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PIR PRESS NEWS

05.08.2022

PIR Center continues a new section "PIR Test". This project in the form of a game carries equally educational, research and analytical meaning. Users are given the opportunity to take the test - to answer one of the designated questions. Our today's PIR Test is dedicated to the international document that is considered to be the very first to become the forerunner of the modern arms control system.

01.08.2022

PIR Center is taking part in the 10th NPT Review Conference on August 1-26, 2022, where for almost a month at the UN headquarters in New York, delegations from 191 signatory countries of the NPT will discuss the implementation of this important agreement in the field of international security.

27.07.2022

This research paper attempts to place nuclear disarmament and arms control in the context of the sustainable development agenda. In particular, the paper examines the possibility of applying the experience and specific mechanisms of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to create new incentives for nuclear arms control and disarmament. Considering the devastating environmental consequences of nuclear weapons use, the nuclear-weapon states should take responsibility for possessing nuclear weapons just as they took responsibility for carbon emissions.

27.07.2022

The 2022 Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, inherited from covid 2020 and repeatedly postponed due to the raging pandemic, opens in New York on August 1. Four weeks of work of the NPT member States delegations – what will it be: a breakthrough to a more reliable cementing of the Treaty? Beating around the bush and straining to demonstrate its own indispensability? Or a harsh disputes that will call into question both the value and the effectiveness of this document?

iSi Methodology

iSi is determined in accordance with an original method developed by the PIR Center. It indicates the general level of the state of international security in the military, political, economic, and environmental spheres. It also takes into account the impact of nongovernmental actors (in particular, terrorist activity).

The most important characteristics of iSi are its comprehensiveness, robustness, and clarity. A great number of the factors that directly effect international security are reflected in iSi in a concentrated form. They include: the threat of global nuclear war, the number and intensity of local conflicts, the type of political relations between various countries and international organizations, the intensity and scale of terrorist activity, the stability of the global economy, and the threat posed by man-made catastrophes and epidemics.

The structure of iSi consists of two main parts. The first is the basic Index value. It is calculated on the basis of expert analyses of the probability of the occurrence of one or another global or regional event that would have a direct impact on international security. Each such event is given a certain score on the scale we have developed.

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In our calculations, total points increase as the probability of various events that might disrupt international security decreases, and, correspondingly, they decrease with an increase in the probability of such events. The total of the points for each factor is the iSi base value, a quantity calculated once per year. Each type of factor (military, political, economic, man-made catastrophe, and terrorist) has is “weighted” according to a scale of priorities and given an appropriate coefficient.  

The second part of iSi is calculated by evaluating actual events that have an influence on international security during a particular month. Each such event is assessed both according to its positive or negative influence on international security and according to its degree of influence (weak, moderate, or strong) according to the point scale we have developed. The degree of influence of each such factor is corrected depending on the country or region in which the event took place. In order to do this, we have developed a coefficient for the significance of particular regions (from 1 to 9). The number of positive points for each individual factor indicates the event's contribution to international security; negative marks indicate the negative influence of a particular factor.

The iSi Index, therefore, is calculated according to the following formula:

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Where

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= coefficient “weight” of global factors;

 

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= coefficient “weight” of regional factors;

 

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 = coefficient “weight” of local factors;

 

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 = coefficient indicating the importance of an individual region.

 

We have been calculating iSi on a monthly basis since July 2006. The increase or decrease in its absolute value indicates the trends in international security during the period in question, including both their direction and strength. The sum of all points provides the basic value of iSi, which shows how distant the global situation is at that moment from the “ideal”—when there are no threats at all.

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