Experts

  • Position : Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Sri Lanka to the Russian Federation
  • Affiliation : Embassy of Sri Lanka to the Russian Federation
  • Affiliation : Chairman of the Executive Board, PIR Center; Co-Chair of the Trialogue Club International.
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International Security Index iSi increased to 2790 points. Buzhinsky, Jayatilleka comment events of the week

10.12.2014

MOSCOW, DECEMBER 10, 2014. PIR PRESS – “The pessimistic scenario leaves open the beginning of a war between Russia and Ukraine, and even further clashes between Russia and NATO. Such turn of events is possible, if the Ukrainian war party decides to solve the problem of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk republics by force, or if the rebels resume hostilities in an attempt to break the economic blockade. In any of these scenarios, it will be difficult for Russia to maintain the position of a neutral observer, especially if the question arises about the military defeat of the self-proclaimed republics”, - PIR Center Senior Vice President, Lieutenant General (Retired), Evgeny Buzhinsky (Russia).

The new weekly International Security Index iSi was published in Kommersant (in Russian)

During the week of December 1 – 7, 2014, the International Security Index iSi increased to 2790 points. In Ukraine, the authorities in Kiev and the rebels in the southeast of the country agreed on the terms of the armistice; Ministers of the OSCE countries during the meeting in Basel could not come to a consensus on the Ukrainian crisis and adopt a final document. In the parliamentary elections in Moldova, the Socialist Party got the majority. In Syria, the army repelled the attack on military airfield launched by the militants of Islamic state in Deir ez-Zor. In Jerusalem, there were clashes between Palestinians and Israelis. In the United States protests against racial discrimination by the police resumed. In Nigeria, Boko Haram militants attacked the city of Damaturui and killed 150 people. In Chechnya, gunmen attacked the security forces; there were victims. Terrorist acts were committed in Iraq and Somalia.

Comments on the week's events by members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center

Evgeny Buzhinsky (Russia), PIR Center Senior Vice President, Lieutenant General (Retired)  by phone from Moscow: The coup d’état in Ukraine and the following events –the reunification of Crimea and the civil war in the Donbass were the central events of 2014. Russia's security policy in 2015 will be determined by the development of the events in southeastern Ukraine. The pessimistic scenario leaves open the beginning of a war between Russia and Ukraine, and even further clashes between Russia and NATO. Such turn of events is possible, if the Ukrainian war party decides to solve the problem of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk republics by force, or if the rebels resume hostilities in an attempt to break the economic blockade. In any of these scenarios, it will be difficult for Russia to maintain the position of a neutral observer, especially if the question arises about the military defeat of the self-proclaimed republics.

The success or failure of the international coalition in the fight against Islamic state will determine the situation in the world and in the Middle East. The U.S. ground operation against the Islamists is still not improbable; this scenario would trigger the mobilization of all radical Islamist groups in the fight against the hated Americans.

Dayan Jayatilleka (Sri Lanka), Ambassador, Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva, Senior Lecturer in Politics at the University of Colombo – by e-mail from Colombo: For South Asia region the election of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister of India was one of the most important events in 2014, as it commenced the process of an accelerated Indian resurgence in the world order,. In 2015, the collusion and contention inside the US – China - India triangle in the Asian region and in the Indian Ocean will be the among the key security issues.

Among major  trends of 2015 one should also mention the  overgrowth of the Western hostility towards Russia and the attempt of strategic encirclement of Russia, and the emerging equation between Russia and China as a potential economic, geopolitical and geostrategic counterweight to the Atlantic hegemony.

For all the questions concerning the International Security Index please contact Galiya Ibragimova by e-mail ibragimova at pircenter.org

       

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