Chronology

The U.S. signs Additional Protocol I to the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America (Tlatelolco Treaty).
26.05.1977
The signing of the Treaty between the USSR and the U.S. on the Limitation of Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems and the Interim Agreement on Certain Measures with Respect to the Limitation of Strategic Arms.
26.05.1972

International Security Index iSi

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PIR PRESS NEWS

26.05.2020

«The circumstances in which the whole world has found itself today have changed, but the importance of nuclear nonproliferation issues and U.S.-Russia dialogue on the NPT review process continues to bring together both young and major experts. I am very glad that modern technologies help us in this. Could anyone predict a year ago, at the last meeting of the working group, that the Review Conference would be rescheduled? Hardly. But this gives us time, and by “us” I mean Russia, the USA and the whole nonproliferation community, time to think creatively about how we can better prepare for it. And our Track 2.5 meetings are devoted to exactly such ideas, fresh and bright, from the next generation of experts», – Director of PIR Center, Head of the Center for Global Trends and International Organizations at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Federation, Professor at MGIMO University, Co-Chair of the working group Dr. Vladimir Orlov

25.05.2020

“I am a grounbreaker by nature. I need to create something new that will emotionally and intellectually resonates with millions of people”,  - said Lyubov Soldatkina, Head of the Department of expert analysis and control of the implementation of priorities and national projects of the All-Russia People's Front.

22.05.2020

The report presents the Russian Foreign Ministry views at the role of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in the current non-proliferation regime. The importance of NW and WMD-free zones as tools to strengthen regional security and stability is considered. Key contemporary challenges to the non-proliferation regime are noted. The author draws special attention to the fulfillment by the Russian side of its commitments under international agreements in the field of non-proliferation and disarmament.

iSi Methodology

iSi is determined in accordance with an original method developed by the PIR Center. It indicates the general level of the state of international security in the military, political, economic, and environmental spheres. It also takes into account the impact of nongovernmental actors (in particular, terrorist activity).

The most important characteristics of iSi are its comprehensiveness, robustness, and clarity. A great number of the factors that directly effect international security are reflected in iSi in a concentrated form. They include: the threat of global nuclear war, the number and intensity of local conflicts, the type of political relations between various countries and international organizations, the intensity and scale of terrorist activity, the stability of the global economy, and the threat posed by man-made catastrophes and epidemics.

The structure of iSi consists of two main parts. The first is the basic Index value. It is calculated on the basis of expert analyses of the probability of the occurrence of one or another global or regional event that would have a direct impact on international security. Each such event is given a certain score on the scale we have developed.

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In our calculations, total points increase as the probability of various events that might disrupt international security decreases, and, correspondingly, they decrease with an increase in the probability of such events. The total of the points for each factor is the iSi base value, a quantity calculated once per year. Each type of factor (military, political, economic, man-made catastrophe, and terrorist) has is “weighted” according to a scale of priorities and given an appropriate coefficient.  

The second part of iSi is calculated by evaluating actual events that have an influence on international security during a particular month. Each such event is assessed both according to its positive or negative influence on international security and according to its degree of influence (weak, moderate, or strong) according to the point scale we have developed. The degree of influence of each such factor is corrected depending on the country or region in which the event took place. In order to do this, we have developed a coefficient for the significance of particular regions (from 1 to 9). The number of positive points for each individual factor indicates the event's contribution to international security; negative marks indicate the negative influence of a particular factor.

The iSi Index, therefore, is calculated according to the following formula:

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Where

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= coefficient “weight” of global factors;

 

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= coefficient “weight” of regional factors;

 

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 = coefficient “weight” of local factors;

 

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 = coefficient indicating the importance of an individual region.

 

We have been calculating iSi on a monthly basis since July 2006. The increase or decrease in its absolute value indicates the trends in international security during the period in question, including both their direction and strength. The sum of all points provides the basic value of iSi, which shows how distant the global situation is at that moment from the “ideal”—when there are no threats at all.

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