MOSCOW. APRIL 29, 2020. PIR PRESS. The Security Index Occasional Paper Series came out with a paper "Keeping peace in the nuclear era: why Washington and Moscow must extend the New START Treaty" by Anatoly Antonov and Rose Gottemoeller
Key findings:
- After a decade of implementation, the constructive role that New START plays in maintaining the bilateral nuclear balance is clear. New START has brought verifiable and transparent reductions in nuclear arms.
- New START also plays an important role in bolstering mutual transparency and predictability, since we built into the treaty principles of equality and a balance of interests. Its verification regime is reciprocal and highly effective.
- If New START is not extended, 2021will mark the start of a period of unpredictability. Most consequential, each side’s understanding of the other’s strategic nuclear arsenals will diminish, and a trust deficit will quickly grow. As each party understands less, the two powers will be forced into more worst-case planning.
- Predictability in military affairs is of particular importance at this moment. At a time when the world needs strength, confidence, and a spirit of cooperation to recover from a pandemic, the United States and Russia can help lead the way. There would be no better way of conveying this message than the extension of New START.