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iSi Monthly For August 1, 2012

09.08.2012

 MOSCOW, AUGUST 9, 2012. PIR PRESS - p7347_1.jpgThe value of International Security Index iSi as of August 1, 2012 stands at 2745 points, which is 26 points higher if compared to the previous month. 

A slight increase of the Index iSi is associated with the entry into power of the new President of Egypt, parliamentary elections successfully held and the victory of liberal forces in Lybia. These events led to a relative stabilization of socio-political situation in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, military threat has not reduced in Syria, making negative effect on the value of Index iSi. In July, violent clashes between the army and the rebels erupted in the country with renewed force. In the village of Tremseh  a massacre of civilians took place, over 200 people died. In the middle of July government forces started a military operation in the city of Aleppo, country's economic center. On July 19 Russia and China, vetoed the UN Security Council resolution calling for sanctions against the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Special Representative of the UN and Arab League on the Syrian settlement General Kofi Annan submitted his resignation due to the lack of progress on the situation in Syria.

In Lebanon, on the background of events in Syria, there were clashes between supporters and opponents of the regime of Bashar al-Assad. 

In Saudi Arabia, there have been massive protests among the Shiite population following the arrest of the government's opponent Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr.

In Libya, on July 7 parliamentary elections were held, the liberal Alliance of National Forces became the winner. Political forces have begun to form a national unity government.

 In Egypt, President Mohammed Morsi, who just entered into power, promised to keep all the international treaties and obligations of the country.

In Israel, the center-left party Kadima has quitted the ruling coalition because of disagreements on the law on military service, under which Israeli Arabs and ultra-Orthodox Jews will be subject to compulsory conscription. In Libya, the liberal "Alliance of national forces" wonthe parliamentary elections, the political forces of the country began to form a government of national unity.

Iran has more than 10% increased the number of its centrifuges for uranium enrichment. On July 2  Iran tested a ballistic missile capable to strike targets in Israel.

Turkey on July 15 has conducted naval exercises on the southern coast of Cyprus, prompting criticism from the authorities of the island.

In Thailand, in the south of the country on July 18 extremists committed an armed attack on the village of Narathiwat, there are victims.

In the southern Philippines in July clashes between the army and the Islamists group Abu Sayyaf  erupted. In Madagascar the army suppressed the revolt of rebellious soldiers at a military base.

In Sudan at the beginning of July mass protests because of economic problems caused by the unresolved conflict with South Sudan broke out. In Darfur, a region of Sudan clashes between government forces and the rebels of Justice and equality movements resumed.

In Mali on July 11 al-Qaida militants took control of the northern region of the country.

In Madagascar on July 22 the army suppressed the revolt of rebellious soldiers at a military base.

Terrorist acts were committed in Pakistan, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.

Pakistan on July 4 has officially approved the resumption of NATO cargo transit through the territory of the country.

India on July 13 tested a ballistic missile Agni-1, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.

Japan expressed protest to China about the appearance of Chinese ships near the disputed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.

In the east of Tajikistan in July a special operation against illegal armed groups suspected of the murder of General intelligence Abdullo Nazarov is continued.

Uzbekistan introduced a ban on the deployment of foreign military bases on its territory. 

 On July 12 Russia and Ukraine x reached an agreement on maritime delimitation in the Black and Azov Seas.

In the North of Kosovo, Serbs blocked the highway in a sign of non-recognition of the authorities in Pristina. 

In Spain, anti-government protests against increasing taxes and reduction of unemployment benefits escalated into clashes with police, 26 people were injured.

In Russia, in Krasnodar region more than 170 people died as a result of floods. Earthquake in China, floods in the DPRK and  India,  storm in the U.S.A. are also among negative events of the month.

The iSi index is calculated weekly and monthly. A weekly iSi value is published on Tuesdays in Kommersant Daily (www.kommersant.ru) accompanied by brief comments explaining Index fluctuations. Results of the monthly iSi calculations are published on the first working day of each month at the PIR Center website at www.pircenter.org

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