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From the Editor

“Although this issue intentionally presents a diverse group of articles in a multitude of styles, it nevertheless has three themes. First, the issue of disarmament and arms control. Second, the prospects for nuclear energy. And third, China's new strategic role and what it means for Russia.”

Three Cross-Cutting Issues: Disarmament, Nuclear Energy, and China (full text)

2007, №82, Security Index

Security Index image
Issue: №82
Text:

SECURITY INDEX

Russian Journal on International Security

FROM THE EDITOR

Three Cross-Cutting Issues: Disarmament, Nuclear Energy, and China 

“Although this issue intentionally presents a diverse group of articles in a multitude of styles, it nevertheless has three themes. First, the issue of disarmament and arms control. Second, the prospects for nuclear energy. And third, China's new strategic role and what it means for Russia.”

INTERVIEWS

“NATO is not laundry detergent; NATO is a unique political and military organization” - Jaap de Hoop Scheffer

The NATO Secretary General responds to questions posed by Security Index editorial board member Konstantin Eggert about NATO enlargement, Russia's relations with the Alliance, and policy towards the post-Soviet space and the Middle East.

“Manned space flight has always been an arena of political rivalry” - Alexei Krasnov

Head of the Russian Space Agency's Manned Programs Directorate Alexei Krasnov tells Security Index editor-in-chief Vladimir Orlov about the future of manned space flights and the prospects for international cooperation in space research, including lunar missions.

ANALYSES

Disarmament Returns - Gennady Evstafiev

Hopes for serious progress in the area of nuclear disarmament have not been justified. What challenges will Russia face in the disarmament process? What should its Western partners do in order to return to fruitful cooperation on all fronts? Did Russia do the right thing when it declared a moratorium on its participation in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE)? And what might Russia's next steps be, if the new dia- log with the United States, with the West, falls through?

Iran's Delivery Systems Capabilities - Andrei Frolov

In addition to nuclear weapons themselves, a state aspiring to nuclear power status must have the means to deliver them. What is Iran's capability to design and produce nuclear weapon delivery systems—if, of course, Iran really is striving to obtain nuclear weapons? 

Debating Russian Demographic Security: Current Trends and Future Trajectories - Graeme P. Herd, Gagik Sargsyan

Russia's demographic crisis poses political, economic, societal, and military security challenges. What are the policy implications of population decline, particularly as the changes are proceeding unevenly, with an increase in the “ethnic” (non-Russian) population and a decreasing population in the Russian Far East? The authors examine the problems and the fears, noting that Chinese immigration has not been as problematic as some would believe. Finally, they look at the policies that could be part of the next electoral campaign.

What Will a Nuclear Agreement with the United States Bring Russia? - Anton Khlopkov

A U.S.-Russian Agreement for Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy (a so-called Section 123 agreement) has been initialed. Is this Agreement in Russia's interest? And even if Russia signs it, is it likely to enter into force? The PIR Center's executive director examines both the political and technical aspects of these questions in his article.

Nuclear Weapons and Christian Ethics - Alexei Obukhov

The moral aspects related to the creation of nuclear weapons are rarely at the forefront of analyses and practical decisions. However, the role and use of nuclear weapons is not always determined simply by an objective examination of national interests. On the basis of his own reminiscences, experience, and extensive thought on this issue, the author analyses the little-examined role of Christian and, more broadly, religious ethics in the taking up of nuclear arms.

VIEWPOINTS

What is China to Russia, Comrade or Master? - Dmitri Trenin, Vitaly Tsygichko

Recently many experts, observing the behavior of Russia's southern neighbor—China—have been asking this question. How will the relationship between the two great powers evolve? How equal will they be? The two members of the PIR Center Advisory Board search for the answer to this question, which is critical to Russia's future, in an e-mail discussion that is reprinted here. True, at the end of their heated argument their positions remain unchanged: polar opposites.

COMMENTARY

A Proposal for a Nuclear Fuel Reserve - Laura Holgate

More and more states are beginning to ask how to ensure the most reliable and economical supply of nuclear fuel. The author outlines the Nuclear Threat Initiative's proposal for the creation of a nuclear fuel reserve, one possible answer to this question.

REVIEWS OF WORLD EVENTS: DECEMBER 2006 - MAY 2007

The iSi index – a comprehensive index of international security

During the winter and spring of 2006-07 the iSi index indicators varied widely, falling more than 100 points in December-January and only beginning to demonstrate a positive trend towards the summer of 2007. The PIR Center International Expert Group is observing Index dynamics attentively; its members provide commentaries that make it possible better to evaluate the developments taking place in international security.

A View by a Russian Liberal: "Blood And Iron" - Yury Fedorov

“Neither the international community as a whole nor the most powerful and influential states, the United States in particular, could overcome the inertia of their own policies and take decisive, innovative steps. However, it is possible that the current stagnation in world politics is in fact a sort of calm before a storm, which will have the Middle East as its epicenter.”

A View by a Russian Conservative: "A Premonition of Global Change" - Dmitry Evstafiev,

“Through the veil of diplomatic initiatives and political maneuvers, along with the strangely large number of new military programs that have been announced in the past few months, there are signs of an impending change of economic models and emergence of new technological platforms.”

HISTORICAL PAGES

On the Threshold Test Ban Treaties of 1974-76 - Roland Timerbaev

In 1974-76, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Roland Makhmutovich Timerbaev was part of the  Soviet delegation that negotiated the “threshold” treaties limiting the yield of underground nuclear explosions, conducted either for weapons testing or for peaceful purposes. The ambassador relates how the talks progressed, and how the delegations managed to conclude the first treaty containing a serious and thorough system for monitoring and inspecting nuclear explosions.

BOOK REVIEWS

In Anticipation of New Approaches - Vladimir Orlov

If “Arbatov and Dvorkin's ten points” on the need for a new policy in the sphere of nuclear nonproliferation and nuclear deterrence, spelled out in the collective research monograph Nuclear Weapons After the Cold War, do not shake the world of nonproliferation and disarmament experts, they should at the very least draw a great deal of attention to themselves. There is no doubt that these “ten points” will become—are already becoming—the starting point for new academic and, it is to be hoped, very practical discussions.

The Bomb Maker Who Doubted - Mikhail Novikov 

The book Lev and the Atom. Academician Lev P. Feoktistov: A Self-Portrait and Reminiscences, tells of one of the most important Soviet and Russian nuclear scientists, who during the course of his life went from bomb maker to convinced supporter of complete nuclear disarmament.

Between Vengeance and Retribution: A New View of the Mossad's Most Mysterious Operation - Konstantin Eggert 

The book Striking Back: The Munich Olympics Massacre and Israel's Deadly Response by former Israeli intelligence officer Aaron Klein reveals new facts about one of the Mossad's most dramatic operations, whereby it eliminated the Palestinian terrorists who shot Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics in 1972.

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

“The publication of the first issue of Security Index… is no doubt a very necessary and timely event” - Sergei Ivanov 

“I am counting on your expert assistance” - Sergei Lavrov

Security Index should become an effective and reliable aide in solving the significant issues that stand before Russia's nuclear branch” - Sergei Kiriyenko

“There is no reason to doubt the relevance of the new publication” - Sergei Chemezov

“A well-defined and topical name” - Yury Baluyevsky

“The strengths of the state, the business community, the media, and independent analytical organizations must be brought together to find effective and nontrivial answers to new challenges” - Valentin Sobolev

“The PIR Center is one of the most dynamic, deepest, and most creative think tanks in Russia” - Valery Loshchinin

“I am flattered that you chose Geneva” - Erwin Hofer

“To obtain new authors and new readers” - Nikolai Ponomarev-Stepnoi

“A platform for discussion on energy issues” - Anatoly Zrodnikov

“PIR Center publications are an important source of knowledge for students and young specialists” - Anatoly Torkunov

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

PIRCENTER ADVISORY BOARD

FINAL QUOTES

On the properties of intellect.

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