Experts

  • Position : Founder
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
complete list

Related articles

 

To say “the future is not bright for arms control” is an understatement. New START may be the last formal nuclear arms agreement between the United States and Russia. It is possible that, by 2021, for the first time in five decades, there will be no negotiated agreements in place to regulate the ...

 

Since I delivered these remarks during a Track Two meeting between US and Russian experts, my essential point remains unchanged: Washington and Moscow need to discuss nuclear weapons and doctrine, even at the toughest bilateral moments. However, there remains a major obstacle to a similar discuss...

International Task Force Declaration on the Future of the Nuclear Deal with Iran

22.03.2017

ISTANBUL, MARCH 22, 2017. PIR PRESS. — The joint comprehensive plan of action is contributing to regional and global peace; it needs the support of all parties to the agreement. We were unanimous that although the deal is not perfect, there appears to be no chance of securing a better one at present. It looks highly unlikely that either side could be compelled to enter a new negotiation which would lead to a different result. It is this or no deal in the near future. And the latter would bring us back to a path that could easily lead to miscalculation and a new disaster in the Middle East”, – Dr. Vladimir A. Orlov, Special Advisor to the PIR Center, a member of the GRF International Task Force.

On March 4-5, 2017 the second and final meeting of the Global Relations Forum (GRF) International Task Force on the future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) took place in Istanbul, Turkey. The International Task Force on the Future of the Nuclear Deal with Iran was launched in 2016 to focus on maintaining the positive momentum created by the JCPOA. The Task Force brought together 14 experts from China, France, India, Iran, Israel, Russia, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Task Force study was also joined by four expert rapporteurs from China, Germany, Italy and Turkey.

On March 17, 2017, the Task Force has adopted the Declaration on the JCPOA. The full text of the declaration is below:

“On 4-5 March, the Global Relations Forum (GRF) International Task Force, of which we are all members, held its second and final meeting in Istanbul to reflect on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) - the Iran nuclear deal - concluded by Iran and the P5+1 on 14 July 2015. We noted that despite the predictable challenges of executing an ambitious and technically complex deal, it has so far been implemented successfully.

As confirmed by the IAEA, Iran has taken the steps it had committed to under the JCPOA to reassure the international community about its nuclear program, including through removing 13,000 centrifuges, disposing of all but 300kg of its 8,000kg stockpile of enriched uranium, and extracting the core of the plutonium-fueled research reactor at Arak. The IAEA has begun an inspection and monitoring regime of unprecedented depth and has reported that Iran has kept within the tight limits set out in the agreement.

The P5+1 in turn have rolled back their nuclear-related sanctions as they committed to do. Inevitably it is taking time for international businesses to resume normal trading and investment relations with Iran but we are optimistic that, over time, this will happen.

Despite this, the nuclear agreement has critics in two key capitals: Washington and Tehran. With a change of administration in the US and the impending elections in Iran, it is not difficult to imagine circumstances in which the nuclear agreement could still fail.

As a diverse group of experts - from different nations and with many differing views about the rights and wrongs of the past - none of us hesitated to rally around a few beliefs strongly held by us all.

First and foremost, we were unanimous that although the deal is not perfect, there appears to be no chance of securing a better one at present. It looks highly unlikely that either side could be compelled to enter a new negotiation which would lead to a different result. It is this or no deal in the near future. And the latter would bring us back to a path that could easily lead to miscalculation and a new disaster in the Middle East.

Second, all parties to the deal have therefore to fulfill their obligations in good faith. The nuclear deal will be durable only if it brings benefit to both sides: that means Iran continuing to deliver on its nuclear commitments and the P5+1 doing all it can to ensure sanctions relief in practice as well as in theory. We call on the parties to the deal to reaffirm their full commitment to it: silence is not enough.

Finally, we believe there are ways in which the international community could build on the JCPOA to increase confidence and therefore security. We look forward to releasing a report with concrete ideas in this direction later this year”.

The full text of the declaration on the JCPOA can be found on the website of PIR Center.

The Task Force consists of the following members: former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey Hikmet Çetin, former Political Director of the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office Simon Gass, the Chairman of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy François Heisbourg, Professor of Political Science of the Faculty of Law and Political Sciences at the University of Tehran Nasser Hadian Jazy, Vice-Chairman and President of the Global Relations Forum Memduh Karakullukçu (Turkey), Former Undersecretary of State in Charge of the Turkish National Intelligence Organization Sönmez Köksal, Senior Associate of the Nuclear Policy Program & Asia Program at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center Li Bin (China), Professor Emeritus at Tel Aviv University David Menashri, Director of the International Security Programm at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University Steven E. Miller (USA), Special Advisor to PIR Center and Head of the Center for Global Trends and International Organizations at Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Vladimir Orlov, Executive Director for Research at Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University Gary Samore (USA), former Undersecretary of the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs Özdem Sanberk, former Special Envoy of the Prime Minister of India for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Issues Rakesh Sood, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey Yaşar Yakış.

Global Relations Forum (GRF) is an independent, nonpartisan membership association based in Istanbul founded in 2009. The founding members include former ministers of foreign affairs, university presidents, central bank governors, retired ambassadors as well as business leaders, scholars and artists. GRF undertakes policy work on current global issues ranging from energy to trade and from security to education.

For all questions concerning PIR Center’s program “Russia and Nuclear Nonproliferation” please contact the Program Director Andrey Baklitskiy by phone at +7 (495) 987-19-15 or by email at baklitsky at pircenter.org

 

Comments

 
 
loading