Experts

  • Affiliation : Founder and Chair, Nonproliferation for Global Security Foundation (NPSGlobal)
  • Affiliation : Director, Bylim Karvoni Nongovernental Research and Training Center
complete list

Related articles

During the election campaign, Donald Trump expressed interest in normalizing relations with Russia, so there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic today about the U.S.-Russian relationship and the wider international situation. Several important questions come to mind:

  • Will the new U.S. leader att...

When the Barack Obama administration came to power in 2009, it had yet to formulate its own strategy for Central Asia. In 2009-2012 it more or less stuck to the policies whose foundations were laid under George W. Bush. Under those policies, Afghanistan remained the top U.S. priority, and all the st...

iSi stands at 2735 points: Arguello, Tolipov comment events of the week

17.07.2012

p7327_1.jpgMOSCOW, JULY 17, 2012. PIR PRESS – “The impeachment of President of Paraguay Fernando Lugo and his ousting from office had a negative impact on the security climate in the region. On the one hand, the procedure passed in full accordance with the constitution of the country, not through a military coup, which is usual for many countries in the region. On the other hand, this event raised tensions in the region and led to harsh criticism from Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay”, - Founder and Chair of the Nonproliferation for Global Security Foundation, Irma Arguello.

The new weekly International Security Index iSi was published in Kommersant (in Russian).

During the week of July 9 – 16, 2012, the International Security Index iSi increased to 2735 points. In Syria, in the village of Tremseh there was a massacre of civilians, over 200 people died. The opposition has accused the government forces for these deeds. In Egypt, protest action against the visit of the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton passed. The country's parliament, dissolved earlier with the decision of the Supreme Constitutional Court, has resumed its activities. In Saudi Arabia, there have been massive protests among the Shiite population because of the arrest of the government's opponent Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr. In Mali, al-Qaida militants took control of the northern region of the country. Japan expressed protest to China due to the appearance of Chinese ships near the disputed SenkakuIslands. Turkey has conducted naval exercises on the southern coast of Cyprus, prompting criticism from the authorities of the island. Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement on maritime delimitation in the Black and AzovSeas. India tested a ballistic missile Agni-1, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. In Japan, floods killed more than 20 people; evacuation of the population from the southern regions of the country continues.

Comments on the week's events by members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center

p7327_2.jpgIrma Arguello (Argentina), Founder and Chair of the Nonproliferation for Global Security Foundation – by e-mail from Buenos Aires: In the summer of 2012 no big event has generated a climate of high insecurity in Latin America, but there are several issues which could be pointed out as destabilizing. There is some concern about the relationship of the Bolivarian America (Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua) with Iran, which has control of a port in Venezuela and has helped build drones  in that country. Iran has important business in Ecuador and recently Iranian president visited Bolivia, signing agreements in the field of mining industry. The impeachment of President of Paraguay Fernando Lugo and his ousting from office had a negative impact on the security climate in the region. On the one hand, the procedure passed in full accordance with the constitution of the country, not through a military coup, which is usual for many countries in the region. On the other hand, this event raised tensions in the region and led to harsh criticism from Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. Argentina's intention to resurface the Falklands conflict with the U.K., adds some tension to the region. The news of Hugo Chavez's possible terminal illness and the uncovered important links with the FARC, risk turning this country into a state closely related with drug-trafficking. If Chavez definitively leaves the presidency, the situation in Venezuela could be a source of regional imbalance considering the Chavez regime's political and economic influence throughout Latin America. The intensification of the arms race that began in 2009 is also among concerning factors. Reports in March proved that military spending in the region doubled in less than five years, and that it will increase.

p7327_3.jpgFarhad Tolipov (Uzbekistan) - Independent political analyst - by phone from Tashkent: Exit/suspension of membership of Uzbekistan in the CSTO is as officials and analysts widely recognized a quite expected event. The persistent attempt of the CSTO member states to as soon as possible resolve the issue on the establishment of collective rapid reaction forces and their deployment in Central Asia was the last straw that broke Tashkent' patience. Putting the question in such way caused principal disagreement in Uzbekistan. There is another aspect of the problem that is associated not only with Uzbekistan but also with the rejection of U.S. and NATO presences in the region by CSTO members. In accordance with the provisions of the CSTO member-states are obliged to coordinate the presence of forces of third-party countries in their territory with other participants of the organization; this also did not satisfy the Uzbek authorities. Today CSTO, as well as any other regional structure, cannot pretend on the status of the sole and exclusive provider of security in the region. In this context, the question of revising the whole architecture of security in Central Asia becomes relevant and the CSTO should understand that it is better to consider other providers of security in the region. Still the organization is not ready for this. Not by chance, Uzbekistan in recent times has been more and more inclined to a bilateral format of relationship in addressing critical security issues. At the same time, the republic's authorities tried to demonstrate that demarche in relation with the CSTO did not affect Russian-Uzbek relations. The meeting of the presidents of the two countries in June demonstrated the continued high level of relations between them. However, it is not excluded, that in Uzbekistan's decision to leave the CSTO there is a hidden geopolitical plan associated with the upcoming rearrangement of the order in the region after 2014.

The iSi index is calculated weekly and monthly. A weekly iSi value is published on Tuesdays in Kommersant Daily (www.kommersant.ru) accompanied by brief comments explaining Index fluctuations. Results of the monthly iSi calculations are published on the first working day of each month at the PIR Center website at www.pircenter.org

Comments

 
 
loading