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  • Affiliation : Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
  • Affiliation : Director, Bylim Karvoni Nongovernental Research and Training Center
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iSi stands at 2719 points: Duarte, Tolipov comment events of the week

10.07.2012

p7315_1.jpgMOSCOW, JULY 10, 2012. PIR PRESS – “Uzbekistan's withdrawal from the CSTO has provoked debate about the pro-American background of the incident. Not long before the decision of the official Tashkent, it became public that after leaving Afghanistan in 2014, the NATO military equipment may be transferred to the countries of Central Asia and to remain in the region.  However, the news, in my opinion, is artificially inflated. If the CSTO member states will not overemphasize the fact, it is unlikely that American military equipment in Central Asia will be a threat or a challenge to the unity of the organization. Membership in the CSTO does not exclude cooperation of member countries with other states in the military and military-technical spheres”, - a member of PIR Center International Expert Group, independent political analyst, Farhad Tolipov.

The new weekly International Security Index iSi was published in Kommersant (in Russian). 

In Syria mass opposition demonstrations took place, the army forces attacked the village of al-Mahatta in Lebanon, where many of the Syrian refugees are hiding; five people were killed. Participants of the Group of Friends of Syria at a meeting in Paris agreed to tighten sanctions on the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Iran tested a ballistic missile capable to strike targets in Israel. Pakistan has officially approved the resumption of NATO cargo transit through the territory of the country. In Libya, parliamentary elections were held, a coalition of liberal parties is leading. In the North of Kosovo, Serbs blocked the highway in a sign of non-recognition of the authorities in Pristina. Terrorist acts were committed in Iraq, Pakistan, Syria. In Russia, in Krasnodar region more than 170 people died as a result of floods; search and rescue operations are ongoing. Earthquake in China, the storm in the U.S.A., floods in India are among the negative events of the week.

Comments on the week's events by members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center

p7315_2.jpgFarhad Tolipov (Uzbekistan) - Independent political analyst - by phone from Tashkent: Uzbekistan's withdrawal from the CSTO has provoked debate about the pro-American background of the incident. Not long before the decision of the official Tashkent, it became public that after leaving Afghanistan in 2014, the NATO military equipment may be transferred to the countries of Central Asia and to remain in the region.  However, the news, in my opinion, is artificially inflated. If the CSTO member states will not overemphasize the fact, it is unlikely that American military equipment in Central Asia will be a threat or a challenge to the unity of the organization. Membership in the CSTO does not exclude cooperation of member countries with other states in the military and military-technical spheres. Such cooperation will be obvious one-time, that is, during the withdrawal of troops and equipment from Afghanistan, not on a regular basis. Moreover, Vladimir Putin's visit to Uzbekistan, despite the signing of the Declaration on deepening strategic partnership has been quite an ordinary event. The visit did not last a single day, indicating that Putin has just jumped in to Islam Karimov, as a sign of respect on his the way to China.

p7315_3.jpgSergio Duarte (Brazil), Ambassador (ret.), High Representative of the United Nations for Disarmament Affairs (2007-2012) – by e-mail from Brasilia: The NATO did little to assuage concerns about the willingness of this alliance to use their nuclear weapons in situations that they themselves deem that use necessary. This is a grave threat to peace and security as well as an incentive to proliferation. Latin America continues to be the most peaceful and stable region in the world. Factors outside the region that may be considered to be of negative influence on Latin America and elsewhere in the world are, as always, the lack of political will on the part of the possessors of nuclear weapons to revise the reservations and interpretations they adopted upon signing the Protocols to the Treaty of Tlatelolco. The more the nuclear weapon States cling to exclusive possession of nuclear weapons, the greater will be the danger of instability and lack of confidence in the international instruments that support nonproliferation. Bad examples will eventually be followed.

The security situation in the world would improve if challenges to the international nonproliferation regime in regions such as Northeastern Asia and the Middle East were properly addressed. On the contrary, if no progress can be reached on the establishment of zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East, or if tensions in Northeast Asia are not reduced, we can expect a worsening of the security outlook. Equally important is the improvement of bilateral relations between the two major possessors of nuclear weapons. The perpetuation of the climate of distrust and rivalry that prevailed during the Cold War is a major factor of diminishing security for all. It is up to the major powers to work to increase the security climate for the benefit of the whole community of nations.  A clear commitment to nuclear disarmament - not mere reductions - is the way forward.

The iSi index is calculated weekly and monthly. A weekly iSi value is published on Tuesdays in Kommersant Daily (www.kommersant.ru) accompanied by brief comments explaining Index fluctuations. Results of the monthly iSi calculations are published on the first working day of each month at the PIR Center website at www.pircenter.org

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