Experts

Security Index journal Editorial Board
Orlov, Vladimir A. image
Orlov, Vladimir A.
  • Position : Special Advisor
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
Fedorov, Yuri image
Fedorov, Yuri
  • Position : PIR Center Executive Board Member and Security Index Editorial Board Member
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
complete list
Security Index Journal Authors
Orlov, Vladimir A. image
Orlov, Vladimir A.
  • Position : Special Advisor
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
Demidov Oleg V. image
Demidov Oleg V.
  • Position : Consultant
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
Kozyulin, Vadim B. image
Kozyulin, Vadim B.
  • Position : Project Director, Project on Asian Security; Project Director, Emerging Technologies and Global Security Project
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
complete list

PIR Center recommends to read

The recent PIR Center report, “Iran in the Regional and Global Perspective” offers a fresh twist on advice for negotiators as they continue to work on an agreement. As a compilation of articles by experts who met in Bangkok and Moscow in 2014 to explore the prerequisites of longer term solutions for...

The book “The Dead Hand: The Untold Story of the Cold War Arms Race and Its Dangerous Legacy” by David Hoffman is a true documentary thriller focusing on the most difficult period of the 20th century. The international situation at that time is described as teetering on the brink of a nuclear world ...

In his monograph “Post-Imperium: a Eurasian Story”, a reputable Russian analyst and Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center Dmitry Trenin argues that the Soviet Union collapsed largely because Russia itself had grown tired of its imperial status and lost its imperial momentum. The book goes beyond fo...

All articles

2014, №108, Security Index

Security Index image
Issue: №108-109
Text:

SECURITY INDEX (Global Edition)

No. 3-4 (108-109) Summer-Fall 2014

CONTENTS





EDITORIAL

No Peace No War 2015: An Outlook for Cyberspace and Global Security  - Oleg Demidov

In 2014 cyberspace has become a distorted mirror for the global security agenda and what this mirror reflects now is a situation which could be described by Leo Trotsky’s formula ‘‘No peace no war’’ which was used almost a century ago to wreck the negotiations on the separate peace between the German Reich and the Bolshevists government in Russia. What this formula implies is a shift away from elaborated longer-term strategies and institutionalized decision-making procedures to the domain of situational judgments and frenemy type relationships. This has always been quite a typical pattern for cyberspace, but 2015 might be its crescendo. No war no peace between Russia and the USA, signing agreements on CBMs in cyberspace, but fighting desperately over the internet governance in cyberspace. No war no peace between Beijing and Washington engaged in strategic cybersecurity talks but stabbing each other in the cyberespionage arena. USA-Brazil, the NSA the EU, ICANN-Russia in cyber affairs ... and no peace no war beyond the distorted mirror of cyber domain e.g., in the RussiaUkraine relations. This is the world of 2014, and likely to even more extent of 2015.

INTERVIEW

Brave New PIR: Turning the 20-Year Journey into Generation 2.0 - Vladimir Orlov

In 2014 PIR Center met its 20th anniversary, a milestone event which reflects a long history of challenges and victories in the windy way of conducting research in the field of international security. Instead of resting peacefully on its laurels, the think tank is actively reimaging its model and redefining its goals and strategies. How did PIR Center come to this anniversary and what plans does it have for the nearest and a longer-term future? What should be the optimal collaboration model between the civil society and nongovernmental research institutions and, on the other hand, the state in the pretty peculiar Russian case? Finally, what the PIR Center 2.0 would look like and how does it translate the experience of the older generation of experts to a younger team? All those issues are highlighted in a detailed interview of the founder and the permanent leader of PIR Center Dr. Vladimir Orlov for the Security Index journal.

Nuclear Energy and Nonproliferation Agenda for Iran: International Cooperation Priorities and Russia’s Role - Mehdi Sanaei

For many years, the Iranian nuclear program has remained one of the key flashpoints in international politics and one of the most sensitive issues in the Greater Middle East. But just over a year since the election of Hassan Rouhani as the new Iranian president, resolution of the Iranian nuclear problem seems to be closer than ever. What is Iran’s own vision of its nuclear industry development goals, and what does it hope for in terms of international cooperation in that area? Does it regard Russia as a promising partner for current and future nuclear energy projects? What are the basic principles of the Iranian leadership as far as nuclear nonproliferation is concerned? Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the Russian Federation Mehdi Sanaei highlights these issues in his interview to Security Index.

Vietnam’s Nuclear Power Industry: Key Projects and International Cooperation Priorities - Hoang Anh Tuan

Back in the end of 1990s, Vietnam launched its first projects in the field of nuclear power Today the government plans that Vietnamese NPPS will provide 15 percent of the nation’s demand for power supply by 2015 already. To meet its ambitious goals Vietnam has been intensively developing international cooperation with the nuclear powers possessing vast experience in this field, including the USA, France, South Korea and Japan. Among this list, cooperation with Russia has become a special priority for Vietnam, with the bilateral intergovernmental agreement of 2010 implying construction of the NPP Ningh Thuan 1 by Rosatom. What are the future prospects of Russian-Vietnamese cooperation in the field of nuclear energy? How does the country see its longerterm goals in this area? The interview by Director General of the Vietnam Atomic Energy Agency Dr. Hoang Anh Tuan sheds the light on the nuclear future of Vietnam.

ANALYSIS

Towards the NPT Review Conference of 2015: Deceptive Ease of the Third PrepCom No Harbinger of a Miracle - Andrey Baklitskiy

A research associate of the PIR Center who has been involved since 2011 in extensive research activities on the issues of nuclear nonproliferation and peaceful nuclear energy in the Greater Middle East, examines the ups and downs of the Third Session of the PrepCom half a year ahead of the 2015 NPT Review Conference. Andrey Baklitskiy, who also participated in the work of the PrepCom as a representative of the Russian NGO, notes a distinct lack of progress in the implementation of the 2010 Conference Action Plan. With regard to nuclear disarmament, no visible progress could be witnessed at all; similarly, the perspectives of holding the conference on establishing a WMD-free zone in the Middle East look more and more distant. These are just some of the problems that the international community will have to deal with in 2015.

What Future for the NPT? - Vladimir Orlov

As the 9th Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference is scheduled to commence on April 27, 2015, the reality feeds mounting uncertainty about the longer-term trajectory on the Treaty’s implementation process. With the past RevCons and PrepComs being a kaleidoscope of local successes and failures, the coming Review Conference promises neither breakthroughs nor definite responses to some long-standing questions about the NPT’s future path in the increasingly turbulent international realities. The fundamental challenges capable of blowing NPT would come true only if the future flow of international negotiations and global process undermines the principle of equal importance of the NPT’s three pillars nonproliferation, disarmament, and peaceful use of nuclear energy. This threat might be brought to life by a combined impact of a number or risks ranging from the failure to establish the WMD free zone in the Middle East and stagnation of the U.S.-Russian bilateral disarmament talks to North Korea nuclear program running wild. Dr. Vladimir Orlov, President of the PIR Center, makes an in-depth study on what future brings to NPT as a cornerstone of global stability and security.

Lethal Autonomous Robots: A Test for the International Humanitarian Law -  Elliot Serbin

The recent decades were marked with a tremendous progress in the development of the robotic technologies and their adaptation for practical use in very different fields and niches. However, in the nearest future the real beneficiaries of this technological progress might become the military, who are trying to bring to life a new class of lethal autonomous robotic systems (LARS). In 2013 the issue of LARS was for the first time addressed at the UN General Assembly. But what seems to be an early call in fact might be a belated reaction; the killers robots are a total blank spot for the existing system of the international law, including the international humanitarian law (jus in bello) and the law of armed conflict (jus ad bellum). The author explores how the international community might try to respond to this legal challenge now, in a decade before we witness LARS performing combat missions throughout the world.

U.S.Russian CBMs in the Use of ICTs: A Breakthrough with an Unclear Future - Oleg Demidov

Since 1998, Russia and the USA have been conducting a dialogue on the issues of cybersecurity, both in multilateral frameworks and bilaterally. Throughout this time, there was more of a rivalry of two fundamentally different approaches with global projections than of a mutually beneficial cooperation. Quite surprisingly, in June 2013 Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin signed a set of bilateral agreement on confidence building measures in the field of the use of ICTs. The agreements enforced adaption of the Russian and the U.S. Nuclear Risk Reduction Centers to the exchange of information on cyber incidents, gave green light to collaboration of the two countries’ Cyber Emergency Response Teams, etc. What is the future of these agreements now, in the midst of the deteriorating crisis on the U.S.- Russian relations? Addressing this question, the article also highlights ways of potential application of the bilateral experience in CBMs for cyberspace to multilateral frameworks.

Weapons of Mass Destruction in Muslim Fatwas - Kamal Gasimov

Beyond diplomatic negotiations, political debates and expert discussions on the WMDs and their role in the world there are other ways and dimensions on thinking on those issues that are extremely rarely addressed as a subject of research. There are doctrinal disputes in the world’s major religions on the very existence of the weapons of mass destruction and their status with regard to the divine order. Doctrinal thinking in that field has become especially notable and developed in Islam, giving birth to a variety of religious behest fatwas dedicated to the issues of WMDs. How does Islam perceive nuclear weapons and other WMDs? How could the existence of the nuclear doomsday machine in the world be accommodated with the wisdom of the Creator? Kamal Gasimov, expert of the Center for Strategic Studies under the President of Azerbaijan unravels the secrets of Islamic fatwas on the WMDs.

ROUND TABLE

Iran In The Regional And Global Context: is There Life after the Comprehensive Agreement?  - Andrey Baklitsky, Kayhan Barzegar, Wu Bingbing, Farhad Mamedov, Eman Ahmad Ragab, Tariq Rauf, Mustafa Fetouri, Mohammed Shaker

The roundtable is based on the discussions held in 2014 in the framework of the high-level working group ‘‘Iran in a Regional and Global Context’’ established by the PIR Center and the Strategic Studies Network. The participants attempted to analyze in an in-depth way the full spectrum of potential consequences of any future outcome of the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue, with regard to both regional and global context. Potential signing of the comprehensive agreement by November 24, 2014 could not only settle the situation around the Iranian nuclear program it would also open a window of opportunities for extension of this successful experience to other regional security issues, which require Iran’s involvement. However, even the sides of the negotiation process fail to achieve the agreement, the situation on the regional scale still would not collapse back to the full-fledged crisis of the times of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Arms Trade in the Age of Turbulence: The Crisis in Ukraine, Western Sanctions, and the Russian Defense Industry - Evgeny Buzhinsky, Natalia Kalinina, Vadim Kozyulin, Dmitry Litovkin

Military and technical cooperation remains on the key instruments in today’s foreign policy, the same being true for Russia even against the backdrop of the Ukrainian crisis and under the press of Western sanctions. Arms exports still have to play the role of a major component of Russian foreign trade and foreign policy aspirations, the turbulent market situation not being an excuse. However, it is no accident that in the past months of 2014 the EU, the USA and Ukraine suspended arms trade with Russia. What is the real impact of this decision for Moscow so far and is it going to mount further? Would Russia be able to effectively refocus its defense industry and exports towards the Asian markets? Finally, is Russian defense industry still capable to meet the high demands of the Russian army for advanced and high-tech weaponry? Leading Russian experts, including the PIR Center graduates, staff and the Executive Board members, contributed to the roundtable aimed to highlight these issues.

COMMENTARY

Russia in the Global Nuclear Energy Market: Trends to Foresee, Aims to Achieve - Mikhail Lysenko

As the world has recovered from the psychological shock of the Fukushima disaster in 2011 and has learnt its lessons, the global nuclear energy industry today is entering next cycle of an upward spiral, opening new emerging markets for ambitious projects. Russia is among the world’s top players in the field, with an unprecedentedly large portfolio and advantages in terms of state-of-the-art technological solutions for constructing NPPs and other nuclear fuel cycle objects. How is Russia maintaining its position in the worldwide competition for the NPP projects in the developing markets? Who are our major partners and what solutions do we offer to them? What major technological, political and other challenges have we been facing in the nuclear energy field and what is waiting the nuclear power on a global scale in a strategic perspective? Mikhail Lysenko, Director of the Department of International Cooperation at Rosatom shares this knowledge with Security Index.

Energy Exports To East Asia: The New Old Dimension of Russia’s Strategic Pivot To The East - Yury Fedorov

In the spring of 2014 Moscow moved a strategy known as a pivot to the East to the forefront of its foreign policy. The strategy, brought to life and revitalized to a major extent in response to several waves of the Western sanctions, implies reinforced development of the Russian Far East and Eastern Siberia, and puts heavy emphasis on accelerated exploration and exploitation of eastern Russia’s natural resources. One essential leverage for meeting these ambitious goals is attracting large foreign investments to the Russian energy sector and advancing Russia’s energy exports to the Asian markets. What is the state of affairs with Russian energy exports in its most important segments oil, natural gas and coal? Does the dynamism that these export niches have been demonstrating so far provide a basis for implementation of Russia’s ambitious strategy? Yury Fedorov, member of the PIR Center Executive Board, provides a detailed analysis of these issues for Security Index.

The Terrorist International: Is There a Future For a Democratic Afghanistan? - Vadim Kozyulin

The second round of the presidential elections in Afghanistan in June 2014 was a success, and the country now has Ashraf Ghani as the elected president. However, with the new president the struggle for power in Afghanistan remains far from being over as long as the Taliban exists and presents an existential threat to the current political order in the country. The new Afghan leader has to confront both the Taliban and other radical Islamist groups, and is does stand a quite good chance to succeed with a well-equipped army, trained by NATO instructors, strong support of the international community, technical and information assistance from the U.S. military, some of them still stay in the country despite the withdrawal plan. On the other hand, each month of this struggle illustrates the fact that a young and fragile democratic state is confronting not a single Islamist group, but a global and international terrorist hydra. Vadim Kozyulin, Senior Researcher at the PIR Center shares his insights on the future of democratic Afghanistan.

PAGES OF HISTORY

Nuclear Threat Reduction and Pulp Fiction by Richard Perle  - Aleksey Obukhov

The establishment of the Nuclear Risk Reduction Centers in Moscow and Washington in the end of 1980-s which followed with regard to the signing of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty became an important and longsighted step in the process of strengthening of strategic stability. Today the NRRC mechanism maintains its relevance and even expands its functions to the new issues entering the strategic stability agenda (such as prevention of cyber conflicts). But back then, in the 1980s, this decision was preceded by a set of peracute internal contradictions and intrigues both in the USA and the Soviet Union. Alexey Obukhov, one of the key participants of the negotiations on NRRCs, examines the role of the U.S. diplomat Richard Perle in achieving the compromise between Moscow and Washington on that crucial security issue.

LIBRARY

When Hooliganism Becomes a Merit - Vyacheslav Trubnikov

The new millennium has brought to the world the reality of integrated communications a complex communication phenomenon, which goes far beyond any form in its essence and functions. In fact, the true role of the integrated communications is being an instrument of exploitation and a carrier of ideology. These are the key arguments and discussion points presented to the reader in the monograph Integrated Communications as a Global Reality of the 21st Century. In a review of the book, Vyacheslav Trubnikov, General of the Army and member of the PIR Center Executive Board admits that embracing such a subject in a single issue would be close to impossible unless the author resorts to a breaking-the-mould genre, as Dr. Evstafiev exactly did. 500 paragraphs of academic hooliganism manage to bring the subject to the reader in an unfragmented way, which is even more valuable with regard to its applied aspects, such as the geopolitical origins of integrated communications.

The NPT RevCon 2015: Time to be More Ambitious - Tariq Rauf

The non-governmental White Paper ‘‘Towards Nuclear Disarmament: NPT Article VI and Implementation of the 2010 Review Conference Decisions’’ prepared by the PIR Center was in the focus of a discussion organized in the margins of the 2014 NPT PrepCom in New York in May 2014. Today, it is reviewed for Security Index by Tariq Rauf, Director of Arms Control and Nonproliferation Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute and former Principal at Global Nuclear Solutions at the IAEA. The author matches the good news picture of The P5 and NPT Article VI provided in the PIR Center’s report with his own observations of the NPT implementation process. Though the reality so far gives few reasons for optimism, and the nuclear weapons states would hardly implement the agreements reached in the NPT Review process, the 12 Steps Towards Launching Multilateral Nuclear Disarmament, crowning the PIR Center’s report provide useful and relevant solutions for some of the issues to be raised at the NPT RevCon of 2015. So the PIR Center should be more ambitious about updating and promoting its White Paper in New York next spring.

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

PIR CENTER 20TH ANNIVERSARY - CONGRATULATORY LETTERS - Alexei Arbatov, Dmitry Bugrov, Larisa Deriglazova and Savely Volfson, Robert Einhorn, Svetlana Klyuchanskaya, Aleksandra Kowalczuk, Viktor Murogov, Irina Novikova, Nikita Perfilyev, Nina Rozhanivaskaya and Denis Shvedov, Ilya Sachkov, Viktor Sumsky, Dmitry Trenin, Bakhtiyar Tuzmukhamedov, Viktor Vasilyev, Andrey Yarnykh, Igor Zevelev, Olga Zinevich

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

PIR CENTER

PIR CENTER ADVISORY BOARD, INTERNATIONAL EXPERT GROUP, SUSTAINABLE PATNERSHIP WITH RUSSIA GROUP MEMBERS

FINAL QUOTES

On the Motions of a Spirit

Comments

 
 
loading