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PIR Center international seminar became a platform where the representatives from Russian Foreign Ministry and Rosatom spoke together with representatives from the USA, Iran, Israel, Egypt, Turkey, Jordan, UAE and the Arab League.

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US military actions against Iran: scenarios and consequences

19.09.2012

MOSCOW, SEPTEMBER 19, 2012. PIR PRESS – “Will the USA go as far as to employ military force to resolve Iranian crisis? The answer is ambiguous. The very fact that military solution of the problem is not excluded is used as an instrument of pressure on Iranian leadership. Iran experiences real threat from the USA and prepares to counter it. Some experts reckon that the threat of American attack urges Iranian leadership to speed up  their nuclear weapon production process” - Vitaly Tsygichko, Chief Research Fellow of the Institute for System Analysis of Russian Academy of Sciences.

On September 13, 2012 the Board of Governors of the IAEA passed another resolution condemning Iran for non-fulfillment of requirements to halt uranium enrichment work. In November, presidential elections are to be held in the USA, and the new administration will have free hand regarding the implementation of a war scenario.

Cover.jpg “Will the USA go as far as to employ military force to resolve Iranian crisis? The answer is ambiguous. The very fact that military solution of the problem is not excluded is used as an instrument of pressure on Iranian leadership. Iran experiences real threat from the USA and prepares to counter it. Some experts reckon that the threat of American attack urges Iranian leadership to speed up  their nuclear weapon production process.” - notes Vitaly Tsygichko, Chief Research Fellow of the Institute for System Analysis of Russian Academy of Sciences. “In the meantime there are multiple impediments to the USA starting military campaign against Iran. In the first place, it’s the rejection of any new ventures by the majority of American society. The White House and Congress are compelled to take account of such sentiments. Failures in Afghanistan, where the USA has stuck for indefinitely long term without clear prospects, have made it unlikely that a new front in the Middle East will be opened, contrary to the opinion of electoral majority. Besides, many prominent American experts, politician, and military understand negative consequences of starting a war against Iran, and it will be difficult to persuade Congress on its necessity,” – continues expert in his article “U.S. Military Operation Against Iran: Possible Scenarios and Their Consequences” which will be published in the winter issue of the Security Index journal.

Speaking of the possible U.S. attack against Iran, V. Tsygichko discerns three scenarios: preventive short-time bombing-missile strike against country’s nuclear infrastructure and critical objects of armed forces; continuous air operation using aviation and missiles of different type and purpose, during which not only objects of nuclear complex and armed forces will be destroyed but also state administration facilities, civilian and industrial infrastructure; and the air-land operation, which in addition to the tasks of air operation involves occupation of part of country’s territory and key strategic objects.

Full text of the article is already available at PIR Center website (in Russian).

Other publications on the subject:

Article of the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Ryabkov:

Sanctions against Iran Pointless? (in Russian)

For all information on publications, subscription to the Security Index journal and advertising contact Deputy Editor-in-Chief Irina Mironova, tel. +7 (495) 987 1915, fax +7 (495) 987 1914, e-mail: [email protected] .

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