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From the Editor

The PIR Center Publishes a Russian Journal on International Security. “Whatever the puzzles in international relations, and no matter how the threats and challenges to Russian security have multiplied, we wish our readers the best as they peruse the pages of our journal.  We hope that this journal will help to determine how Russia should answer these challenges and threats, and indicate the new areas that are opening up to Russia as it grows stronger,” notes Security Index editor-in-chief Vladimir Orlov as he guides the reader through the pages of the first issue of this new journal, while answering questions about how this periodical differs from its predecessor, Yaderny Kontrol, and to what degree it will continue that journal's 12-year tradition.

The PIR Center Publishes a Russian Journal on International Security (full text)

2007, №81, Security Index

Security Index image
Issue: №81
Text:

SECURITY INDEX

Russian Journal on International Security

FROM THE EDITOR

The PIR Center Publishes a Russian Journal on International Security

“Whatever the puzzles in international relations, and no matter how the threats and challenges to Russian security have multiplied, we wish our readers the best as they peruse the pages of our journal.  We hope that this journal will help to determine how Russia should answer these challenges and threats, and indicate the new areas that are opening up to Russia as it grows stronger,” notes Security Indexeditor-in-chief Vladimir Orlov as he guides the reader through the pages of the first issue of this new journal, while answering questions about how this periodical differs from its predecessor, Yaderny Kontrol, and to what degree it will continue that journal's 12-year tradition.

INTERVIEWS

Azerbaijan is accustomed to relying only on its own resources and therefore does not join coalitions” - Ilham Aliev

President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliev, in an interview conducted by Security Index editor Sergey Brilev, reflects upon his country's domestic and foreign policy, advances in his nation's energy projects, and the achievement of social and economic stability in Azerbaijan.

“The current situation in the Middle East is a good illustration of what results from the U.S.export of democracy” - Yevgeny Primakov

In an exclusive interview for Security Index, academician Yevgeny Primakov—a person who needs no introduction—shares his views of recent events in the Middle East, a region to which he has dedicated many years of his life and professional activity. He assesses the trends in the region and forecasts likely developments there in the coming months.

“Against terrorism, there can be no neutrality” - Samuel Schmid

Security Index editor-in-chief Vladimir Orlov talks to the head of the Swiss Federal Department of Defense, Civil Protection, and Sport, Federal Councillor Samuel Schmid, about terrorism and international security issues.

“There is deep realization in Indian political circles of the enduring value of India's relations with Russia - Kanwal Sibal

In an interview with Security Index editor-in-chief Vladimir Orlov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of India to Russia Kanwal Sibal expresses his opinions on India's relations with Russia, China, and the United States; his views on the mixing of religion and politics; and examines the issues of energy security and nuclear energy as well as nuclear nonproliferation.

ANALYSES

Security Index of a Globalized World: The Russian dimension - Yury Baluyevsky

Globalization is creating new spheres of state cooperation, while multipolar and unipolar trends stand in opposition to each other. How should Russia act under these circumstances? What is its role in these processes? Systemically examining the current geostrategic situation, the chief of the Russian General Staff defines Russian national interests and outlines ways to realize them.

Nuclear Threat Perceptions and Nonproliferation Responses: A Comparative Analysis - Scott Parrish, William Potter

Divergent perceptions of the proliferation threat play a significant role in the nonproliferation regime. By analyzing threat perception and resulting state policy preferences, the authors help identify issues on which a convergence of views, if not consensus, might be generated, and highlight those issues for which it will prove difficult to gain support for collective action.

The Great Caspian Caviar Game - Ekaterina Shadrina

The Caspian region is rich in hydrocarbons. An additional wealth of this unique reservoir, its other black gold, is caviar. And this wealth is rapidly disappearing. Why? Who unleashed the caviar wars, and can this environmental bioterrorism be stopped?

Islamist Terrorism Today: Global and Regional Levels - Ekaterina Stepanova

In the past two years, the level of global terrorist activity has been unprecedented. In addition to quantitative indicators, terrorism has also reached a new qualitative level, as seen in the terrorist incidents of July 2005 in London and the confluence of terrorist methods and insurgent war in Iraq and Lebanon. The article examines the various levels of radical Islamist terrorist activity in detail as well as measures to counter them.

VIEWPOINTS

What Does Ahmadinajad Have in Common with Gavrilo Princip: Solving the Iranian Puzzle - Alexei Arbatov vs. Andrei Piontkovski

Two experts, two opposing views. Iran has a right to its own peaceful nuclear program, but its arrogant policy in the region and the world lead one to doubt that the nuclear program is exclusively peaceful. Will the policies of the current Iranian leadership cause the situation in a region that is already unstable to explode, and will this lead to global political catastrophes—these are the questions the two experts argue about in a discussion via e-mail that is published in this issue.

COMMENTARY

The Two St. Petersburg Summits - Vyacheslav Nikonov

In July 2006 the summit of the G8, under Russian chairmanship for the first time, was held in St. Petersburg. At the same time a U.S.-Russian bilateral summit was held. These events were critical to the development of Russia's relations with the West in 2006.

REVIEWS OF WORLD EVENTS: JULY – NOVEMBER 2006

The iSi Index  - a comprehensive index of international security

Developed by the PIR Center through a project that has lasted for more than a year, it is now undergoing international review. The goal of iSi, an international security index, is to quantitatively express the dynamics of global processes in this sphere. What was the index in July? In October? We will publish the iSi indicators along with relevant commentary by the PIR Center International Expert Group.

A View by a Russian Liberal: “Apeasers and Crocodiles”  - Yury Fedorov

“Helpless in the face of new challenges for the past several years, the global community (or, to be more precise, contemporary Judeo-Christian civilization) involuntarily brings to mind the Roman Empire in decline, perishing due to attacks by barbarian tribes. The most recent world events once again confirm that pacifying the ambitions of aggressors only aggravates the situation yet further.”

A View by a Russian Conservative: “Apocalypse? No!” - Dmitry Evstafiev

“International developments reflect the increasingly crazy-quilt nature of the world, where military strength is beginning to play a new role and there is new competition over resources. New bumps are appearing on the smooth road to post-bipolarity that not only squeak under the wheels but seriously hamper human progress. Will this be the beginning of a new era that is marked not just by a date on the calendar, but also by global changes?”

HISTORICAL PAGES

1983: Turning Point of the Cold War - David Hoffman

Security Index has obtained  rights to the publication of an excerpt of the upcoming book by this authoritative American journalist on the unknown pages in the history of the U.S.-Soviet confrontation.  The article is dedicated to 1983, one of the most tense years of the Cold War.  It was the year that President Reagan launched the Strategic Defense Initiative, and the year that he called the Soviet Union an “evil empire.” It was the year that a Soviet pilot shot down the Korean Airliner, Flight 007, and the year in which NATO installed the Pershing II and Ground-launched Cruise Missiles in Europe…

LIBRARY

General Vandam: the forgotten founder of Russian geopolitics - Sergey Ponamarev

The works of Carl von Clausewitz, Helmuth von Moltke, and Alfred Thayer Mahan are acknowledged as the founders of the science of “geopolitics,” which took its first conscious steps at the turn of the 19th century. However, those who tried during the same period to create a basis for the future science in Russia have been forgotten. One of these forgotten authors is the Russian general Aleksey Vandam (né Edrikhin).

The Roughness of a Flat World - Mikhail Yakushev 

In several hundred pages of captivating narrative, Thomas Friedman's The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century categorically asserts or proves on the basis of numerous examples that thanks to information technology our world has become “flat.” But is this true for the entire planet?

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

The Importance of the Nuclear Weapons Complex Should be Legally Formalized - Viktor Zavarzin

In the opinion of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee chairman, a special federal law should be drafted that determines the status and the legislative basis for the activities undertaken by the nuclear weapons complex and provides for the state support of organizations subordinate to it.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

PIR CENTER ADVISORY BOARD

FINAL QUOTES

“On Optimism”

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