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2011, №95, Security Index

Security Index image
Issue: №95
Text:

SECURITY INDEX (International Edition)

NO. 2 (95), Spring 2011

CONTENTS

FROM THE EDITOR

Nuclear Disarmament: Next Steps for Russia and the United States

“As the New START finally entered into force and now is being implemented, both United States and Russia will face a dilemma: either to put an indefinite pause button after the success with the new treaty or to aggressively jump into the next phase of bilateral arms control negotiations. The current political situation gives almost an equal chance for each of these scenarios, with a slight advantage for the pause scenario,” – writes Editor-in-Chief of the Security Index journal, Vladimir Orlov, in From the Editor.

INTERVIEW

Russia Will Use the Experience of Foreign Armies Elena Knyazeva

The ongoing military reform in Russia aims to reshape the armed forces using the “New Look” model. How could Russian military reformers draw on the experience of the foreign countries? How will Russia develop its military cooperation with the other countries and international organizations? And what effects will that development have on the progress of that reform? Acting Head of the General Directorate for International Military Cooperation at the Russian MoD Col. Elena Knyazeva in her interview talks about the international dimension of military reform in Russia.

The Space Capability of Russia is a Strategic Instrument – Sergey Ponomarev

Russia has a unique rocket and space capability. However, the Russian space industry is currently being restructured to address new strategic tasks. What are those tasks, and what are the difficulties Russia is facing in developing and manufacturing new space technology? What is the balance between the military and civilian space programs? Deputy Head of the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roskosmos) Sergey Ponomarev in his interview comments on the current state of the Russian space industry and the prospects of its development.

ANALYSIS

Prompt Global Strike Weapons and Strategic Instability – Anatoly Anin

The issue of non-nuclear strategic offensive weapons has an increasing influence on the practical effectiveness and viability of the existing and future basis of international law in the area of disarmament and nonproliferation. Estimating the impact of the U.S. plans to develop its Prompt Global Strike weapons on the strategic stability the Russian researcher presents his analysis of how this issue is addressed in the New START Treaty as well as the Russian side’s concerns regarding American plans.

The Iranian Nuclear Program: Dilemmas Facing Russia Vladimir Orlov, Ivan Trushkin

The key Russian diplomatic documents describe the importance of Iran for Russia as a foreign policy priority. Nevertheless, the trade and economic relations between Russian and Iran stay mostly undeveloped. The experts of the PIR Center conclude these relations have largely become hostage to the unresolved Iranian nuclear problem. The authors summarize unofficial Russian estimates of the nuclear program in Iran, and propose the probable line that could be pursued by Russia to defuse tensions over this issue.

The Future of Russian ArmsAndrey Frolov

The State Armament Program (SAP) of the Russian Federation is the main document that sets the benchmark for military technology decisions in the longer term. The mere fact that work has begun on the SAP-2020 indicates that the Russian government is gradually adopting a long-term systematic approach to the military planning. The article is focused on the analysis of the previous armament programs in Russia and the prospects for the new program’s implementation.

ROUND TABLE

Russia’s Foreign Policy in the Pacific Region Kirill Barsky, Alexey Borodavkin, Mikhail Galuzin, Alexander Lukin, Vyacheslav Nikonov, Armen Oganesyan, Vladimir Orlov, Alexander Panov, Vadim Pestov, Victor Sumsky, George Toloraya, Alexander Vorontsov

In 2010 the “eastern vector” of Russia’s foreign policy underwent a conceptual rethinking. What are the results of Russia's efforts to establish itself more firmly in Asia Pacific? What are the specifics of Moscow’s relations with countries and organizations in the region? What are the obstacles Russia is facing as it tries to integrate itself into the regional context, and what are the tasks that must be addressed to facilitate productive cooperation with countries in Asia Pacific? These questions were addressed by the participants of the round table discussion.

COMMENTARY

East Asian Summit and Russia: Long-Awaited Invitation – Victor Sumsky

Russia officially expressed its desire to join the East Asian Summit (EAS) before 2005 when the first annual meeting was held. The application was declined on the grounds that Russia's links with the ASEAN countries were not yet “substantive” enough. In 2010, there was finally the official invitation to join EAS, which Russia received simultaneously with the United States. The author offers his opinion on why Russia was not a member of EAS before, why it is now being invited to join, and what’s the role the invitation for the U.S. plays in this turn.

The Bulava Missile: a Russian Military Trump Card? – Victor Litovkin

The development and testing of the new Russian Bulava missile is seen as a litmus test for the Russian defense industry’s ability to deliver new strategic weapons, ensure the country’s security, independence and sovereignty, and underpin the Kremlin’s leading role in world politics. Military observer presents his view on the prospects of this project and its significance for the new, post-Soviet Russia.

REVIEWS OF RECENT WORLD EVENTS

The iSi Index - a Comprehensive Index of International Security – in January-March 2011: Winter of Change – Galiya Ibragimova

Earthquakes in New Zealand and Japan, nuclear emergency at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant; anti-government protests in the Middle East; airstrikes against Col. Gaddafi's forces launched by United States, Britain and France; firing exercise conducted by South Korea near the demilitarized zone… The international security situation steady decreased throughout the winter of 2011. Members of the PIR Center International Expert Group – Evgeny Buzhinsky, Konstantin von Eggert, Pàl Dunay, Dayan Jayatilleka, Andrey Kortunov, Abdulaziz Sager, Evgeny Satanovsky, Farkhod Tolipov – comment on the recent world events.

Turmoil in the Middle East – Dmitry Evstafiev

The wave of anti-government protests in the Middle East and North Africa has wide-ranging implications for regional and global security. Arab governments in the region have been forced to make concessions to the protesters and promise serious reforms. Who has profited, who has lost, and what lessons can be drawn from the Middle East unrest? Commenting on these events the author addresses all of these questions.

Ratification of the New START Treaty – Yury Fedorov

The new strategic offensive reductions treaty between Russia and the United States entered into force. Meanwhile the U.S. Senate resolution has set a legally binding framework for the U.S. administration's further interactions with Russia on nuclear weapons issues. The author presents his look on the Treaty's ratification and its consequences expecting them to cause a bitter controversy in the coming months.

LIBRARY

Asymmetric Conflict as a Non-Mathematical CategoryEkaterina Stepanova

Theoretical studies of asymmetric violence usually focus on the various types of armed resistance by a weaker opponent to a much stronger one. For all the abundance of research into asymmetric conflict in Western sources, the book “Asymmetric Conflicts: an Equation with Many Unknowns” by Larisa Deriglazova is the first Russian research book on the subject. The biggest strength of this book and its main value is the meticulous and in many ways exemplary historiographic study of asymmetric conflicts.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

PIR CENTER ADVISORY BOARD

FINAL QUOTES

On War

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