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Iran stays in the JCPOA despite the crisis with the US

07.02.2020

“On the night of January 3, 2020, the US Air Force killed an Iranian general, the head of the special forces of the IRGC, Qasem Soleimani, in Baghdad. In response, Iran launched a missile attack on two US bases in Iraq and announced the fifth and final stage of reducing commitments under the JCPOA. Despite bombastic headlines in the media (some were subsequently deleted), Iran continued to cooperate with the IAEA inspectors and suspended the 60-day cycles of reducing its commitments under the agreement "- this is the main note of the 519th issue of the Yaderny Kontrol bulletin.

“Theoretical debates on the outwardly spectacular topics of creating a favorable “environment for nuclear disarmament” and “stable rules of military competition” have the advantage of relieving from the necessity to know the issue in detail. They also allow avoiding long and sometimes arduous negotiations to resolve the most complicated contradictions at the diplomatic table and between their government agencies. But these informal methods will never be effective, as demonstrated by recent discussions on strategic stability between Russia and the US and between the US and China," - Alexey Arbatov wrote.

In the PIR-Center blog, Daria Pakhomova discusses what attracts India in the Russian atom: “In the long run India may be interested Russian developments related to fast neutron reactors - in Russia such reactor is operated at the Novovoronezh NPP. First of all, such interest will be related to significant limitations of uranium resources in India and the possibility of multiple utilization of nuclear fuel’’.

“Thus, the JCPOA will actually come down to the transparency of the Iranian nuclear program in exchange for not imposing sanctions by the EU and the UN. At that, the mechanism of restoring all provisions in case the situation changes will be maintained. In this state, the agreement may survive for quite a long time, especially if "the parameters of the Iranian nuclear program will become the subject of additional (and most likely non-public) bargaining of Tehran with Europe" - Andrey Baklitskiy says about the future of the JCPOA.

Evgeny Buzhinsky and Vadim Kozyulin: “US-DPRK relations are in another dead end. At a plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the Labour Party of Korea at the end of 2019, Chairman of the DPRK State Council Kim Jong-un claimed that his state no longer considers itself bound by a voluntary moratorium on testing nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles. Mr. Kim promised that “in the near future” the “new strategic weapon” will be demonstrated to the world.

The issue is available here (in Russian). The subscription form and the archive of the bulletin since 2000 are hosted on the bulletin page.

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