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Orlov, Vladimir A. image
Orlov, Vladimir A.
  • Position : Special Advisor
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
Evstafiev, Dmitry G. image
Evstafiev, Dmitry G.
  • Position : Professor
  • Affiliation : Department of Integrated Communications, The Higher School of Economics
Fedorov, Yuri image
Fedorov, Yuri
  • Position : PIR Center Executive Board Member and Security Index Editorial Board Member
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
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Security Index Journal Authors
Orlov, Vladimir A. image
Orlov, Vladimir A.
  • Position : Special Advisor
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
Demidov Oleg V. image
Demidov Oleg V.
  • Position : Consultant
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
Ibragimova Galiya image
Ibragimova Galiya
  • Position : Consultant
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
complete list

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2013, №104, Security Index

Security Index image
Issue: №104
Text:

 SECURITY INDEX (International Edition)

 NO. 3 (104), Summer 2013

 CONTENTS

FROM THE EDITOR

Political Elites in the Era of DeficitPavel Luzin

“There is a sense of emptiness in ideas as well as actions. The key global players are plodding along their pre-determined course. There is no vitality, no verve in their actions. From the art of the possible, politics is rapidly degenerating into a sequence of pointless shamanic rituals,” – writes Assistant to the Editor-in-Chief of the Security Index journal, Pavel Luzin, in From the Editor.

INTERVIEW

Russia Forced to Develop Global Prompt Strike Weapons - Anatoly Antonov

Global prompt strike weapons (GPSW) are emerging as a new factor of strategic stability. What are the Russian and U.S. approaches to the issue of GPSW? For what purposes this kind of weapons is being developed? What threats and challenges does it bring to the international security? Would it be possible for conventional weapons to replace all nuclear weapons in means of strategic stability? We have put our questions to Amb. Anatoly Antonov, the Russian Deputy Minister of Defense.

NGOs Play a Pivotal Role in the NPT RegimeCornel Feruţă

What new developments did the 2013 PrepCom bring to the NPT review process? What new issues to discuss appeared on agenda in 2013? Was the work on the Middle East WMD-Free Zone at the PrepCom effective? Does the Oslo process impact the NPT review process? How can the participation of NGOs in the review process be evaluated? These questions are addressed by Amb. Cornel Feruta, the Chair-designate of the 2013 NPT Preparatory Committee, Director General of the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

ANALYSIS

Conventional Arms Control in Europe: Old Problems, New SolutionsOleg Shakirov

The issue of conventional arms control in Europe (CACE) remains a subject of debate. How should the borders of "Europe" be defined? What are the weapons categories that should fall under CACE arrangements? What should be the procedure for revising or amending the list of controlled weapons to make sure that the CACE regime is effective and up to date? The paper offers an analysis of the complexities facing any future CACE regime. It also looks at the proposals being made by various international players, with a special emphasis on the political aspects, including Russian policy in this field.

Nuclear Energy in the Middle East: Russia’s Interests and RoleAndrey Baklitskiy

Nuclear energy in the Middle East is becoming a highly profitable industry, rather than merely a source of risks and nuclear proliferation threats. Russia has one of the strongest positions in the Middle Eastern nuclear energy market. The Russian state-owned corporation Rosatom has built the region’s first nuclear power plant in Iran, and signed large contracts for NPP construction and nuclear fuel supplies with several countries in the region. PIR Center researcher Andrey Baklitsky offers his view of Rosatom’s competitive advantages over its Western rivals.

Why South Africa Needs BRICS, Why BRICS Needs South AfricaVladimir Shubin

South Africa hoped to achieve several long-term goals by joining BRIC. It wanted to prevent its own marginalization and to maintain its positions as the leader of the African continent. Nowadays it has become an integral part of the BRICS forum rather than a second-class member. South Africa has demonstrated its capability to offer an engaging agenda to other members of the bloc. It was precisely at the 2013 Durban summit that the BRICS leaders began to work on several projects which have a genuinely global potential. That is why it is worth taking a closer look at South Africa's role and strategy in BRICS.

ROUND TABLE

International Information Security and Global Governance: a View from Geneva Ben Baseley-Walker, Constance Bommelaer, Markus Kummer, Alexander Matveev, Vladimir Orlov, Jaroslaw Ponder, Walter Reid, Viktor Vasilyev, Rolf Weber, Mikhail Yakushev

The first decade of the 21st century was marked by revolutionary changes stemming from skyrocketing development of information and telecommunication technologies world over. Those changes affected virtually all dimensions of social processes, including international relations — from social and political change in the Arab world to an unprecedented growth in politically motivated hacktivism draining national secrets out to open network as well as in development of cyberwarfare and cyberespionage tools. At the same time, there is growing global concern over ways of preventing wars in cyberspace. The internet itself and its evolution do not univocally define all of these processes, still they certainly provide fundamental basis for their further development.

COMMENTARY

The Outlook for UAV Research and DevelopmentEvgeny Buzhinsky

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are currently regarded as one of the key instruments of bolstering the fighting ability of combat units and formations in various armed services. The vast majority of experts believe that in the future wars and military conflicts of the 21st century, all militarily advanced countries will base their strategies on the use of UAVs. Can the UAVs potentially replace the traditional planes and helicopters? And what is the future of unmanned aviation in Russia? PIR Center expert examines the issue.

Cyberwarfare and Russian Style of CyberdefenseOleg Demidov

A clash of nations on a virtual battlefield – in cyberspace – is no longer a fantasy. Cyberespionage, cybersabotage, and other hostile cyberoperations have become a fact of life. They have recently been exemplified by the outbreaks of the Stuxnet, Red October and Flame malware, which mainly targeted Iran, as well as a recent wave of DDoS attacks against U.S. financial institutions. Cyberwars are knocking on the doors of a growing number of countries – but the cyberspace itself still remains a battlefield without rules or restrictions. The article offers an analysis of the current state of cyberthreats and the dangers posed by confrontations in cyberspace. It also looks at Russia’s current and future steps to strengthen its cyberdefenses.

REVIEW OF RECENT WORLD EVENTS

International Security Index in January-May 2013: Chaotic volatilityGaliya Ibragimova

The situation in Syria and neighboring countries continues to depress the International Security Index (iSi); the state of security on the African continent is also worrying. A flare-up in North Korea has quickly ended without any serious consequences. Political difficulties in Europe make it hard to predict its social and economic prospects. An exchange of letters between Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama has not brought any positive changes in Russian-U.S. relations. Members of the PIR Center International Expert Group – Irma Arguello, Evgeny Buzhinsky, Dayan Jayatilleka, Halil Karaveli, Andrey Kortunov, Sehlare Makgetlaneng, Evgeny Satanovsky, and Farkhod Tolipov – comment on the recent world events.

The Psychopathology of International Relations Yury Fedorov

The Middle East has essentially become a turbulence zone, and there are no optimistic scenarios for the region at the moment. The United States has completed the reorientation of its foreign-policy course towards Asia, but its success will also depend on the situation in the Middle East. In this context, Russian-U.S. relations have shifted to the periphery of global affairs.

The Cracked Edifice of World PoliticsDmitry Evstafiev

It is becoming increasingly obvious that the U.S.-centered global financial system is gradually being dismantled. The banking crisis in Cyprus has been a major event not just for the European economy but also for the tightly linked Russian economy as well. Meanwhile, the West is losing its ability to influence the political and military events taking place on the global periphery, including Syria, North Korea and Latin America. As a result we are witnessing the formation of a post-neocolonial reality in which military power is becoming increasingly important.

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Qatar in Big Politics: How Should Russia Work with It?Evgeny Satanovsky

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

PIR CENTER’S EXPERT GROUPS

FINAL QUOTES

On Hope

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