Experts

  • Affiliation : President, President, The Middle East Institute (MEI)
  • Affiliation : Director of OSCE Academy
complete list

Related articles

The current crisis around Qatar formally began on June 5 when the Persian Gulf monarchies led by Saudi Arabia, as well as Egypt and a number of other states declared a diplomatic blockade and imposed sanctions against Doha. Its development has already led to the formation of a (situational) bipolar ...

On April 26-27 an event took place in Moscow that brought together the leading military specialists and practitioners in the field of international security from 86 countries - the Russian MoD’s VI Moscow Conference on International Security (MCIS). While last year’s conference was attended by more ...

International Security Index iSi decreased to 2778 points. Satanovsky, Dunay comment events of the week

02.12.2014

MOSCOW, DECEMBER 2, 2014. PIR PRESS “Islamists in Afghanistan and Syria will not hand over their positions; US and allied states’ strikes against the Islamic state have not brought the expected results. Among the most positive developments of the period in the Middle East, it is worth noting the severe reaction of Israel and Egypt to the provocations of Islamists in their own territory. As events unfold in the Middle East, the situation will worsen due to the military expansion of the Islamists throughout the region,” --   President of the Institute of Middle East Studies Evgeny Satanovsky. 

The new weekly International Security Index iSi was published in Kommersant Daily (in Russian)

During the week of November 24 – December 1, 2014, the International Security Index iSi decreased to 2778 points. In northern Nigeria as a result of a series of terrorist attacks near a mosque, 120 people were killed. In Afghanistan, a terrorist attack on a volleyball match led to the deaths of 45 people; fighting between the Taliban and the Afghan army broke out in the southern province of Helmand. In Egypt, there were violent clashes between Islamists and security forces. In Libya, the army launched a series of air strikes on extremist positions in Tripoli. Iran and the six international mediators failed to adopt a comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear program. In the US, in Ferguson, riots broke out against the justification of the police officer who shot and killed a teenager in August. In Hong Kong, once again demonstrations erupted calling for reform of the electoral system. OPEC decided not to cut oil production, which led to a drop in prices for oil to 72 dollars per barrel.

Comments on the week's events by members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center

Evgeny Satanovsky (Russia), President of the Institute of Middle East Studies – via phone from Moscow:  The global situation continues to deteriorate. Islamists in Afghanistan and Syria will not hand over their positions; the US and allied states’ strikes against the Islamic state have not brought  the expected results. Among the most positive developments of the period in the Middle East, it is worth noting the severe reaction of Israel and Egypt to the provocations of Islamists in their own territory. As events unfold in the Middle East, the situation will worsen due to the military expansion of the Islamists throughout the region.                  

Pál Dunay, (Hungary), Director of OSCE Academy in Bishkek - via e-mail from Bishkek: ForThe opposition (или “confrontation”) between Russia and the West regarding Ukraine had a large impact on the state of security in the Euro-Atlantic area. The opposition  extends to various dimensions of cooperation; it is not confined to military relations. It has gained a  “philosophical” dimension regarding the Russian Federation’s long-term intentions.. As thinking is often based on worst-case assumptions, it is increasingly difficult to reverse the negative spiral and return to cooperation. It has also affected other states in the former Soviet Union.

In Europe and NATO, Russia searches for support and supports those political forces that are ready to express a different opinion on the relations between Russia and the West and on the EU and US sanctions. Such support provided to the Hungarian government and elements of the Czech leadership (President Milos Zeman and former President Vaclav Klaus) alerted the West that Russia has been preparing for a lasting confrontation.

The Russian Federation has been actively seeking the support of states, like Serbia, which have remained in limbo and which may be used as part of Russia’s plan to gain access to products, which are no longer exported, to Russia.

The former Soviet Republics  perceived the Russian involvement in Ukraine as sign of a new course in Moscow that intends to curtail the sovereignty of those states more than ever. Though Russia has the ability to gain support for her actions  from many states in the former Soviet area for, this often requires some pressure on her partners. Moreover, an unfortunate passing statement (e.g. about the statehood of Kazakhstan) increased concerns further. One could identify this as a hesitant partnership.

Russia has also played a more active role than ever  in the post-Soviet space, initiating an allied relationship with Abkhazia, paying a high-level military visit to Azerbaijan, etc. Furthermore, Russia has intensified her efforts to institutionalize relations with other states of the former Soviet space. This is reflected in the desire to expand the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Union and more intensively than ever  portraythe CSTO as a single alliance.

For all the questions concerning the International Security Index please contact Galiya Ibragimova by e-mail at ibragimova at pircenter.org    

Comments

 
 
loading