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2009, №88, 89, Security Index

89, Security Index image
Issue: №88
Text:

SECURITY INDEX (International Edition)

NO. 3-4 (88-89), Summer/Fall 2009

CONTENTS

FROM THE EDITOR

Fear Hath a Hundred Eyes

In his Editorial, Vladimir Orlov speaks about the celebration of the 15th anniversary of the PIR Center and the role of new security challenges, which often become a mechanism of manipulation and require thorough and balanced analysis.

INTERVIEWS

The Platform Might Bring a New Impetus and a Functional Momentum to the RegionÜnal eviköz

In his interview with the Security Index journal Deputy Undersecretary of Foreign Affairs of Turkey speaks about the regional initiatives of this country in the Caucasus and the prospects of Turkish&Russian relations.

NATO and Russia Need Reset - Victor Zavarzin

“The aforementioned developments prove that it is not enough to return to status quo within the NRC. It is necessary to reset its functioning, to introduce the philosophy of equal cooperation. It is particularly important to restore the trust, including sincere talk about the need for our partners to comply with the fundamental principles of the NRC activities, which were agreed upon at the time of its establishment. Above all, we mean the unacceptability of attempts to maintain one’s own security in detriment to the security of others,” claims Victor
Zavarzin, Chairman of the Duma Defense Committee.

ANALYSES

Chemical Weapons Destruction: Will Russia and the United States Fulfill Their Commitments by 2012?Alexander Plugarev

“Russia, however, is well on track in terms of resources and technical capacity to meet the CWC deadlines. It is obvious that the Russian policy goal is to fulfill CWC commitments (witness the numerous statements to that effect by foreign and Russian officials, as well as the successes already achieved). That will deprive the United States of the chance to use Russia’s failure to meet the CWC deadlines (and Washington’s friendly support has often pushed Russia towards such failure) as a justification for America’s own fiasco in this area,” claim the author.

GALILEO Project in America EU Russia RelationsVasily Lata and Vladimir Maltsev

The authors give a thorough technical analysis of the capabilities of the European satellite program and study how it affects the EU relations with the United States and Russia. One of the conclusions is that GALILEO may become an area of fruitful and mutually beneficial cooperation between Brussels and Moscow.

Iran’s Energy Interests in the Caspian: The Window of Lost Opportunities - Albert Zulkharneev

The author gives a comprehensive view of the various aspects of Iranian energy policy, including the exploration of the oil fields in the Caspian and the problem of dividing the bottom of the Caspian Sea, transit gas pipelines, and export of electricity. The article assumes that Iran is doomed to be involved in greater international cooperation, even though Central Asia is not the priority region for Tehran.

Sudan between War and PeaceVadim Kozyulin

The article reviews the situation in Sudan, especially through the prism of interference of Great Powers in the situation in Darfur. By comparing the interests and the influence of the United States, France, China, and Russia, the researcher tries to predict further developments, bearing in mind growing militarization of the region and huge arms supplies to different forces. The course to the isolation of President al-Bashir’s regime, hence, seems quite harmful, as it destabilizes Sudan and neighboring countries.

VIEWPOINTS

Russia and NATO: The Taming of the ShrewDmitry Polikanov “If any partnership to exist, the parties have to take off their diplomatic suits, sit down together and make an honest assessment of differences and commonalities. The list of true, not propagandistic claims to each other should be prepared. And the list of areas for joint work with very specific projects. They can be fewer than listed in the annual plans of action, but there should one or two large-scale events and numerous small-scale activities, which would create
the link of engagement,” maintains the author. All this requires political will and
rejection of old stereotypes.

ROUNDTABLE

U.S. - Russian Dialogue on Nuclear Disarmament: What to Expect?
How should Russia act with respect to strategic offensive arms? What are the practical lanes for cooperation? Which problems should be resolved as top priorities? These questions are discussed by Sergey Koshelev, Deputy Director, Department for Security and Disarmament Affairs of the Russian MFA; Yevgeny Satanovsky, President of the Institute of Middle East Studies; Vladimir Dvorkin, Consultant of the Carnegie Moscow Center; Anatoly Diakov, Director of the Center for Arms Control, Energy and Environmental Studies of the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology; Lt.Gen. (ret.) Gennady Evstafiev, PIR Senior Advisor; Alexander Radchuk, Advisor to the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces; Oleg Khodyrev, Advisor to the Staff of the RF Security Council; and Amb. Roland Timerbaev, PIR Center Executive Board Chairman.

COMMENTARY

Achieving Nuclear Zero: Way Ahead -James Goodby

Amb. Goodby, one of the leading experts on nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament studies the opportunities for the establishment of the nuclearweaponfree world, paying particular attention to the U.S.Russian relations and the prospects of the START Treaty.

Nuclear Zero: Key Issues to Be AddressedGeorge Perkovich

In his commentary, George Perkovich addresses a number of questions that relate to the practical steps of moving to nuclear zero. They include the decreasing importance of parity and the ways to calculate the appropriate balance of nuclear forces, the connection between defense and offense, as well as the problem of deterrence.

Next Steps in U.S. - Russian Arms Control - Edward Ifft

The article contains some policy recommendations on the improvement of the strategic arms control regime. It considers a number of options as far as START and SORT are concerned and attaches particular importance to the verification mechanisms.

Passing the Rocks of the U.S. InitiativeGennady Evstafiev

In his short overview of the U.S. proposals on disarmament and strategic arms reduction, Lt.Gen. (ret.) Gennady Evstafiev focuses on the hidden agenda of the United States, including the desire to exchange the neverrealistic missile defense program for the actual cuts in the Russian nuclear arsenal. Besides, he assumes that Washington should undertake more steps to convince Russia of its good intentions and to ensure that the atmosphere of trust is built.

The Obama Transformation: Can It Succeed?Joseph Cirincione

In his comment the author analyzes the potential obstacles to President Obama's initiative, as well as the new opportunities and potential steps ahead in arms control and nuclear disarmament.

Missile Defense: Disinformation, Threat or Reality? - Sergey Smirnov

“The idea that the NMD system can guarantee absolute protection from missile threat is a dangerous delusion. Its danger stems not just from its ability to provoke the leadership of the country into rash actions. The entire history of weapons has demonstrated that it is impossible to create a superweapon. The sword and the shield have no separate existence, their development is interlinked – otherwise either all the wars would have stopped by now, or the world itself would have ceased to exist,” argues the author.

Modern Agricultural Biotechnology and National SecurityAlexander Golikov

The author analyzes the role of modern agricultural technologies, notably the GMO, in providing food security, which is an essential part of the national security.

The Importance of the RussianChinese Energy DialogueSeth Kinkade

“If Russia does not develop its Eastern Siberia and Far East energy resources and restructure its distribution network to satisfy Chinese demand, it could depress more than just Russia’s energy exports. China serves an important role in the world economy and has become the factory floor for the world. As the world economy regains its footing, demand for Chinese goods is likely to be robust… Restructuring Russia’s energy framework to serve the emerging markets in East Asia, especially China, can ensure that Russia is capable of capitalizing on the world economic growth, as the world emerges from the current global crisis,” claims the author.

REVIEWS OF RECENT WORLD EVENTS:
FEBRUARY – JUNE 2009

The iSi index – a comprehensive index of international security. After sharp downward trend in summer/fall 2008, the index has moved into the stable zone of 2,900. This indicator is 20–30 points lower than in spring 2008 and this could be accounted for by the economic crisis. Meanwhile, the level of military, political and terrorist threats in the world has returned to the same figure as a year ago. Members of the International Expert Group – Konstantin Eggert, Andrey Kortunov, Abdulaziz Sager, Yevgeny Satanovsky, and William Potter – comment the events.

A View by a Russian Liberal: Thinking about the Unthinkable, or Why Herman Kahn Was Right - Yury Fedorov

“Ignoring the scenarios that now appear unthinkable – such as the United States leaving Afghanistan without first defeating the Taliban, a new Cold War breaking out, Russia’s disintegration, a war against Iran or a sudden and unexpected change of regime in that country leading to a new U.S.Iranian alliance – does not just make the scientific analysis of the world politics poorer. It could also lead to some very unpleasant consequences for those political leaders who cannot escape the narrow confines of what is seemingly obvious.”

A View by a Russian Conservative: Waiting for Hope - Dmitry Evstafiev

“In other words, the symbolic and at the same time the tragic nature of today’s world is that having got rid of alternatives (unless you count a bunch of antiglobalist clowns a real alternative), the world has lost hope. Therefore there is no point in development. This is not the end of history, this is the end of development. The end of history will come a bit later. However, this is not the end of international relations either and it would be very interesting to see how the key players will be trying to achieve their goals in the face of strategic pointlessness,” maintains Evstafiev.

HISTORICAL PAGES

Divide et Impera: Destroying Balance in the BalkansIrina Zueva

The author speaks about 10 years of tragedy in the Balkans, as the Serbian state hood has been deliberately ruined, just as in the early 20th century. Making curious historical parallels, she claims that such policy may eventually force Russia to step in and to help the Balkans understand that it is the only guarantor of their sovereign existence.

BOOK REVIEWS

Confession of an American Hawk - Gennady Evstafiev.

The author reviews the memoirs of John Bolton and gives a sharp analysis of the U.S. foreign policy at the time of Bolton’s active engagement in formulating the American course. “John Bolton is one of the most hawkish apologists of the idea of American Age, and a proponent of an unfettered use of America’s military might to achieve the egoistic and selfish ends of the most aggressive circles of the Washington establishment.”

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Clock Ticking for Chemical Weapons Convention - Natalya Kalinina

ABOUT THE AUTHORS
PIR CENTER ADVISORY BOARD
List of articles published in the Security Index journal in 2009
FINAL QUOTES
Cov. III On plague and war

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