Experts

  • Position : Consultant
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
  • Position : Consultant
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
  • Affiliation : Chairman of the Executive Board, PIR Center; Co-Chair of the Trialogue Club International.
  • Position : Analyst
  • Affiliation : Institute for International Studies MGIMO University
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Andrey Baklitskiy

The future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) may soon be clarified. There is little doubt in Tehran that US will withdraw from the JCPOA. PIR Center consultant Andrey Baklitskiy, who had recently visited Teheran for participating in Russian-Iranian Dialogue, shares his view on the fu...

_2020~1.PDF On April 24, 2018 the Director of the Foreign Ministry Department for Security Affairs and Disarmament and the Head of the Russian delegation Vladimir Yermakov presented a statment in Geneva during the Second session of the Preparatory Committee for the 2020 NPT Review Process. 

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Future of the Iran Deal under the New US Administration

25.11.2016

MOSCOW. NOVEMBER 25, 2016. PIR PRESS – “It is unlikely that the denunciation of the agreement on Iran's nuclear program will be a priority of the new US president. Mr. Trump, who has declared his readiness to talk Kim Jong-un out of possession of nuclear weapons, would more likely attempt to bargain with Tehran for more favorable terms and conditions. The problem is that neither President of Iran Hassan Rouhani, running for re-election in May 2017, nor the country’s Supreme Leader, confident that the deal was already tilted into US favor, would accept any further concessions”, – PIR Center “Russia and Nuclear Nonproliferation” Program Director Andrey Baklitskiy.

The election of Donald Trump to be the next president of the United States will lead to a noticeable change in American foreign policy. The list of agreements under threat will include the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear program – one of the few success stories of the international community in the field of nuclear non-proliferation in the past decades.

US President-elect called the JCPOA “the worst deal in history” and even promised to “dismantledismantle the disastrous agreement with Iran”. The significant part of the Washington establishment, including the two candidates for the post of Secretary of State (Ambassador John Bolton and Senator Bob Corker), and the Republican majority in Congress, refers to agreement with Iran even more aggressively than Mr. Trump.

Commenting the situation for the Kommersant Daily (in Russian), PIR Center “Russia and Nuclear Nonproliferation” Program Director Andrey Baklitskiy noted, “It is unlikely that the denunciation of the agreement on Iran's nuclear program will be a priority of the new US president. Mr. Trump, who has declared his readiness to talk Kim Jong-un out of possession of nuclear weapons, would more likely attempt to bargain with Tehran for more favorable terms and conditions. The problem is that neither President of Iran Hassan Rouhani, running for re-election in May 2017, nor the country’s Supreme Leader, confident that the deal was already tilted into US favor, would accept any further concessions”.

PIR Center is closely monitoring the situation around the Iranian nuclear program. In an entry in our blog (in Russian), the PIR Center consultant Yulia Sveshnikova and Vahid Hosseinzadeh described the impressions in Tehran of the election of Donald Trump as the US president.

At the end of October of 2016 Special Advisor to PIR Center Vladimir Orlov took part in the meeting of the working group to resolve the situation around the Iranian nuclear program in Istanbul with participation of the representatives from China, Egypt, Israel, India, Iran, Sweden, Turkey, US and others.

On November 15, 2016 PIR Center's Executive Board Chairman Evgeny Buzhinskiy discussed the US-Russian cooperation on Iran's nuclear program under the new administration During his visit to the Centre of National Interest (USA).

PIR Center consultant Adlan Margoev is preparing a research paper regarding the experience of the Russian-American cooperation on issues related to the Iranian nuclear program.

In April 2016 the PIR Center Program Director Andrey Baklitskiy and Director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at Hudson Institute Richard Weitz prepared a Valdai Paper “The Iranian deal: opportunities and obstacles for Russian-US cooperation”. Commenting on the possibility of Washington withdrawal from the agreement, the authors wrote, “Even if the US leaves the agreement, it will not mean the end of the JCPOA. The good will of the remaining participants could compensate for a US withdrawal. The lifting of the UN and EU sanctions could provide a sufficient stimulus for Iran to continue to implement its part of the deal, which can then be modified. If the US re-imposes unilateral sanctions on foreign businesses operating in Iran, Russia and the other parties to the agreement should protect their companies working with Iran”.

For questions, regarding the PIR Center program "Russia and Nuclear Nonproliferation", please contact the Program Director, Andrey Baklitskiy, by phone +7 (495) 987 19 15 or e-mail baklitsky@pircenter.org.   

 

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