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SECURITY INDEX
Russian Journal on International Security
No.3-4 (88-89), Summer/Fall 2009
FROM THE EDITOR
“Fear Hath a Hundred Eyes.” In his Editorial, Vladimir Orlov speaks about the celebration of the 15th anniversary of the PIR Center and the role of new security challenges, which often become a mechanism of manipulation and require thorough and balanced analysis.
INTERVIEWS
Ünal Çeviköz, “The Platform Might Bring a New Impetus and a Functional Momentum to the Region.” In his interview with the Security Index journal Deputy Undersecretary of Foreign Affairs of Turkey speaks about the regional initiatives of this country in the Caucasus and the prospects of Turkish-Russian relations.
Key words: Caucasus region, Turkey foreign policy.
Victor Zavarzin, “NATO and Russia Need Reset.” “The aforementioned developments prove that it is not enough to return to status quo within the NRC. It is necessary to reset its functioning, to introduce the philosophy of equal cooperation. It is particularly important to restore the trust, including sincere talk about the need for our partners to comply with the fundamental principles of the NRC activities, which were agreed upon at the time of its establishment. Above all, we mean the unacceptability of attempts to maintain one's own security in detriment to the security of others,” claims Victor Zavarzin, Chairman of the Duma Defense Committee.
Key words: NATO, Russia, reset of relations.
ANALYSES
Alexander Plugarev, “Chemical Weapons Destruction: Will Russia and the United States Fulfill Their Commitments by 2012?” “Russia, however, is well on track in terms of resources and technical capacity to meet the CWC deadlines. It is obvious that the Russian policy goal is to fulfill CWC commitments (witness the numerous statements to that effect by foreign and Russian officials, as well as the successes already achieved). That will deprive the United States of the chance to use Russia's failure to meet the CWC deadlines (and Washington's friendly support has often pushed Russia towards such failure) as a justification for America's own fiasco in this area,” claim the author.
Key words: chemical weapons, disarmament, US-Russian relations.
Vasily Lata and Vladimir Maltsev, “GALILEO Project in America-EU-Russia Relations.” The authors give a thorough technical analysis of the capabilities of the European satellite program and study how it affects the EU relations with the United States and Russia. One of the conclusions is that GALILEO may become an area of fruitful and mutually beneficial cooperation between Brussels and Moscow.
Key words: US-EU-Russia relations, outer space, GALILEO.
Albert Zulkharneev, “Iran's Energy Interests in the Caspian: The Window of Lost Opportunities.” The author gives a comprehensive view of the various aspects of Iranian energy policy, including the exploration of the oil fields in the Caspian and the problem of dividing the bottom of the Caspian Sea, transit gas pipelines, and export of electricity. The article assumes that Iran is doomed to be involved in greater international cooperation, even though Central Asia is not the priority region for Tehran.
Key words: Iran, energy security, Caspian region.
Vadim Kozyulin, “Sudan between War and Peace.” The article reviews the situation in Sudan, especially through the prism of interference of Great Powers in the situation in Darfur. By comparing the interests and the influence of the United States, France, China, and Russia, the researcher tries to predict further developments, bearing in mind growing militarization of the region and huge arms supplies to different forces. The course to the isolation of President al-Bashir's regime, hence, seems quite harmful, as it destabilizes Sudan and neighboring countries.
Key words: Sudan, Great Powers, militarization of the region.
VIEWPOINTS
Dmitry Polikanov, “Russia and NATO: The Taming of the Shrew.” “If any partnership to exist, the parties have to take off their diplomatic suits, sit down together and make an honest assessment of differences and commonalities. The list of true, not propagandistic claims to each other should be prepared. And the list of areas for joint work with very specific projects. They can be fewer than listed in the annual plans of action, but there should one or two large-scale events and numerous small-scale activities, which would create the link of engagement,” maintains the author. All this requires political will and rejection of old stereotypes.
Key words: NATO, Russia, reset of relations.
ROUNDTABLE
“U.S.-Russian Dialogue on Nuclear Disarmament: What to Expect?” How should Russia act with respect to strategic offensive arms? What are the practical lanes for cooperation? Which problems should be resolved as top priorities? These questions are discussed by Sergey Koshelev, Deputy Director, Department for Security and Disarmament Affairs of the Russian MFA; Yevgeny Satanovsky, President of the Institute of Middle East Studies; Vladimir Dvorkin, Consultant of the Carnegie Moscow Center; Anatoly Diakov, Director of the Center for Arms Control, Energy and Environmental Studies of the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology; Lt.-Gen. (ret.) Gennady Evstafiev, PIR Senior Advisor; Alexander Radchuk, Advisor to the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces; Oleg Khodyrev, Advisor to the Staff of the RF Security Council; and Amb. Roland Timerbaev, PIR Center Executive Board Chairman.
Key words: nuclear disarmament, US-Russian relations, NPT Review Conference.
COMMENTARY
James Goodby, “Achieving Nuclear Zero: Way Ahead.” Amb. Goodby, one of the leading experts on nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament studies the opportunities for the establishment of the nuclear-weapon-free world, paying particular attention to the U.S.-Russian relations and the prospects of the START Treaty.
Key words: nuclear disarmament, US-Russian relations, NPT Review Conference.
George Perkovich, “Nuclear Zero: Key Issues to Be Addressed.” In his commentary, George Perkovich addresses a number of questions that relate to the practical steps of moving to nuclear zero. They include the decreasing importance of parity and the ways to calculate the appropriate balance of nuclear forces, the connection between defense and offense, as well as the problem of deterrence.
Key words: nuclear disarmament, US-Russian relations, NPT Review Conference.
Edward Ifft, “Next Steps in U.S.-Russian Arms Control.” The article contains some policy recommendations on the improvement of the strategic arms control regime. It considers a number of options as far as START and SORT are concerned and attaches particular importance to the verification mechanisms.
Key words: arms control, US-Russian relations, NPT Review Conference.
Gennady Evstafiev, “Passing the Rocks of the U.S. Initiative.” In his short overview of the U.S. proposals on disarmament and strategic arms reduction, Lt.-Gen. (ret.) Gennady Evstafiev focuses on the hidden agenda of the United States, including the desire to exchange the never-realistic missile defense program for the actual cuts in the Russian nuclear arsenal. Besides, he assumes that Washington should undertake more steps to convince Russia of its good intentions and to ensure that the atmosphere of trust is built.
Key words: nuclear disarmament, US-Russian relations, NPT Review Conference.
Joseph Cirincione, “The Obama Transformation: Can It Succeed?” In his comment the author analyzes the potential obstacles to President Obama's initiative, as well as the new opportunities and potential steps ahead in arms control and nuclear disarmament.
Key words: nuclear disarmament, US-Russian relations, NPT Review Conference.
Sergey Smirnov, “Missile Defense: Disinformation, Threat or Reality?” “The idea that the NMD system can guarantee absolute protection from missile threat is a dangerous delusion. Its danger stems not just from its ability to provoke the leadership of the country into rash actions. The entire history of weapons has demonstrated that it is impossible to create a super-weapon. The sword and the shield have no separate existence, their development is interlinked – otherwise either all the wars would have stopped by now, or theworld itself would have ceased to exist,” argues the author.
Key words: missile defense, US-Russian relations, disinformation.
Alexander Golikov, “Modern Agricultural Biotechnology and National Security.” The author analyzes the role of modern agricultural technologies, notably the GMO, in providing food security, which is an essential part of the national security.
Key words: agricultural biothechnology, national security, food security.
Seth Kinkade, “The Importance of the Russian-Chinese Energy Dialogue.” “If Russia does not develop its Eastern Siberia and Far East energy resources and restructure its distribution network to satisfy Chinese demand, it could depress more than just Russia's energy exports. China serves an important role in the world economy and has become the factory floor for the world. As the world economy regains its footing, demand for Chinese goods is likely to be robust… Restructuring Russia's energy framework to serve the emerging markets in East Asia, especially China, can ensure that Russia is capable of capitalizing on the world economic growth, as the world emerges from the current global crisis,” claims the author.
Key words: energy security, Russia-China relations, energy export, Russian Far East.
REVIEWS OF RECENT WORLD EVENTS: FEBRUARY – JUNE 2009
The iSi index – a comprehensive index of international security. After sharp downward trend in summer/fall 2008, the index has moved into the stable zone of 2,900. This indicator is 20–30 points lower than in spring 2008 and this could be accounted for by the economic crisis. Meanwhile, the level of military, political and terrorist threats in the world has returned to the same figure as a year ago. Members of the International Expert Group – Konstantin Eggert, Andrey Kortunov, Abdulaziz Sager, Yevgeny Satanovsky, and William Potter – comment the events.
Yury Fedorov, A View by a Russian Liberal: “Thinking about the Unthinkable, or Why Herman Kahn Was Right.” “Ignoring the scenarios that now appear unthinkable – such as the United States leaving Afghanistan without first defeating the Taliban, a new Cold War breaking out, Russia's disintegration, a war against Iran or a sudden and unexpected change of regime in that country leading to a new U.S._Iranian alliance – does not just make the scientific analysis of the world politics poorer. It could also lead to some very unpleasant consequences for those political leaders who cannot escape the narrow confines of what is seemingly obvious.”
Dmitry Evstafiev, A View by a Russian Conservative: “Waiting for Hope.” “In other words, the symbolic and at the same time the tragic nature of today's world is that having got rid of alternatives (unless you count a bunch of antiglobalist clowns a real alternative), the world has lost hope. Therefore there is no point in development. This is not the end of history, this is the end of development. The end of history will come a bit later. However, this is not the end of international relations either and it would be very interesting to see how the key players will be trying to achieve their goals in the face of strategic pointlessness,” maintains Evstafiev.
HISTORICAL PAGES
Irina Zueva, “Divide et Impera: Destroying Balance in the Balkans.” The author speaks about 10 years of tragedy in the Balkans, as the Serbian state-hood has been deliberately ruined, just as in the early 20th century. Making curious historical parallels, she claims that such policy may eventually force Russia to step in and to help the Balkans understand that it is the only guarantor of their sovereign existence.
Key words: Balkans, European security, sovereignity.
BOOK REVIEWS
“Confession of an American Hawk,” Gennady Evstafiev. The author reviews the memoirs of John Bolton and gives a sharp analysis of the U.S. foreign policy at the time of Bolton's active engagement in formulating the American course. “John Bolton is one of the most hawkish apologists of the idea of American Age, and a proponent of an unfettered use of America's military might to achieve the egoistic and selfish ends of the most aggressive circles of the Washington establishment.”
Key words: US foreign policy, John Bolton, biography.
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Natalya Kalinina, “Clock Ticking for Chemical Weapons Convention.”
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
PIR CENTER ADVISORY BOARD
LIST OF ARTICLES PUBLISHED IN THE SECURITY INDEX JOURNAL IN 2009
FINAL QUOTES
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