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2012, №98, Security Index

Security Index image
Issue: №98
Text:

SECURITY INDEX
(International Edition)

NO. 1 (98), Winter 2012

CONTENTS

FROM THE EDITOR

Cyber Crime: A Threat to Information Security

“Computer viruses unleashed by technologically advanced terrorist organizations, as well as state-sanctioned attacks are some of the most dangerous scenarios of the near future. An attack carried out the year 2011 with the help of the Stuxnet worm against industrial facilities in a whole number of countries was comparable in terms of the damage it did to a military operation,” – writes Editor-in-Chief of the Security Index journal, Vladimir Orlov, in From the Editor.

INTERVIEW

Global Commission Calls for Legalization of Ecstasy and Cannabis – Yury Fedotov

Drug trafficking and drug abuse, corruption, money laundering and financing of terrorism, transnational cybercrime – all of these problems require serious and unconventional solutions since they go beyond the traditional security framework. Under-Secretary General of the United Nations, Executive Director of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Ambassador Yury Fedotov, in his interview talks about the prospects of legalizing the “soft drugs” as well as the other non-traditional security issues.

The Cooperation of Intelligence Services in Combating Terrorism Is EssentialVyacheslav Trubnikov

What is the new role of intelligence service in the 21st century, and how its activity correlate with the tasks of diplomacy? What are the currently most challenging problems in the work of the intelligence service? What can be done to fight the international terrorism more effectively? What is the future of open intelligence? We have put our questions to the General of the Army, Amb. Trubnikov, who served as the Director of the Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (1996-2000), the First Deputy of the Russian Foreign Minister (2000-2004).

The Reform of the Council of Europe Is Long OverdueGérard Stoudmann

How does Russia contribute the work of the Council of Europe? How does this European body contribute the social development in Russia? What are the prospects of cooperation? What are the changes this institution is going to face? The Special Representative of the Secretary General of the Council of Europe for Organizational Development and Reform in his interview talks about the main areas of activity of the Council of Europe and its priorities of cooperation with Russia.

ANALYSIS

Social Networks in the International and National Security – Oleg Demidov

The Arab Spring in 2011 has fuelled the debate among politicians, experts and journalists about the role of information technologies (especially social networks) as a factor of turmoil and revolutions. The author analyzes the individual social networking services and their impact on the world in terms of security. Given the trends in recent years, as well as the recent and ongoing online revolutions in the Middle East and other regions, the key question is what to make of the impact of social networks on international security and Russian national security.

Missile Defense: Where Does the Danger Lie? – Alexandra Khodakova

The U.S. is currently investing resources into several missile defense projects throughout the world. The goal is to create a global American missile defense system. Reassessing this system and its objectives the author analyses its future impact on the geopolitical balance of power. Once the Asia Pacific and NATO missile defense systems are in place, Russia will be squeezed by missile defense shields from both sides. Moreover, the researcher argues that the system developers are paying too little attention to the threat posed by comets and asteroids which cannot be ignored.

Nuclear Energy in Southeast Asia and Russia's Interests – Svetlana Klyuchanskaya

Looking for the best way of satisfying their electricity demand the developing countries of Southeast Asia – Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Burma, Thailand and the Philippines – refer to the opportunity the nuclear energy could open for them. Most of these countries are building their nuclear infrastructure from scratch. Describing the current situation in the nuclear energy of the Southeast Asian countries this article is focused on the prospects of Russia in this highly competitive market.

Kazakhstan: Looming Instability? – Yury Fedorov

Kazakhstan's strategic importance goes beyond the borders of Central Asia. Meanwhile, analysts are increasingly predicting the possibility of an explosive escalation of tensions between political power groups in Kazakhstan. The authorities may lose control of the situation as the succession crisis draws near. The article analyses the current mechanisms of power in Kazakhstan and unstable factors, and the outcome of the early presidential election held in 2011. The key question is, whether and how instability and chaos can be avoided?

VIEWPOINTS

Have We Lost the War on Drugs? – Yury Krupnov, Lev Levinson

In June 2011 the Global Commission on Drug Policy released a statement that condemned the ongoing war on drugs as hugely ineffective and wasteful. Countering drug trafficking is now an integral part of any national security policy. Between the two main approaches to the anti-drugs policy – prohibitive and differential – which is the more effective one? What constitutes success in countering drugs? And is there an instrument that can help us win the war on drugs in the end? The Security Index publishes correspondence between two experts who hold different views and ideas about the principles of the anti-drugs policy.

COMMENTARY

Undivided Security in a Globalized World – Igor Ivanov

The concept of international security has undergone radical transformations since the beginning of the 21st century. The principle of deterrence on a global level is becoming obsolete – and on the regional level it is becoming irrelevant. How to overcome the chronic instability in the globalized world? How to make international institutions function effectively? The author – a former Russian Foreign Minister – notes that a globalized world will begin as a tight network of mutually complementary international regimes.

The World after Libya: Neocolonialism in the 21st Century – Dmitry Evstafyev

What did ensure the effectiveness of the NATO operation in Libya? What does the Libyan scenario actually mean from the political and military point of view? Comparing the Libyan operation with a colonial war the author emphasizes the modern aspects of this scenario. Moreover, he argues that a foreign military intervention in Russia and post-Soviet countries is no longer inconceivable.

Nuclear Energy in the Gulf Cooperation Council StatesAwadh Al Badi

The willing to develop and use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes was announced by the Gulf Cooperation Council states. The article is focused on the measures taken by these countries to identify the current and future need in electric power, to start developing a nuclear energy capacity, to prepare the institutional and legal framework for this program, and to create a nuclear nonproliferation culture in the region.

PAGES OF HISTORY

The End of Global Equilibrium: A Counter-narrative from the South – Dayan Jayatilleka

The world balance has changed irreversibly in 1991 with the collapse of the USSR. It was followed by the weakening of the Russian state, and appeared to provide the space for China's rise. Suggesting a counter-hegemonic explanation of the downfall of socialism, the article argues that it was determined by the changing power relations between the two Communist centers. It states even more specifically, that the decisive factor was the evolution of Chinese foreign policy following the Sino-Soviet schism.

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

On SuPR Group Proposals – Mikhail Ulyanov

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

PIR Center Advisory Board, International Expert Group, and Sustainable Partnership with Russia Group members

FINAL QUOTES

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