• Affiliation : Director General, Russian International Affairs Council
  • Affiliation : Chairman and Founder, Gulf Research Center, President of Sager Group Holding
  • Position : President
  • Affiliation : Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
  • Position : Consultant
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
  • Affiliation : Independent Libyan Academic, Journalist
  • Position : Chairman of the Executive Board
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
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International Expert Group on Global Security in 2016


MOSCOW, JANUARY 19, 2016. PIR PRESS – “In 2016, public opinion will have to strike a balance between democracy and security. As the demands placed on great powers to counter threats continue to grow, overall cohesion is weakened and the current situation worsens. If terrorist groups decide to use weapons of mass destruction, the negative repercussions will be felt across the globe. The threat increases as great powers engage in heavy military build-up.” – Sergio Duarte, member of the International Expert Group of PIR Center.

In an exclusive article for the journal ‘Vlast’, the members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center evaluated the outcomes of 2015 and predicted the factors that will determine the state of security in 2016.

The International Security Index (iSi) is a barometer that assesses threats to the security and welfare of citizens. The deterioration of the state of global security caused a drop in the annual base indicator of the iSi index for 2016 to 3000 points, as compared to last year’s figure of 3010. A more detailed account of the events of 2015 can be found in 2015’s final issue of ‘Vlast’: “From Yemen to Paris. Foreign policy results of the year in the International Security Index” (in Russian).

In the first issue of the new year, the members of the International Expert Group offer the readers of ‘Vlast’ their insights into “What awaits the world this year.”

Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, predicts that “in 2016, the fate of the Minsk agreement as well as the development of a possible new format of discussion on a solution of the Ukrainian problem will have an impact on the security of Russia and the CIS. The Middle East will remain another problem, specifically the prospects for building a coalition to coordinate efforts in the fight against the ‘Islamic State’ (IS, an organization that has been banned in Russia) and for an agreement on political transition in Syria.”

Abdulaziz Sager (Saudi Arabia), chairman of the Gulf Research Center, considers the relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which lie at the heart of all relations in the region, to be among the central problems of the Middle East in 2016. “The second major question will concern the ability of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf to manage the regional economy in conditions of low oil prices, which are unlikely to recover throughout the year.”

Mustafa Fetouri (Lybia), independent analyst and journalist, maintains that “the ignorant leaders of the Middle East have fallen for the exaggerated Western myth of the conflict between Sunnis and Shiites.”

Evgeny Buzhinsky (Russia), chairman of the Executive Board of the PIR Center, assesses the impact of the U.S. domestic political arena on world affairs: “We should not expect any major changes in the American stance on fundamental issues on the global agenda before the elections. We might see certain adjustments, particularly as far as Syria is concerned.”

The International Expert Group of the PIR Center consists of experts from Russia, India, Iran, China, the USA, Hungary, Turkey, South Africa, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Sri Lanka and Uzbekistan.

The International Security Index is an integrated indicator of the level of security threats and the welfare of the global population. The iSi index uses an innovative methodology developed by the PIR Center. The index is calculated in two stages. In the first stage, the base level of the index is defined, which reflects the ideal level of international security. In the second phase, all events that occurred globally over a given period of time– a week, month, or quarter – are evaluated and assigned a deviation from the ideal index value.

For all questions concerning the International Security Index, please contact Galiya Ibragimova via email at ibragimova at