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2011, №96, Security Index

Security Index image
Issue: №96
Text:

SECURITY INDEX
(International Edition)

NO. 3 (96), Summer 2011

CONTENTS

FROM THE EDITOR

The Dawn of New Battles

“The perpetrators of the Stuxnet attack against Iran have made it clear to the whole world that the era of new-generation wars is no longer dawning. It is already here. In the new century, battles will increasingly be waged not on the battlefield but in the outer space and the cyber space. So-called “cyber weapons” will gradually supplant the nuclear missile as the super-weapon of the century,” – writes Editor-in-Chief of the Security Index journal, Vladimir Orlov, in From the Editor.

INTERVIEW

Missile Defense Is the Litmus Test of Readiness for Effective Cooperation Anatoly Antonov

What are the prospects for U.S.-Russian military-political relations? What are the problems that hamper the continued process of strategic offensive arms reductions? And how has the Russian proposal on building a united missile defense system been met in the West? Deputy Russian Defense Minister for International Military Cooperation and Head of the Russian delegation at the New START talks Anatoly Antonov in his interview talks about the implications of the “reset” in U.S.-Russian relations for disarmament field.

New START Treaty – Another Success Story – Rose Gottemoeller

The New START treaty undoubtedly opens a new page in the relations between the U.S. and Russia. How did the ratification of the new treaty go in the United States? What are the main challenges to its successful implementation? What steps are being considered with respect to future arms control? We have put our questions to the Assistant Secretary of State for Verification and Compliance of U.S. Department of State Rose Gottemoeller who was also the Head of the U.S. delegation at the New START talks.

ANALYSIS

Strategic Conventional Arms: Deadlocks and Solutions – Evgeny Miasnikov

The U.S. and Russia disagree about the impact of strategic non-nuclear weapons on strategic stability. The sides do not even share a common vision on what types of conventional arms should be referred to as strategic. Nevertheless, those weapons have a counterforce capability and therefore affect the strategic balance. The article offers an analysis of the New START treaty limitations with respect to strategic conventional arms and discusses possible ways of resolving the problem of this kind of arms.

Conventional Armed Forces in Europe: Yesterday, Today… Tomorrow?.. (Part I) Anatoly Anin, Rodion Ayumov

European security remains contingent on limitation of the military arsenals which make large-scale military conflicts in Europe possible, and on adequate controls and information exchange mechanisms. The Russian experts analyze the background of the original and adapted Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), and summarize the ongoing debate on the future of conventional arms control in Europe.

Europe's Attitude toward Missile Defense and Russian ProposalClaire Lucien

Since November 2010, the issue of missile defense has been high on the NATO-Russia Council's agenda. Two competing proposals are on the table: the idea of separate but coordinated systems, defended by NATO and the U.S., and a sectoral approach that includes a joint missile-defense system along the perimeter of the Euro-Atlantic region, proposed by Russia. Through a series of interviews with diplomatic corps of European countries, the French junior researcher analyzes the Europe's attitude toward missile defense and the main question – what makes the European states to reject the Russian proposal.

Russia's Participation in International Peacekeeping Alexander Nikitin

The formation of the system of collective operations in conflict zones began in the late 1940s. Today the distinction between peacekeeping operations and intervention into the internal affairs of sovereign states is becoming increasingly blurred. There is growing debate about the legitimacy of the various forms and types of intervention. Estimating the prospects for peacekeeping cooperation between Russia and the Western countries, the author concludes that the parties need to search for joint or mutually acceptable formulas of using military force during conflicts, and proposes the measures to be pursued by Russia to reform its peacekeeping program.

COMMENTARY

Where is the Threat to Peace Coming from? – Yury Fedorov

Russian military strategists proceed from the notion that the primary threat to Russia remains the same as in the Soviet times. That threat is a nuclear strike by the United States. Assessing the possibility of U.S. unprovoked nuclear strike against Russia as well as the Russian policy based on this premise – large-scale military exercises in the Baltic area, deployment of advanced Iskander-M missile systems in the vicinity of the Baltic states, formation of the special Western Military District – the author concludes that the greatest threat to international and Russian national security is posed by the Russian military strategies themselves.

Central Asia: a New Battlefield? – Dmitry Evstafiev

In early 2011 the United States unveiled its new military strategy. A cursory acquaintance with this document shows that the Central Asia has essentially become a key region for the U.S. What are the reasons for the Americans to declare its aspiration to establish direct political control of this region, and why Central Asia is becoming extremely important? Looking for answers the author notes that the new U.S. strategy is a serious challenge to Russia.

Next Steps for the U.S.-Russian Sustainable Partnership – SuPR Group

The entry into force of the New START treaty is only a first step in nuclear disarmament. In April 2010 the Sustainable Partnership with Russia (SuPR) Group was established to support long-lasting success in the efforts by Russia and the United States to work as partners on nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. The SuPR Group presents its recommendations concerning the next steps in nuclear disarmament and how both countries could better deal with the most urgent regional nuclear nonproliferation challenge – the Middle East.

PAGES OF HISTORY

A Negotiator's Secrets – Aleksey Obukhov

As the time of the first Soviet-American strategic arms limitation talks recedes ever farther into history, let us look from today's perspective at the work of the Soviet delegation – first in Helsinki and Vienna, then in Geneva, but always in close contact with the U.S. delegation. The agreements the two teams were negotiating have played a truly historic role in world politics and diplomacy. The author, who took part in the strategic arms limitation talks in 1969-1991, presents his look on the negotiation's process and unveils some of the secrets of the real diplomacy.

LIBRARY

BRICS: Dawn of New Era, or Business as Usual?Boris Martynov

From an acronym coined by Goldman Sachs in 2001, BRIC first came into being in 2005 when Brazil, Russia, India and China decided to conduct consultations together at the level of senior officials. Today the ranks of the opponents and advocates of the BRICS as a part of the new world order have swelled, with endless intellectual battles raging between the analysts over the structure's future, and a multitude of new research into the subject. The article reviews two compilations of expert reports – from Russia and from India.

China's Search for Green DevelopmentEvgeny Petelin

The international negotiations on measures to curb climate change are becoming more intensive every year. The most important issues of the climate talks is a problem of carbon dioxide emissions, and there is no surprise that in 2008 China became the biggest producer of greenhouse gases on the planet. Meanwhile, pollution of the atmosphere is not China's only environmental problem. The article reviews a monograph by Igor Ushakov, “Ecological Labyrinth. Social and Economic Aspects of Natural Resource Use in China”, that offers an analysis of the current situation, experience and prospects of the environment protection in China.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

PIR CENTER ADVISORY BOARD, INTEG AND SUPR GROUP MEMBERS

FINAL QUOTES

On History

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