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2010, №93, Security Index

Security Index image
Issue: №93

SECURITY INDEX (International Edition)

NO. 4 (93), Fall 2010



After the NPT Conference. ‘‘No monumental breakthrough was achieved but then again, nothing special was expected. More positive atmosphere around the treaty, confirmation of its viability which I’m sure all the participants can agree on these positive outcomes alone are sufficient to start working, without any great fanfare, on all the problems accumulated over the years. The one thing that should not be allowed is repeating the mistake made in 1995, when after the treaty was extended indefinitely, everyone relaxed and did nothing,’’ writes Editor-in-Chief of the Security Index journal Vladimir Orlov describing the outcome of the 2010 NPT Review Conference.


The Gas Exporting Countries Forum Has No Cartel AmbitionsLeonid Bokhanovsky

The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) is a young international organization which is expected to acquire a great deal of influence on the gas market. Will the GECF manage to bring some kind of structure into the world market on natural gas, and find the right balance between the interests of the producers and consumers? What is Russia’s role in this new organization? GECF Secretary General Leonid Bokhanovsky offers his opinion on the impact that GECF can have on the provision of energy security in the world.

A Common Asian Energy Market Cannot Be Built without RussiaValery Yazev

Energy security is a key component of Russia’s dialogue with its European and often Asian partners. But the views held by the various sides on the security of energy supply and demand are often diametrically opposed. In his interview Deputy Speaker of the Russian State Duma and the President of the Russian Gas Society Valery Yazev explains the purpose of the new Russian proposal entitled ‘‘Conceptual approach to a new legal basis of international energy cooperation’’ as well as the prospects for energy integration in the Asia-Pacific Region, and the role Russia can play in that process.

Russia Needs a Modern and Capable ArmyNikolay Makarov

Reshaping the Russian army is one of the main aspects of President Dmitry Medvedev’s program on modernization of the country. What are the aims, objectives and consequences of the ongoing reform of Russia’s military machine? The Chief of the Russian General Staff and First Deputy Defense Minister Nikolay Makarov speaks about the essence of the military reform, its future course and the results already achieved.


The Great Nuclear Game of the 21st Century: Disarmament or War?Alexander Radchuk

The first attempts to make sure nuclear weapons are never used in anger were made right after they were invented. Advisor to the Chief of Russia’s General Staff Alexander Radchuk analyses the position of the nuclear powers, looks at the latest nuclear disarmament initiatives and details possible scenarios of international developments in the 21st century, including the possibility of nuclear conflicts. He offers a number of steps which would allow all nations to give up nuclear weapons and stop using force as an instrument of international relations.

The Arms Trade Treaty: Making the Guns Fall SilentVadim Kozyulin

Russian experts use the official statistics to assess the state of affairs in arms exports and imports control. They present their views on the effectiveness of the existing international agreements, UN, OSCE and the EU regulations on arms exports. The article offers the analysis of the provisions and principles of the International Arms Trade Treaty from the point of view of the key actors, such as Russia and the United States. The authors conclude that even the most careful wording cannot guarantee that under certain conditions the treaty could never turn from an instrument of transparency into a tool for secrecy and a cause for discord.

The European Security Treaty within the E.U.U.S.NATO TriangleDmitry Danilov

The article looks at the prospects for the implementation of the pan-European security project proposed by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in the context of the transformation of the two pillars of security on the European continent, the E.U. and N.A.T.O. The question is how the reset in the U.S.Russian relations can impact on the European Security Treaty initiative. The author offers his answer to the puzzle of whether there is any real need for the proposed treaty.

Nuclear Energy in Latin America: between Economic Development and Proliferation Risks - Irma Arguello

The countries of Latin America are different by the level of nuclear energy development. Most of them do not have any nuclear programs to speak of, and they are far from considering nuclear energy as a national priority. The Argentinian researcher argues it could change in the future. Nuclear renaissance worldwide encourages the Latin American countries to engage into nuclear energy activities some of them have already requested the IAEA’s support. The author analyzes the impacts of a potential nuclear energy development in the region with the focus on its advantages, challenges, and proliferation risks.


A New START Treaty: Spirit of Negotiations - Rose Gottemoeller

Over a year ago that Russia and the U.S. set out to negotiate the New START Treaty with the goal of replacing the expiring START Treaty with a new agreement mandating lower levels of strategic offensive arms. The START-II was signed in April 2010. A head of the U.S. delegation to the START negotiations, Assistant  Secretary of State for Verification and Compliance of U.S. Department of State Rose Gottemoeller comments on the new treaty, the negotiations process, the spirit in which these negotiations took place as well as the progress that has been made in gaining the advice and consent to ratification by the U.S. Senate.

Reset in RussiaUnited States Relations: Agenda Has Been ExhaustedYury Fedorov

Commenting on the current state of the Russian-U.S. relations and the reasons for a new START treaty to become a key element in the successful reset in these relations the Russian expert assesses what this reset consists of, and what its achievements and prospects are. The author expresses the opinion that the new START treaty and UN Security Council Resolution No. 1929 on Iran have in effect exhausted the reset agenda.

The Afghan Syndrome of the U.S. MilitaryDmitry Evstafiev

It has been more than 20 years since the limited contingent of the Soviet armed forces left Afghanistan, and nearly 10 years since the limited contingent of the armed forces of the United States and their allies entered it. The author comments on the evolution of the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan, the perception of the current political leadership by the military within the U.S. government and the challenges it creates for the future of the American foreign policy in whole.


The iSi Index - a Comprehensive Index of International Security.

Members of the PIR Center International Expert Group Evgeny Buzhinsky, Dmitry Evstafiev, Yury Fedorov, Evgeny Satanovsky, Farkhod Tolipov, Nandan Unnikrishnan comment on the recent world events.


Gas Games in Central Asia: Russia’s Stakes - Vladimir Pereboyev




On Islands