Security Index Editorial Board
Yakushev, Michael V. image
Yakushev, Michael V.
  • Affiliation : Executive Vice-President for Cooperation with Public Authorities, PJSC VimpelCom
Fedorov, Yuri image
Fedorov, Yuri
  • Position : PIR Center Executive Board Member and Security Index Editorial Board Member
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
complete list
Security Index Authors
Yakushev, Michael V. image
Yakushev, Michael V.
  • Affiliation : Executive Vice-President for Cooperation with Public Authorities, PJSC VimpelCom
Demidov Oleg V. image
Demidov Oleg V.
  • Position : Consultant
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
Ibragimova Galiya image
Ibragimova Galiya
  • Position : Consultant
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
complete list

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2014, №107, Security Index

Security Index image
Issue: №107

SECURITY INDEX (Global Edition)

 No. 2 (107) Spring 2014



Global Trends, Today’s Bizarre Geopolitics, and What It Means for Russia and the World – Vladimir Orlov

A century after the First World War began, Europe and its security are now shaken by the New Cold War. It is multistakeholder-cold-war, different from the previous one, which took place on a bipolar world, – and yet equally dangerous. Factors that brought it to life include flourishing chaos in cyberspace, development of new types of weapons, and mounting uncertainties with regard to existing global or cross-regional organizations, clubs and alliances, including the UN. Their combination leaves quite little room for optimistic expectations concerning the near future of global processes.


Congratulations to the PIR Center 20th Anniversary – Sergei Ivanov, Sapar Isakov, Andrey Kolesnikov, Andrey Krutskikh, Sergey Lavrov, Sergei Prikhodko, Sergei Shoigu, Alexander Sinaisky, Anatoly Torkunov, Vladimir Voronkov, Mikhail Ulyanov, Linten Brooks, Tariq Rauf


CSTO Learning to Fight the Terrorist and Extremist Challenges in the Region Nikolay Bordyuzha

What are the key issues in focus of the agenda of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)? How has the structure and the governance model of the CSTO changed over the recent years, and what new priorities have emerged for its members? These questions also touch upon the evolving approach of the Organization towards countering the challenges to regional security, fueled by the international terrorism, extremism and others threats which highlighted by the CSTO Secretary General in his interview.

Is the Mankind on the Way Towards Technological Singularity? Dave Evans

The information technology revolution is going on, transforming the landscape of global development and international security in an unprecedentedly fast way. From 3D printing and augmented reality to cyborgization and predictive analytics, the digital technology generates new opportunities and new challenges for the world community. Where does this megatrend of digital progress lead the humanity? Should we get prepared for adapting familiar social, economic and security processes to the rise of artificial intelligence and the prologue of technological singularity?


Middle East Militarization: the Role of Russia (article two) – Natalia Kalinina

The role of Middle East in the Russian arms trade grows, with the region accounting for 20 percent of total Russian arms export and being second after the Asia Pacific. However, within this complicated region the market strategies, barriers and the demand compositions vary greatly, making successful competitive approach even more difficult. From the Gulf states with a market, quite restricted for the “newcomers”, to Israel, where Russia performs in quite unusual role of arms importer, single bullet strategies are not within view. Operating with a remarkably broad selection both in terms of geography and the arms trade market niches, the author concludes the comprehensive picture of Russia’s impact on the ongoing process of militarization in the Middle East region. The first part of this analysis was published in Security Index No. 4 (105) Fall 2013.

Myanmar Mania and the Lessons for Russia – Olga Skorokhodova

Over the recent years, Myanmar made several steps on a winding path of economic and political transformations. The government made a bid on opening of the national economy in order to attract foreign investors, and this strategy resulted in impressive investment boom. However, the experience of several years of Myanmar mania also reveals pitfalls and peculiarities of massive investments in this new national market. The current experience of major powers’ cooperation with Myanmar offers valuable lessons for Russia. Moscow and Naypyidaw share a significant historical background of economic and trade cooperation, and have perspective tracks and formats of its further development – but only if the mutual risks are well understood and mitigated..

Russia and the South-East Asia: Towards Partnership in the Nuclear Sphere  Ivan Zolotukhin

Amid the ongoing confrontation with the West, Russia’s foreign-policy course is pivoting towards the East, with the growing market of the South-East Asia promises opportunities for partnership in a number or areas, including peaceful nuclear energy industry. At the same time, Russia remains a guest in the region and it still must work out a formula of its involvement and participation in Southeast Asia. A successful strategy for cooperation with the regional countries should take into account major risks and challenge in the region such as the Fukushima syndrome, the lack of human resources and increasing competition both with alternative sources of energy and foreign market actors in the nuclear energy segment.


Outcomes of the Russian-US High-Level Working Group on the Iranian Nuclear Issue Andrey Baklitsky

The article provides a set of proceedings of the meeting of the Russian-US working group on Iranian nuclear issue, which was established in November of 2013 by PIR Center and the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies (NESA). The meeting of the group that took place in Gstaad, Switzerland and was later supplemented by the coordinators’ work in the first half of 2014, pursued the aim of supporting the positive dynamics of the process of negotiations between Iran and P5+1 and contributing to reaching of the Comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear program. The multifold set of expert views and recommendations provides an elaborated algorithm for all sides on the path towards the Comprehensive Agreement and the final resolution of the deadlock over the Iranian nuclear issue.


Common Agenda for Russia and ASEAN in Cyberspace: Countering Global Threats, Strengthening Cybersecurity, and Fostering Cooperation – Boris Vasilyev, Alexander Kalinin, Alexey Lukatsky, Mikhail Medrish, Vladimir Orlov, Viktor Tarusin, Mikhail Yakushev, Andrew Yarnykh.

Over a year after the 2013 APEC summit in Vladivostok, Southeast Asia retains and enhances its appeal to Russia as a promising platform for growing trade and economic ties. At the same time, against the backdrop of growing contradictions with the West, the regional actors in Southeast Asia, including ASEAN, are becoming increasingly important potential partners for Russia both in terms of economic and security cooperation. One major field of such cooperation is cybersecurity, observed under a two-fold perspective of trade cooperation and promotion of Russian solutions to the boosting, though highly competitive regional market, and strategic dialogue with the ASEAN states on ensuring the security of cyberspace on global and regional level. To succeed, the Russian side needs not only highest concentration of political will and diplomatic efforts, but effective engagement of private businesses and experts into its move to the ASEAN market.


Does The INF Treaty Have A Future? – Evgeny Buzhinsky

The expert community is increasingly raising the question of whether Russia should withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) today. Potential Russia’s pullout from the Treaty has been discussed since 2003. The issue remains controversial as the treaty is claimed to be detrimental to Russian national security. At the same time, the idea of initiating the collapse of yet another disarmament treaty raises serious concerns over its probable impact on strategic stability. Besides, a thorough analysis shows that unlike the ABM Treaty, the INF Treaty does not hamper Washington’s defense plans, and this fact leaves certain window of opportunities for the Treaty’s future.

Russian Armament Program 2020: Current State and Outlook – Yury Fedorov

The implementation of the State Armament Program to 2020 in Russia results in a massive renovation of weapons and military equipment in a scale, which is unmatched in the modern Russian history. The ambitious program reflects the undisputable priority of technologically upgraded and strengthened Armed Forces. However, the question remains open on how realistic the SAP-2020 targets and plans are – and it becomes even more topical as the international situation undergoes extensive deterioration. Can the Russian defense industry deliver such a massive increase in defense R&D and manufacturing under the press of sanctions? These questions also become vital for further progress of the SAP-2000 and successful launch of the new armaments program for the 2016-2025 period.

The CTBT and Strategic Relations between Russia, China and the United States – Nikita Perfilyev

Even though the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty has not yet entered into force, it already influences nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation in several practical ways. Those include increasing barriers for the would-be nuclear proliferators, placing constraints on the modernization of nuclear arsenals of the established nuclear weapons’ possessors and stimulating progress towards a world without nuclear weapons. At the same time, the perspectives the Treaty’s entry into force largely revolve around its ratification by China and the USA, with Russia’s approach to the already ratified Treaty also being taken into account. But regardless of the ratification bargaining and debates, development of the CTBT mechanism depends on achieving such practical goals as ensuring transparency of nuclear test sites and facilities.

Developing National Regulations to Support Nuclear Security: Lessons of the U.S. Support to Russia, Ukraine and Belarus – Dmitry Kovchegin

Development of national regulations supporting nuclear materials control and accounting and physical protection is a major part of ensuring states’ compliance with requirements of the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1540, with the IAEA playing a central role in this process. In case Russia, as well as Belarus and Ukraine after collapse of the Soviet Union, the process of elaboration of such regulations took place with a major contribution from the USA. The cases of the three countries which take into account the peculiarities of the regulatory environment and the process of developing capabilities necessary to establish the requirements, provides valuable experience which should be reassessed now, when the U.S. support in this field is going to become a turned page of history.


International Security Index in the First Half of 2014: The Cold Reality 2.0 – Galiya Ibragimova

The first half of 2014 was marked with dramatic changes in the landscape of the international relations and global security. The new Cold reality rapidly has emerged from the global and regional trouble spots, including the chaos in the Middle East, deteriorating conflict in the east of Ukraine, and maintaining geopolitical tension in the East Asia. The turbulent international environment affects Russia, but still goes far beyond any national borders. Galiya Ibragimova highlights the worrying banking turns of the International Security Index at this geopolitical rollercoaster.

BRICS in the Global Internet Governance Agenda – Oleg Demidov

The BRICS states that today together account for over 900 mln internet users, remain underrepresented in the global internet governance discussions. To erect the ICTs as another pillar in its agenda the ‘new giants’ should get more engaged in the policy-making process and demonstrate well-orchestrated leadership on such issues as the IANA functions transition, reform of the multistakeholder internet governance model, etc. More opportunities are hidden on the level of joint infrastructure projects, hardware and software solutions. However, to succeed the BRICS needs Russia’s input based on its well-elaborated approach to the information security and internet governance issues.


The Role of Security Assurances to Ukraine and the 1994 Budapest Memorandum: From the 1990s to the Crimea Crisis – Vladimir Orlov

Till 2014 the issue of nuclear weapons on Ukraine’s territory, and of security assurances to be given to Ukraine in return for becoming a non-nuclear weapon state, seemed to be resolved once and for all in the Trilateral Statement by the Russian, U.S. and Ukrainian presidents, and then in the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, both signed in 1994. However, the Crimean crisis made experts and decision makers raise the question whether the Budapest Protocol is still in force and what are the implications of potential answer for Ukraine; Crimea; and each of the three states that gave Ukraine the security assurances. The author of the article provided a retrospective analysis of the issue observing the Crimean crisis from half a year’s distance.




On Awe-Inspiring Progress