes, owing to the countries small size and lack of strategic depths,” Evgeny Buzhinsky points out. 

For questions regarding the PIR Center’s Midweek Brainstorming Sessions, please contact Projects Coordinator Alyona Makhukova via phone at +7 (495) 987 19 15 or via email at makhukova at pircenter.org.


 
loading