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2009, №86, Security Index

Security Index image
Issue: №86
Text:

SECURITY INDEX

Russian Journal on International Security

No.1 (86), Winter 2008/2009 Fall 2008

FROM THE EDITOR

On History-Makers and History Grave-Diggers. In his Editorial, Dmitry Polikanov speaks about the increasing tensions and unpredictability of global development and the need for a new security architecture that should overcome the current pragmatic, power-minded and conflict-prone approach.

INTERVIEWS

Konstantin Kosachev: “We should define Russia today, its role in the world.” In his interview with Security Index, Chairman of the State Duma Committee for Foreign Affairs analyzes the changes in Russian strategy and its vision of global developments, including new approaches towards the post-Soviet space. “As far as the national idea is concerned, it is important for Russia to be a successful nation. We are yet to achieve the status of a competitive country, to become a nation that exists not only because of huge natural resources, but a nation that can be more capable intellectually than any other state,” he maintains.

Key words: Russian foreign policy, international affairs, global development.

Vladimir Orlov: “Illusions no more: Russia-U.S. strategic relationship after the Georgian crisis.” In an interview with Security Index, PIR Center's President answers the questions of U.S. experts and media on the future of the bilateral relations and remaining windows of opportunity, which are not many, especially with regard to the dialogue on nonproliferation and disarmament. He argues that “there is no strategic dialogue any longer. The crisis in Georgia has ruined it. There is strategic dumbness, if you wish, or if we try define this gloomy situation in more optimistic terms – strategic pause. However, it may last long and may be cut only by strong political will on both sides.”

Key words: Russia-US relations, strategic partnership, nuclear disarmament, Georgian crisis.

Sergey Ponomarev: “Our major goal is to promote peaceful uses of outer space.” Deputy Head of the Russian Federal Space Agency presents his views on the development of the Russian space program, prospects of the industry and competitive advantages on the global market of navigation systems.

Key words: outer space, GLONASS, Russian Federal Space Agency.

ANALYSES

Anatoly Diakov and Yevgeny Miasnikov, “Post-2009 SOA Control in Russia and the United States: Space for a Compromise?” Russian experts look into approaches of Russia and the United States to strategic arms control. They further assess prospects for reduction of nuclear weapons, analyze possible options for a compromise, and propose a basic framework to replace START Treaty. They predict the extension of START I as a temporary solution before the new agreement is negotiated.

Key words: NPT Review Conference, nuclear disarmament, Russia-US relations.

Pavel Luzin, “Outer Space – Field for Conflicts, Field for Interaction.” The author analyzes the current developments in outer space exploration and weaponization, making particular focus on the U.S. activities in this area. The article also contains a brief critical overview of the Russian efforts in promoting cooperation in outer space, as well as specific policy recommendations.

Key words: outer space, US foreign policy.

VIEWPOINTS

Alexander Khramchikhin and Vitaly Shlykov, “The Russian Armed Forces: High Expectations?” Current reform of the Armed Forces is in the center of heated polemics between two renowned Russian experts in military affairs. However, both of them eventually agree that the situation is far from rosy and there is a lack of strategic insight with respect to the future development of the Russian Army, even though some measures undertaken by Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov may be praised.

Key words: Russian Armed Forces, military development.

ROUNDTABLE

“Nuclear Arsenals in 25 Years.” So what is the future of nuclear weapons in the world? What will the role of nukes in national security be and how will it change? These questions are addressed to the discussion participants. One of them is Alexander Savel'yev, who heads the strategic studies section in the Center for International Security of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) and took part in the elaboration of the START I Treaty. Another is Col.-Gen. (ret.) Yevgeny Maslin, Director General of Aspekt-Konversiya and member of the PIR Center Executive Board, who served for more than 40 years in the Russian Armed Forces. The third participant is Amb. Roland Timerbaev, Chair of the PIR Center Executive Board and one of the authors of the NPT.

Key words: NPT Review Conference, nuclear disarmament, multilateral approaches.

COMMENTARY

Vadim Kozyulin, “Disarming a Dictator.” The author deals with the issue of curbing uncontrolled proliferation of small arms and light weapons. He analyzes the recent international initiatives, including those launched by the NGO sector, and gives a sceptical overview of their prospects. He suggests four scenarios for the Arms Trade Treaty and pays particular attention to the changes in the position of Russia, which is one of the largest world arms dealers.

Key words: Arms Trade Treaty, NGO.

REVIEWS OF RECENT WORLD EVENTS: JULY-NOVEMBER 2008

The iSi index – a comprehensive index of international security. The world becomes more unstable and this is reflected in the decline of the index. Moreover, during the annual review of its basic value, the experts agreed to make it lower as the planet becomes a less secure place to live. Members of the International Expert Group – Konstantin Eggert, Dayan Jayatilleka, Zhiye Ji, Andrey Kortunov, William Potter, Abdulaziz Sager, and Yevgeny Satanovsky – comment the events.

Yury Fedorov, A View by a Russian Liberal: “Black August, or the Return of History.” “The summer of 2008 saw several other failures of Russia's foreign policy… [It] was facing the prospect of a systemic and strategic defeat. There were two ways out of the hole it had dug itself in. The first was abandoning the old strategic dogmas. But for Russia's political and bureaucratic elite, that meant admitting its own intellectual bankruptcy. The second way was raising the stakes and taking the escalation even further. Russia chose the second way by invading Georgia…The international system really is beginning to return to the strategic paradigms of the 19th century. And that truly is a sad state of affairs, for after the 19th came a century of two world wars, cruel totalitarian regimes, concentration camps, Hiroshima and Nagasaki.”

Dmitry Evstafiev, A View by a Russian Conservative: “Waiting for the Dawn of Multipolar World.” “A multipolar world is not a world in which America has declined and no longer claims the status of the only superpower. It is rather a world in which several international players have the power and the responsibility to undertake and fulfill global commitments. With that in mind, we can hardly claim that what is happening now is the dawn of a multipolar world… So far, not a single country—neither China, nor… Russia—is ready to undertake global geopolitical and geoeconomic commitments... The virtual reality of the unipolar world will be replaced by the bloody reality of regional conflicts... If the United States manages to pull this geopolitical trick off, we are all in for another 25 years of a new “American age”. America's world dominance will be so brutal that the 1990s will look a pinnacle of democracy and humanism in comparison. But if it can't pull it off, we will see what has long been foretold—“the end of history”. Of American history.”

BOOK REVIEWS

“Something for Everyone: Researchers for Iran, Plutonium for North Korea, Enrichment for Israel, ” Anton Khlopkov. The author reviews the book by Vladimir Novikov devoted to de facto nuclear weapon states and threshold countries. The book gives a comprehensive analysis of the lacunas in the nonproliferation regime and maintains that a significant role in promoting nuclear weapons development in other countries has been played by the United States, which is responsible, for example, for enormous scientific potential of the Iranian nuclear program.

Key words: NPT, nuclear disarmament, uranium enrichment.

“Teaching with History: The West and Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons,” Gennady Evstafiev. “What is really called for in this situation is a joint attempt at aversion of the nuclear threat, not unilateral decisionmaking by the United States. In order to secure Pakistan's nuclear disarmament, an overwhelming majority of UN members should join efforts in attempting to persuade Pakistan to follow the example of Germany, Sweden and South Africa in voluntarily abandoning its nuclear ambitions (persuade, not use force to deprive the country of a source of national pride). This would demand enormous political will, and might require giving Pakistan unprecedented incentives and comprehensive security guarantees, including the international nuclear umbrella Mr. Bhutto was seeking years ago. Such a scenario might sound utopian, but it's worth a try.”

Key words: Pakistan, nuclear disarmament, UN sunctions.

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Victor Litovkin, “The Future of the Russian Army.

Uzi Rubin, “Some Observations Concerning the Recent Iranian Space Launches.”

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

PIR CENTER ADVISORY BOARD

FINAL QUOTES

On laws and arms

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