NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL: RUSSIA AND OTHER NUCLEAR-WEAPON STATES
At present, nuclear disarmament process has stalled. In the last seven years, only the USA and Russia have committed to reduce nuclear arms and signed two START treaties. In fact, only one of these treaties is being actually implemented. The fate of further arms control negotiations is vague. Besides, Russian public and academic community are more and more disappointed with results of nuclear disarmament. These developments may ruin entire system of international agreements in the area of nuclear disarmament and will undermine nuclear nonproliferation regime; Russia may abandon transparency in nuclear sphere and pursue a hard-line nuclear policy, relying more on nuclear weapons in its military planning.
Under these circumstances, it is necessary to work out new approaches to nuclear arms reduction in the world to unite efforts of nuclear "five" and to diminish nuclear danger. This is the main objective of this research project, which falls within the framework of the program "Nonproliferation and Russia."
The project has the following goals:
- analysis of the present situation in the area of nuclear disarmament and major reasons for the current deadlock; recommendations to maintain negotiations on arms reduction; promoting Russia's interest in further nuclear disarmament endeavors;
- analysis of the role of nuclear weapons in military planning and foreign policy;
- forming positive public attitude in Russia towards nuclear disarmament and nuclear-weapon-free world.
This project has been carried out since January 1998 and is directed by PIR Deputy Director Yury Fedorov. Other members of the working group are Col-Gen. (ret.) Yevgeny Maslin, PIR Senior Advisor; Amb. Roland Timerbaev, PIR Senior Advisor; Lt.-Gen. (res.) Vasily Lata, PIR Advisor; and PIR Senior Research Associate Dmitry Evstafiev.
The PIR Center has prepared a number of reports and books within the framework of the project. These publications concern arms control issues, Russian nuclear policy and such specific and rarely studied topic as tactical nuclear weapons.
The following publications are available in Russian and in English:
- Study Paper No.10. The Future of the Russian Nuclear Arsenal. By Ivan Safranchuk, PIR Center. Edited Dr. Dmitry Evstafiev. Commentary by Gen. (ret.) Yevgeny Maslin. April 1999. 80 pp.
- Report No.15. Ivan Safranchuk. Tactical Nuclear Weapons in the Modern World and Russia's Sub-Strategic Nuclear Forces. March 2000. 30 pp.
- Study Paper No.14. Russia's Nuclear Policy: Problems and Prospects. Ed. by Ivan Safranchuk, PIR Center. May 2000, 52 pp.
- Report No.20. Ivan Safranchuk. Strategic and Tactical Nuclear Weapons: An Attempt of Classification. June 2000. 24 pp.
- Study Paper No. 15. US NMD: Implications for Strategic Stability and Arms Control. Ed. by Ivan Safranchuk, PIR Center. September 2000, 84 pp.
In February 2000 PIR Center published the report "Russians on Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Challenges". This is the first study of Russian public opinion on nuclear-related issues conducted by the PIR Center in late 1999.
In early 2001, another book of the PIR Library Series came out - Arms Control Guide -containing all major arms control and disarmament agreements with comments. The book's target audience is Russian policymakers and decision-makers at various levels. The book was prepared by the PIR experts and the experts of the 27th Central Research Institute of the MOD.
The PIR Center held several press conferences for Russian and foreign journalists: "Complete and Comprehensive Nuclear Disarmament in the 21st Century: Myths and Realities" (February 18, 1998, National Press Institute); "Russian Nuclear Policy: Before and After the Balkan Crisis" (June 3, 1999, National Press Institute), "Russian Public Opinion on Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Threats" (November 16, 1999, National Press Institute), "US-Russian Summit: Prospects for the ABM/START Dialogue" (May 30, 2000, National Press Institute), "Russian-Iranian Nuclear and Military Cooperation: Before and After President Khatami's Visit to Moscow" (March 16, 2001, Press Development Institute), "The Bush-Putin Summit in Ljubljana: What to Expect" (June 14, 2001, Press Development Institute), "Proliferation of Missiles and Missile Technologies: Threats to Strategic Stability" (July 12, 2001, Press Development Institute).
Taking into account the growing interest of academic community in these matters, the Center held Research Council meetings devoted to such issues as nuclear arms reduction, nuclear policy and disarmament, including: "The Future of Nuclear Weapons in Russia" (February 18, 1998; keynote speaker - First Deputy Head of the Defense Council Staff Sergei Kortunov); "The Future of Russian Nuclear Forces" (May 28, 1999; speakers - Yevgeny Maslin and Ivan Safranchuk); "The Current Problems of the ABM Treaty" (June 14, 2000; speaker - Ivan Safranchuk), "START III Dialogue and Future Decisions on the ABM Treaty" (October 5, 2000; speakers - Vasily Lata and Ivan Safranchuk); "Security Issues in Northeast Asia and the Developments on the Korean Peninsula" (July 3, 2001; speaker - Ambassador of South Korea to Russia Lee Jai-chun).
On February 28, 2001 the PIR Center held a seminar for the Federal Assembly "New US Administration and the US-Russian Disarmament and Nonproliferation Dialogue". Keynote speakers were Mikhail Lysenko, Deputy Director of the Department of Security and Disarmament Affairs of the MFA; Victor Koltunov, Consultant of the International Treaties Department of the MOD; and Vladimir Baranovsky, Deputy Director of the Institute for World Economy and International Relations.
In December 2001 the PIR Center plans to publish a book by Yury Fedorov on missile and missile technology proliferation and ways to curb it. This will be one of the first publications in Russia on this topic and it will cover a broad range of issues.
In February 2002, the PIR Center will hold a seminar on missile and missile technology proliferation. The PIR Center plans to invite a broad range of Russian and foreign experts and governmental officials, including the State Duma deputies and staff.
Any further information can be obtained from Project Administrator Marsalina Tsyrenjapova.
Contact information: phone: (095) 234-0525; fax: (095) 234-9558 or by e-mail: tsyrenjapova@pircenter.org
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