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The Security Index Occasional Paper Series came out with the new report "Efforts of the P5 to ensure strategic stability" by Sofya Shestakova

02.07.2022

MOSCOW. JULY 2, 2022. PIR PRESS. The Security Index Occasional Paper Series came out with the new report "Efforts of the P5 to ensure strategic stability" by Sofya Shestakova.

The creation of the P5 process is a positive step for the nonproliferation regime. For the first time in the history of the NPT, a permanent dialogue mechanism of official nuclear states on nonproliferation issues has been established. The goal of this research paper is to analyze the efforts of the nuclear five to ensure strategic stability. The relevance of the topic is dictated by the lack of specific multilateral mechanisms to maintain strategic stability.

Key findings:

  • When discussing issues of strategic stability, it is the P5 that should set the tone and determine the criteria, principles, and conditions for ensuring it.

  • Discussing strategic stability in the P5 format requires taking into account the national interests of each of the nuclear five states and understanding that strategic stability goes beyond arms control.

  • In the near future, the P5 is not ready for disarmament and far-reaching reciprocal concessions due to rising international tensions. In the current circumstances, only by reducing nuclear risks can the P5 countries make progress and contribute to strengthening strategic stability.

  • An initiative to create a roadmap promoting the idea of a step-by-step approach to strategic stability with the most compromise topics would be an advantage for Russia. Thus, dialogue can take place on three fronts: jointly defining the conditions for nuclear disarmament and continuing to support them; strengthening confidence-building and transparency measures; and reducing strategic risks.

  • It seems appropriate to consider the impact of hypersonic and cybernetic technologies, dual-use developments in artificial intelligence, space and robotics. Currently, there are no mechanisms in place to address their impact on nuclear risks.

Read the report (in Russian)

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