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From the Editor

“The main result of the December 2, 2007 Duma elections: a long transition period in Russiais finally over. A new stage in Russia's development when has been open since then means that current national projects – designed mainly to address purely domestic issues – should be strengthened by the new ones, with even more grandeur. The key new project, it seems, should be restoration of linkage between Russia and her neighbors from the former common home – most of the former Soviet Union states,” – writes Security Index Editor-in-Chief Vladimir Orlov. “There are few people better equipped to play the role of the architect of this new Eurasian common market and of the leader of real re-integration than Mr. Putin”. In his Editorial, Vladimir Orlov also discusses Iranian nuclear program and Russian-Iranian relations.

Wanted: An Architect

2008, №83, Security Index

Security Index image
Issue: №83
Text:

SECURITY INDEX

Russian Journal on International Security


FROM THE EDITOR

Wanted: An Architect

“The main result of the December 2, 2007 Duma elections: a long transition period in Russia is finally over. A new stage in Russia's development when has been open since then means that current national projects – designed mainly to address purely domestic issues – should be strengthened by the new ones, with even more grandeur. The key new project, it seems, should be restoration of linkage between Russia and her neighbors from the former common home – most of the former Soviet Union states,” – writes Security Index Editor-in-Chief Vladimir Orlov. “There are few people better equipped to play the role of the architect of this new Eurasian common market and of the leader of real re-integration than Mr. Putin”. In his Editorial, Vladimir Orlov also discusses Iranian nuclear program and Russian-Iranian relations.

INTERVIEWS

“I do not believe that simply tightening nonproliferation controls or narrowing the definition of “peaceful uses” will solve the global nuclear threat” - Sergio Duarte

In his interview with Security Index Editor-in-Chief Vladimir Orlov, Ambassador Sergio de Queiroz Duarte, High Representative for Disarmament at the UN Under-Secretary-General level, comments on the future of the NPT and the CFE Treaty, nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea, and international uranium enrichment centers.

“CIS is not a defunct organization, its dissolution is not considered” - Andrey Denisov

In an interview with Security Index Editor-in-Chief Vladimir Orlov, Russian First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrey Denisov comments on the prospects for integrated projects in the post-Soviet space, Russia's cooperation with China, and the role of international organizations. Kosovo is another hot topic covered in the interview.

“Russia and the United States need a marriage of convenience - Mikhail Margelov

Chairman of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee shares his vision of U.S.-Russian relations, noting the key areas where the countries have something in common and where their interests diverge.

We in the Western counties export democracy as if it were the best solution, as if you should be ashamed not to have a democracy - Daniel Zappelli

This is a wrong vision of the world. In my opinion, some countries simply could not work based on democracy. Sometimes it is better to have a good, strong, “despot eclairé", as we call it in French: somebody who takes good decisions and makes sure that the people live well, are overall happy, and it should work for the people themselves. And then nobody contests the leader's decisions, And what I call imperialism of democracy, - this is what is not at all positive, is not good, and I am against it.

ANALYSES

Virtual Geopolitics in Central Asia: U.S.-Russian Cooperation vs. Conflict of Interests - Pavel Baev

An expert of the International Peace Research Institute in Oslo presents his controversial view of Russia's policy in Central Asia with the focus on energy security and potential alliances within the Russia-China-United States triangle. Baev criticizes Moscow for the lack of strategic insight and preoccupation with myths and stereotypes.

Central Asian Military Potential: Prospective Cooperation with Russia - Vadim Kozyulin 

Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan… Today the interests of the major powers are clashing in this region. PIR Center's Conventional Arms Project Director believes that thanks to its historic ties and institutionalized channels of cooperation, Russia still has a chance to play a leading role in the Central Asian arms market.

Rising Sea Dragon: a Russian View on China's Military Strategy - Sergey Ponamarev

China is actively reorganizing its military, developing modern C3I systems, and decreasing its emphasis on waging a land war in favor of naval power and achieving supremacy in the region's seas. The latter is the most significant area in the reorientation of China's strategic military doctrine and military organization. Our specialist on China asks how this will affect the Asia-Pacific region with all its potential conflicts. After all, China, which is developing and strengthening by the day, has interests of vital importance in the Asia-Pacific that it intends to aggressively defend and see fulfilled.

ROUND TABLE

Russia's Energy Policy in Central Asia and the Caspian Sea Region - Javanshir Akhundov, Pavel Baev, Gennady Evstafiev, Tatiana Mitrova, Azer Mursaliev, Andrey Mukhin, Nikita Perfilyev, Oleg Pilipets, Andrey Sinev

The expanding realm of issues tackled by the PIR Center, both in this journal and in its other activities, has led to more and more attention to the problem of energy security and Russia's role in the post-Soviet space. These materials from a round table organized by the PIR Center with the support of the Swiss Embassy in Moscow contain the experts' opinions on the aims of Russia's energy policy, and identify the main areas where interests clash as well as where cooperation is possible in the region's oil and gas sector.

COMMENTARY

U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Turkey: Yankee Go Home? - Mustafa Kibaroglu, Aylin Gurzel

Turkish experts analyze the current stance on withdrawal of U.S. nuclear weapons deployed in Turkey, as well as political implications for the country and the region on the whole. So far the authorities are reluctant to remove the nuclear weapons, in order to maintain the link with the United States and NATO allies. However, a departure from traditional foreign and security policy behavior can help Turkey to prove its status of important player in strengthening the nuclear nonproliferation regime and demonstrate that Turkey indeed shares key security concerns of its Middle Eastern neighbors.

Thoughts on Alexei Obukhov's Essay on ‘Nuclear Weapons and Christian Ethics'  - James E. Goodby

The author discusses the need for nuclear disarmament and maintains, “It is unfortunate that nuclear deterrence still bedevils U.S.-Russian relations so many years and so many earth-shaking events later. The Cold War heritage of nuclear deterrence has not yet been shaken off.”

REVIEWS OF WORLD EVENTS: JULY-DECEMBER 2007

The iSi index – a comprehensive index of international security 

The summer and fall of 2007 was a time of alarming uncertainty in the area of international security, a fact directly reflected in the fluctuations of the iSi index. Where will the equilibrium move? Members of the PIR Center International Expert Group Marian Abisheva, Andrey Kortunov, Rama Mani, William Potter, Abdulaziz Sager, Yevgeny Satanovsky, and Zhiye Ji provide their assessments and forecasts.

A View by a Russian Liberal: “Anarchy Is Loosed upon the World” - Yury Fedorov

Global uncertainty is increasing, while the ability to direct the processes taking place in the global arena is decreasing. And it turns out that the global community as such, as well as the most powerful, leading states are incapable of stopping the accumulation of negative trends.”

A View by a Russian Conservative: “Sovereign Democracy: the Global Context” - Dmitry Evstafiev

“There is a disquieting sense in the world if not of déjà vu, then of something very familiar. The international system is going through a stage of active change, and the main players in the global arena, in expectation of the new context, mainly are concentrating on tactical missions.”

HISTORICAL PAGES

On Libya, Antimissile Defense, as Well as Other Autobiographical Events - Roland Timerbaev

In September 2007 Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Roland Mikhailovich Timerbaev, the greatest Russian expert on nuclear nonproliferation and one of the authors of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), will celebrate his 80th birthday. At this time the PIR Center will publish a book of his recollections – the recollections of one of the founders of our organization, our teacher, and our old friend. In this edition of the journal we include selections from his memoirs.

BOOK REVIEWS

Military Inc. - Gennady Evstafiev 

This book by Pakistani researcher Ayesha Siddiqa on the increasing participation of the military in the business and economic life of various countries is based on rich factual material, particularly where her native Pakistan is concerned. The effectiveness of the commercial operations undertaken by the military raises great doubt, and often imposes a heavy burden both on military servicemen and on the national budget.

Disgrace, Courage and Epiphany: 444 Days that Changed America - Konstantin Eggert

Mark Bowden's new book “Guests of the Ayatollah: The Iran Hostage Crisis, the First Battle in America's War with Militant Islam,” provides a qualitatively new narrative, not only chronicling a great sweep of events related to the Iran hostage crisis and describing a large number of persons, but also explicating the scale of the problem that arose. “Guests of the Ayatollah” is a book about how the epic confrontation between the United States and radical Islam began.

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

The Dialogue on the Pages of the Journal Will Help in Shaping Russia's Foreign Policy - Sergey Prikhodko

From Deterrence to Domination” - Uzi Rubin

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

PIRCENTER ADVISORY BOARD

FINAL QUOTES

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