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2011, №97, Security Index

Security Index image
Issue: №97

(International Edition)

NO. 4 (97), Fall 2011



The Middle East WMD-Free Zone: Searching for Solutions

“Any further delay with practical preparations for the Middle East WMD-Free Zone Conference in 2012 would mean a certain failure. The participants will have to adopt several decisions to map out the road ahead. These decisions should include regional confidence-building measures, as well as the launch of the work to draft the future treaty on a WMD-free or nuclear weapons-free zone in the Middle East,” – writes Editor-in-Chief of the Security Index journal, Vladimir Orlov, in From the Editor.


The European Convention on Cybercrime Is Inadequate to the Task Ilya Rogachev

How successful is the ongoing cooperation within the UN framework in countering terrorism? What is the role played by Russia in developing and implementing measures against new challenges? What is, and what should be the role of non-government actors in anti-terror partnership? We have put our questions to the Director of the Department on New Challenges and Threats of the Russian Foreign Ministry Ilya Rogachev.

Developing Strategic Partnership Based on Equality and Pragmatism Volodymyr Yelchenko

Clashes of interests in the Russia-Ukraine-EU triangle… The Customs Union… Missile defense in Europe... What is Ukraine's stance on these contentious issues? What are the prospects for cooperation between Russia and Ukraine in key areas of European security, especially given that Ukraine will take over the rotating chairmanship of the OSCE in 2013? And what are the prospects for trade and economic relations between the two countries? We have put our questions to the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the Russian Federation Volodymyr Yelchenko.


Conventional Armed Forces in Europe: Yesterday, Today… Tomorrow?.. (Part II) Anatoly Anin, Rodion Ayumov

Russia and Europe both need a new conventional arms control regime in equal measure. A long-term, predictable and sustainable cooperation in the framework of such a regime would have positive effects not only for security, but also for all the other areas of Russia's cooperation with the European countries. Analyzing Russian official documents the authors outline Russia's national interests and approaches to specific aspects of resolving the problem of conventional arms control in Europe.

China's Energy Monologue in Central Asia Evgeny Petelin

During the last decade the region of Central Asia has got a network of pipelines to export energy to China. In the longer time frame that will give Beijing a major role in this region's politics and economics. What is the role of Central Asia in China's energy security? What are the instruments used by Beijing to achieve its energy goals in the region? Why the Chinese-Central Asian energy cooperation seems to be so one-sided? These issues are analyzed by the author.

Regional Security Cooperation in the Post-Soviet Space – Yuliya Nikitina

Pursuing a flexible policy of balancing between the great regional powers several CIS nations participate in regional organizations and cooperation platforms whose objectives and membership are very similar. The author analyzes the activity of two regional security organizations in the post-Soviet space – the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and describes the prospects for coalition between these institutions with the focus on Afghan threat in the region.

WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East: from Ideas to Reality – Ivan Trushkin

The need to prevent a nuclear arms race in the Middle East has been on the international agenda for decades. The 2010 NPT Review Conference made the decision to convene in 2012 a conference on the issue of establishing a WMD-free zone in the region. A wave of unrest in 2011 has given rise to obvious skepticism about the likelihood of this event. What should be expected from the conference in 2012? Examining the 35-year history of the negotiations the author estimates the prospects for implementing the idea of a WMD-free zone in the Middle East.


From Nuclear Deterrence to Common Security – Igor Ivanov, Mikhail Moiseyev, Evgeny Primakov, and Evgeny Velikhov answered by Nobuyasu Abe, Aleksey Arbatov, Evgeny Buzhinsky, Viktor Yesin, Steven Pifer, Alexander Radchuk, Alexander Savelyev, Yury Fedorov, and James Acton

The year 2010 has seen important events in the sphere of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, with positive impact on global security. Useful as these steps are, they have not touched upon the strategic nuclear ideology of mutual deterrence. In October 2010 four Russian former policy makers have published an article “From Nuclear Deterrence to Common Security” asserting that nuclear deterrence is not effective against the new threats of the 21st century. The authors have provided their vision of the new international system based on principles of confidence, international security and stability. The Security Index has asked several international security experts to voice their opinion on this article and answer several questions.


Is the Nuclear Renaissance over? Mikhail Lysenko

After Fukushima crisis many skeptics argued that the nuclear renaissance was dead in the water, and that nuclear energy no longer had a future. Nevertheless, the IAEA Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Safety held in June 2011 in Vienna has demonstrated that nuclear energy will continue to develop. Commenting on the outcome of the Conference the Director of International Cooperation Department of the Rosatom State Corporation for Atomic Energy describes the Russia's current proposals on increasing the nuclear safety worldwide.


The iSi Index – a Comprehensive Index of International Security – in April-June 2011: the Spring Thunderstorms – Galiya Ibragimova

The Continuing military confrontation in Libya between troops loyal to Col Gaddafi and the rebels, who are supported by NATO; the ongoing wave of anti-government protests in North Africa and the Middle East; the massive influx of refugees from the North Africa crossing illegally into the EU; meanwhile, the two Palestinian factions, Fatah and Hamas, reached a historic reconciliation. Members of the PIR Center International Expert Group – Irma Arguello, Evgeny Buzhinsky, Pàl Dunay, Dayan Jayatilleka, Halil Karaveli, Andrey Kortunov, Mehdi Sanaei, Evgeny Satanovsky, Chun-Sgeng Tian, Farkhod Tolipov– comment on the recent world events.

Network Revolutions in the Arab World: Intermediary ResultsDmitry Evstafyev

What is the real impact of the “network effect” on the revolutionary wave in the Arab countries? What is the role of the U.S. in these anti-government movements? Commenting on the spring events in the Middle East the author asks even further questions – how, when and where these network revolutions are going to be stopped, and whether they can be stopped at all?

Crisis and Renaissance in Europe?Yury Fedorov

The estimates of “the decline of Europe” are often exaggerated – but not always… The Europe countries are facing a very difficult task. They need to adjust EU's social and economic model in such a way as to preserve its achievements while also eliminating the causes of the looming crisis. That crisis has not yet become irreversible, the author thinks. Overcoming that crisis will require not only changes in the structures and institutions but a serious revision of policies and strategies.


After the Reset Vladimir Orlov

There are books which every specialist simply must have on his bookshelf. For Russian-speaking nonproliferation specialists, the list of the must-have authors begins with Roland Timerbaev. But the new work by Aleksey Arbatov and Vladimir Dvorkin –– well deserves to take a prominent place on this bookshelf. Security Index's Editor-in Chief reviews a new book by the Russian researchers – “Nuclear Reset: Arms Reduction and Nonproliferation”.

Honestly About Politics? Maksim Bratersky

Most of the developed countries – first the United States, now joined by most of the Europeans – suspect Iran of pursuing a nuclear weapons program. What is the Russian detailed view of the situation with Iran? The author reviews a new book by Vladimir Ryabtsev – “The Iranian Crisis as an Object of Geopolitical Analysis: Regional and Global Context” – which offers a comprehensive analysis of the Iranian crisis and the political context in which that crisis is unfolding.



PIR Center Advisory Board, International Expert Group, and Sustainable Partnership with Russia Group members


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