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  • Affiliation : PIR Center
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Vladimir Orlov: “Russia and the United States should resume a comprehensive dialogue on global nuclear proliferation threats” image

On January 19, 2021, Dr. Vladimir A. Orlov, Director of the PIR Center, gave an interview to Security Index journal.

 

SECURITY INDEX: In your recent op-ed column, co-authored with Sergey Semenov and published by Kommersant Daily, you stated that “Russia and the United States, as major nuclear-weapo...

The Middle East remains one of the zones of high tension and instability in the contemporary world. Today, new challenges – e.g., international terrorism, the crises in Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, and Syria – are adding to the old and deeply rooted problems created by the Arab-Israeli conflict. The un...

Analysis of the "political" agreement of Iranian nuclear program

03.04.2015

MOSCOW, APRIL 3, 2015. PIR PRESS – «The only truly vulnerable point of the framework agreement on Iran's nuclear program remains a matter of lifting the sanctions. It is obvious that the parties were unable to reach the common ground, the wording was left as general as possible. To lift the sanctions Iran needs to convince the IAEA that it had complied with all provisions of the agreement. But, if the reduction in the number of centrifuges is easily verifiable, the removal of questions on "possible military dimensions" of Iranian nuclear program, going back as far as 1990-s, may be a long-lasting and complex process», ­– PIR Center "Russia and Nuclear Nonproliferation" Program Director Andrey Baklitskiy.

On April 2, 2015, in Lausanne, Switzerland, the parties completed another stage of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program. P5+1 and Iran managed to agree on the Parameters for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action regarding the Nuclear Program of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The parameters will form the basis of a comprehensive agreement on Iran's nuclear program, which is to be signed by the end of June 2015.

According to agreed parameters, Tehran is committed to reduce the number of installed centrifuges from 19 000 to 6 014, turn the underground Fordo complex into research center, reduce its stockpile of low-enriched uranium from 10 000 to 300 pounds, to modify the Arak heavy water reactor and to strengthen cooperation with the IAEA. The restrictions imposed on the Iranian nuclear program will vary from 10 to 25 years. In their turn, after the implementation of these parameters, P5+1 countries committed to drop sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council. Unilateral EU sanctions must also be removed and U.S. sanctions – suspended.

In an op-ed for the website of the Kommersant newspaper (in Russian) PIR Center "Russia and Nuclear Nonproliferation" Program Director Andrey Baklitskiy said: "The only truly vulnerable point of the framework agreement on Iran's nuclear program remains a matter of lifting the sanctions. It is obvious that the parties were unable to reach the common ground, the wording was left as general as possible. To lift the sanctions Iran needs to convince the IAEA that it had complied with all provisions of the agreement. But, if the reduction in the number of centrifuges is easily verifiable, the removal of questions on "possible military dimensions" of Iranian nuclear program, going back as far as 1990-s, may be a long-lasting and complex process".

According to Andrey Baklitskiy, "each party could present the agreement as its victory: Iran has not de facto closed any of its nuclear facilities and retained its enrichment capabilities, while getting a clear prospect for lifting sanctions. P5+1 succeeded in cutting Tehran’s nuclear program to a harmless level, gained new tools for monitoring and retained the ability to use sanctions in case of violation of the agreement. In the end we are going into three interesting months, when promising principles agreed upon in Lausanne, will be transformed into a legally binding agreement".

PIR Center is closely monitoring the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program as part of its project: “Iranian Nuclear Program: Russia’s Interests".

For questions regarding the project, please contact the PIR Center “Russia and Nuclear Nonproliferation” Program Director Andrey Baklitskiy by telephone +7 (495) 987 19 15 or email at baklitsky at pircenter.org.

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