Experts

Security Index journal Editorial Board
Evstafiev, Dmitry G. image
Evstafiev, Dmitry G.
  • Position : Professor
  • Affiliation : Department of Integrated Communications, The Higher School of Economics
Fedorov, Yuri image
Fedorov, Yuri
  • Position : PIR Center Executive Board Member and Security Index Editorial Board Member
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
complete list
Security Index Journal Authors
Demidov Oleg V. image
Demidov Oleg V.
  • Position : Consultant
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
Kozyulin, Vadim B. image
Kozyulin, Vadim B.
  • Position : Project Director, Project on Asian Security; Project Director, Emerging Technologies and Global Security Project
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
Ibragimova Galiya image
Ibragimova Galiya
  • Position : Consultant
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
complete list

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2013, №102, Security Index

Security Index image
Issue: №102
Text:

SECURITY INDEX (International Edition)

NO. 1 (102), Winter 2013

CONTENTS

FROM THE EDITOR

Combining the Incompatible – Vladimir Orlov

 “There is an incongruity between Russia’s grandstanding on the international arena, with its ambitious and unwieldy initiatives on a regional and global scale, and its utter inability to bring any of those initiatives (which all sound grand on paper) to any kind of fruition,” – writes Editor-in-Chief of the Security Index journal, Vladimir Orlov, in From the Editor.

INTERVIEW

Leaving Afghanistan the United States Want to Strengthen their Presence in Asia PacificZamir Kabulov

What is the current disposition of forces in Afghanistan? Are there any prospects for a return to normalcy in the country in the wake of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) drawdown, and how will it affect the security situation in Afghanistan and Central Asia? Why is Washington in such a hurry to pull out large troop numbers, while at the same time retaining the military bases in the country? We have put our questions to Director of the Second Asia Department at the Russian Foreign Ministry, Special Presidential Representative for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov.

BRICS Economies: in Search of a Basis for Multilateral Cooperation – Vadim Lukov

As the world continues to struggle with the aftermath of the 2008-2009 economic crisis it becomes increasingly reliant on traditional and new formats of economic policy coordination and cooperative approaches to reforming the international system. What is the role of such formats as the G8, the G20 and BRICS? What are the Russian interests in each of these formats? Which one looks the more promising? These questions are addressed by Amb. Vadim Lukov, the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry Coordinator for G20 and BRICS Affairs, in his interview.

Iran, the Black List and Russia’s Upcoming FATF Presidency – Dmitry Feoktistov

One of the most dangerous uses illegal financial flows are being put to is WMD proliferation and terrorism. The Deputy Director of the Department on New Challenges and Threats of the Russian Foreign Ministry Dmitry Feoktistov in his interview talks about the Russia’s priorities in countering money laundering, the state of cooperation with the Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering (FATF), as well as the Russian plans for its FATF presidency.

ANALYSIS

Outer Space as Russia’s Soft-Power Tool – Pavel Luzin

Any success in a space exploration program is not defined solely by its specific results that can be used to achieve various foreign policy objectives. Another important criterion of success is the program’s ability to bolster the country’s international standing in various indirect ways. These indirect dividends open up a broad range of opportunities. The author argues that Russia is not making the full use of its "soft power" potential because its government lacks a clear political strategy in this area. Analyzing opportunities, internal barriers and external factors, he provides possible scenarios for such a strategy.

Central Asian Attitudes to Internet Governance and Cybersecurity – Galiya Ibragimova

Central Asia, a region where digital inequality was one of the most pressing problems only a few years ago, is now rapidly adopting information and telecommunication technologies. However, the development of internet infrastructure in the region is facing obvious difficulties. Attempts are being made to restrict access to websites of opposition parties and media outlets; attacks are being launched against sites criticizing the government; some news reports about events in the region are being filtered out. The article offers a comparative analysis of the approaches adopted by the Central Asian states to information security and internet governance.

VIEWPOINTS

Nuclear Disarmament and Nonproliferation: the American Way Christopher Ford, Thomas Graham

How relevant is the idea of nuclear disarmament in modern international situation? What are the prospects of the process of nuclear arsenals reduction? Is the Global Zero achievable? How Russian initiatives and actions are perceived in the United States? Security Index journal publishes correspondence between two prominent American experts who hold different views and ideas regarding future nonproliferation and disarmament policy of the U.S. and other countries.

COMMENTARY

Military Use of Space: Assessing the Threat – Anatoly Antonov

The deployment of various types of weapons in space could inflict serious damage on the existing arms control arrangements, especially in the area of nuclear and missile weapons. It could also trigger a new wave of the arms race, which could spiral to a whole new level. What are the types of weapons that can be placed in space in the foreseeable future? Are these plans feasible? And what measures is Russia going to take to prevent the placement of weapons in space, and facilitate the next steps in arms control?

Flame in Cyberspace – Oleg Demidov, Maxim Simonenko

In 2012 Iran reported that its oil companies had been subjected to fierce cyber attacks. The International Telecommunication Union proposed involving the Russian company Kaspersky Lab in investigating this incident. The specialists concluded that the attack was launched with the use of a virus of previously unseen complexity, which has become known in the virus base as Flame. How did Flame appear? How does it work? Could it be considered as cyber weapon? The authors comment on the prospects for combating this virus internationally, focusing on Russian approaches to ensuring the security of critical information infrastructure.

Afghanistan-2014 and the Taliban with its Head Held Proud but Low – Vadim Kozyulin

The future of Afghanistan and Central Asia depends to a very large extent on Washington’s plans for the region, and to a very small extent on the Taliban. Keeping track of the geopolitical thinking in the White House is all the more important because the United States is entering a period of depression. As an acceptable instrument of overcoming that depression, Washington may choose to end one conflict or to begin another. Barak Obama has announced that the coalition forces will be pulled out of Afghanistan by the end of 2014. What are the reasons to believe that the American project called Afghanistan-2014 has a chance of succeeding?

REVIEW OF RECENT WORLD EVENTS

The International Security Index in June-August 2012: the Summer Storms – Galiya Ibragimova

The downward trend in the summer 2012, when international tensions normally subside, was a reflection of escalating violence in Syria, lack of progress at the Iranian nuclear talks, continuing instability in the Eurozone, and a string of natural and man-made disasters. Members of the PIR Center International Expert Group – Evgeny Buzhinsky, Dayan Jayatilleka, Sergio Duarte, Pàl Dunay, Halil Karaveli, Sehlare Makgetlaneng, Mehdi Sanaei, Evgeny Satanovsky, and Farhad Tolipov – comment on the recent world events.

The Syrian Cauldron – Yury Fedorov

The autumn of 2012 saw the completion of Syria's transformation into an important source of instability in the Middle East that draws attention away from other key international problems in the region, the Iranian nuclear crisis above all. The most plausible scenario for Syria is gradual fragmentation, with the nation turning into a set of separate enclaves, independent in all but name and chaotically interacting with each other.

A Picture Frame for World Politics – Dmitry Evstafiev

The talk of the coming struggle for world leadership between China and the United States has become a foregone conclusion over the past five years. The increasingly public disagreements between the two countries – which cannot be denied—are being taken as evidence of their growing rivalry. A fresh round of discussions about the restoration of bipolarity has coincided not only with the situation in Syria, but also with semi-clownish demonstrations on the Senkaku Islands.

LIBRARY

Tales and Prophecies at a Boiling Cauldron – Vladimir Orlov

The article reviews the book “Russia and the Middle East: A Cauldron of Trouble” by Evgeny Satanovsky, President of the Middle East Institute (Russia) and former head of the Russian Jewish Congress. “This book is brimming with contentious, eccentric and outspoken ideas on a broad array of pressing issues – and that is probably why it is so engaging and thought-provoking. The cauldron is approaching the boiling point – who knows, maybe the predictions will start to come true even before you reach the end of the book?”

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

PIR Center Advisory Board, International Expert Group, and Sustainable Partnership with Russia Group members

FINAL QUOTES

On Politicians

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