INTERNATIONAL THREAT REDUCTION PROGRAMS:
ASSESSMENT AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
This PIR Center research project began in 1995 in the framework of the "Nonproliferation and Russia" program.
The Cooperative Threat Reduction program (CTR), also known as the Nunn-Lugar plan, is aimed at assisting former Soviet states, above all Russia, in fulfilling their international commitments in the areas of nuclear arms delivery systems reduction, nuclear safety enhancement, physical protection systems enhancement, nuclear material control and accounting (MPC&A), efficient export control system establishment, and so forth.
The PIR Center studies the success of CTR implementation in Russia and suggests how the program can be improved. To facilitate this, project researchers collect and process data on the current state of various aspects of the CTR program in Russia. The project primarily focuses on the following matters:
- Elimination of nuclear arms delivery systems;
- Development of MPC&A systems;
- Disposal of nuclear submarines;
- Measures to prevent unauthorized access to nuclear warheads and fissile materials and to restrain illicit trafficking of nuclear materials;
- Problems of plutonium disposition;
- Expanded Threat Reduction Initiative and European assistance.
The researchers attempt to answer the following questions (among others):
- How well does the CTR program correspond with Russian national interests?
- What is the relationship between US and Russian CTR participants? What are the major obstacles?
- Does the program help to prevent the risks of nuclear weapons and their components leaving Russia?
- What are the program's advantages and disadvantages within the current framework?
- What changes should be made to the process of CTR implementation to enhance its efficiency?
- In the future, will Russia be able to maintain equipment and to use technologies, acquired in the CTR framework, independently, without US financial assistance (an issue of sustainability)?
- What role should be played by other developed states, besides the US, in assisting Russia in nuclear threat reduction (the so-called Nunn-Lugar Plus)?
The project envisages the preparation of analytical reports and meetings with representatives from Russian executive structures, the US Department of Energy and Department of Defense experts, and US Senate staff officials and senators (Richard Lugar and Pete Domenici in particular). A considerable amount of information, obtained within the framework of the PIR project, is disseminated through Russian and foreign mass media. In December, 1999 the PIR Center published PIR Study Paper No. 13 "Cooperative Threat Reduction Program: How Efficient?" ed. by Ivan Safranchuk.
On September 14, 2000 the PIR Center held a meeting with Brig. Gen. Kenning, during which the expanding circle of questions about the realization of the goals of the CTR program, the financial prospects for the program’s growth, the problem of the elimination of strategic offensive arm, the destruction of chemical and biological weapons, and the transparency of Russians nuclear facilities was discussed.
July 10, 2001 PIR research associates met Gen. Habiger, former commander of the US Strategic Command and member of the Board of the Nuclear Threat Initiative. The PIR Center was represented by Director Vladimir Orlov, Deputy Director Yuri Fedorov, Senior Advisor Roland Timerbaev, Advisor Vasily Lata, and Junior Research Associate Dmitry Kovchegin. In the course of the meeting Vladimir Orlov informed Mr. Habiger on activities of the PIR Center. The parties exchanged views on a wide range of issues concerning US-Russian nonproliferation and arms control dialogue, including the implementation of the CTR Program.
The tentative results of research are published in the Russian and foreign media.
The PIR working group holds monthly meetings. It is headed by the PIR Senior Advisor Yevgeny P. Maslin, and includes, among others, Dr. Vladimir A. Orlov, Lt.-Gen. Vasily F. Lata, Dmitry Kovchegin, Anton Khlopkov.
Seminars are a vital element within the framework of this project. On July 1, 1999 the PIR Center held a seminar in Moscow entitled “The CTR Program: Prospects for Growth”. On the 11th and 12th of November, 1999 the PIR Center and the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey, California held a seminar in Moscow for Russian specialists entitled “The Stable Growth of the US Aid Program to Russian Institutes and Enterprises for the Strengthening of the System of Nuclear Materials Protection, Control, and Accounting and the Problems of Nonproliferation.”
To obtain more information about the project, contact Director of the PIR Center Vladimir Orlov. Tel.: (095) 234-0525; Fax: (095) 234-9558; E-mail: orlov@pircenter.org
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